Phillies Trade Double A RHP Franklyn Kilomé for Asdrubal Cabrera

[Austinfan]

Move him to the bullpen and he's Tirado or Cordero.
Throwing 98, 99 doesn't make you a stopper, Garcia throws 97-99.
What makes SD stopper material is throwing 97-99 with explosive movement, plus a 98 MPH cutter and a nasty 88 slider and a changeup at 91.
And being able to throw those pitches for strikes.

Despite a FB that averages 96, hitters hit Garcia's 4 seamer at a .300 rate.
However they hit his slider at .159, and the last two years he's been mixing in a changeup at .182
Movement and command matter as much with a 4 seamer.

Some FBs are harder to hit, Velasquez doesn't throw harder than Pivetta, but his FB has late movement.
Problem for Velasquez is his curve and 2 seamer get pounded.
Pivetta's four seamer gets hit, but his curve is much better than Velasquez, both have good sliders, Pivetta's 2 seamer is better, and both pitchers' changeups are works in progress.

[andyb]

Kilome has secondary pitches though. When people think it is closer material it is not just velocity. You seem to be the only one who goes there with simplistic velocity-only analysis (like playing up the velocity of a fringe prospect like Waguspeak). Kilome was a prospect because he had velocity and projectability and secondary pitches. Command was his issue.

It is always better to have velocity than to not have it though. Scouting reports and projections consider more things though. It is part of the reason someone like Medina is probably a better prospect than someone like Enyel De Los Santos. Better secondary pitches. The velocity between the two is not that far apart.

[bkeich]

Move him to the bullpen and he's Tirado or Cordero.
Throwing 98, 99 doesn't make you a stopper, Garcia throws 97-99.
What makes SD stopper

Stopper = Starter who ends bad streaks
Closer = End of game reliever.

I assume you mean closer.

[allentown]

Kilome has had poor control the past 2 years. Cordero and Tirado had bad control. There is a big difference in degree of wildness. There also was a fairly big difference in swing-and-miss stuff, with Tirado/Cordero coming out on top in that particular comparison -- perhaps Kilome would get more whiffs in relief. I read he was doing more pitching to contact recently (last Winkelman column, I think) but if that is true, it is strange that his walk rate was as high as it was and left me wondering just how many walks he'd have if he had been pitching to get Ks.

Yes, here is the column:

Analysis of Franklyn Kilome/Asdrubal Cabrera deal

[andyb]

I was not opposed to necessarily trading Kilome because it was a fair price and there is significant risk in his profile. That does not mean it is not a potentially high end profile though. Sometimes it takes a raw 6'6" pitcher a bit longer. And he does have significant home/road splits this year (5.80/3.09 ERA). Now the walks are present in both places but the HRs are not. He may very well be pitching to contact and be wary of catching too much of the plate because he wants to keep the ball in the park.

We also do not know if his stuff would tick up in relief. The variety of opinion on him (8th vs 25th in the rankings) shows that some observers think it is less likely he will stay as a starter than others.

Even with the various plusses and minuses though, he is a pretty good starter and lots of pitchers have issues in Reading. His first start with Binghamton was a bit better. I worry he blossoms outside of the hellish pitching environment in Reading which hurts some pitchers more than others. No matter what though, he was a good prospect. JoJo Romero was better than he was on the Reading staff but I'd probably take Kilome over Suarez because of the higher ceiling.

[Austinfan]

Suarez blew by Kilome, De Los Santos is six months younger, at lower levels you don't take performance as seriously as stuff, Lakewood can make a mediocre arm look good, but by Lehigh and Reading, once you get to 22-23, you have to start performing.

It's not that Kilome isn't a prospect, but I see him as maybe the 6th best or so starting prospect in the system (De Los Santos, Suarez, Romero, Sixto, Medina, Irvin I'm not sure about. Suarez also had a home/away Reading split, but his away was a 1.76 ERA, 42K in 46 IP and .190 BA. I'm not sure he's ahead of Seabold. It's harder to judge the Lakewood pitchers, but one or two may excel next year in Clearwater.

Given the 40 man roster crunch this fall, it's likely Kilome wouldn't have been protected.

They really need to fix the Reading ballpark, it's just too extreme as a hitter's park, it probably isn't good for player development.

[andyb]

Suarez blew by Kilome, De Los Santos is six months younger, at lower levels you don't take performance as seriously as stuff,

This is where you go awry. All three prospects are clustered together in the rankings. Kilome has the highest ceiling. DLS in the middle, and Suarez has the lowest ceiling. Just because Suarez has more polish does not mean he "blew away" Kilome as a prospect. People who do this for a living rank them closely. Suarez may end up more of a bullpen piece in the long run simply because of the lower ceiling stuff.

Ranking prospects is not solely about their current statistics. No disputing Suarez and DLS are having better years and DLS is at a higher level. But they just don't have the stuff that Kilome does. You are probably the only one who thinks Suarez is dramatically better. And the DLS I saw in the majors had major holes in his game. Secondary pitches were average at best (not a whole lot of spin) and he short-arms the ball to provide deception but that might not work in the majors while also possibly leading to injury. You tend to love guys who put up stats in the minors because of polish and not stuff. Eshelman, Seabold, Suarez. Those guys don't tend to be good major leaguers because of lack of stuff. They are 5th starter types while Kilome could be a 3 or a closer if various scenarios unfold. Stats are not everything. You need to look at the whole picture.

[Austinfan]

Seabold has plenty of stuff, he's not Eshelman, just b/c they went to the same college, they're not the same player.

Suarez rapidly rose through the organization at ages 21-22, he's not a polished college pitcher, he was a LA pitcher who filled out, added velocity and figured it out. Does he have the low probability upside (probability is as important as ceiling) of Kilome? No. But does he have a much higher probability of being a ML starter? Yes.

[andyb]

Seabold has plenty of stuff, he's not Eshelman, just b/c they went to the same college, they're not the same player.

Then why was he ranked 25th when Kilome was ranked 10th by MLB.com (and unranked by many other lists). Because his stuff is average at best across the board. He is not the same as Eshelman, but also his stuff would rank well below average compared to most major league starters. 90-93 is not a whole lot of velocity and while he has a half decent change it is not a great one and his curve is below average.

Then you lose all credibility saying Suarez was not polished. That is the best thing about Suarez. Yes he picked up a bit on his fastball so it is consistently low 90s now. But that is an independent variable to his polish. He has a career minor league record of 2 BB/9 IP. He accumulated great stats in the lower minors when he was throwing in the 85-88 because of his polish. He does have an above average change. In general though his stuff is average at best. Then you ask the wrong question about whether he can be a ML starter. That deserves a "duh" as he already is a fringe MLB starter. The real question is whether he can be much better than a 5th starter and the lack of stuff might make the answer to that question no.

Ceiling and risk are two very different things. The low risk guys with average stuff often have great minor league stats, even age versus level. The higher risk guys often are mediocre till they put it together. I am guessing if I searched last year I would find you raving about Eshelman and complaining about how bad Velasquez and Pivetta were.

[Austinfan]

You constantly equate velocity with high ceiling, a mistake a lot of the rankings make as well.
Below 92 MPH, few pitchers will be better than a 4/5, because the margin of error is so small.
But once you average 92+, additional velocity has marginal value until you get close to 100, and at that point, for starters, arm injury is a real issue.

Suarez was 6'0 177 when signed, he's filled out and added velocity, up to 91-93 t95 at Clearwater last year, don't know what he's hitting this year, slider, changeup. If he's continued to add strength he may hit the 92+, especially for a LHP.
92.5 four seamer, 91.2 two seamer in his brief cameo. That's good enough if he can sustain it.
So command and mastery of his secondary pitches will determine his upside.

Eshelman has always been an outlier, he's been pitching better lately, but he lacks ML velocity, however there are a few "freaks" who've have succeeded with below par velocity, but it requires great command and secondary pitches. We'll see if he or Liebrandt (when he comes back from TJ surgery) can beat the odds.

I'd say more than velocity, stamina is the key to be a top of the rotation guy, that is, the arm strength to maintain good velocity through 100 pitches without having to overthrow and lose command. Better a guy who throws 94-96 free and easy for 100+ pitches than a guy throwing 97-99 with maximum effort who wears down after 60-70 pitches (which is why SD is in the pen).

[zambonir]

Good trade though right?

[allentown]

Below 92 MPH, few pitchers will be better than a 4/5, because the margin of error is so small.
But once you average 92+, additional velocity has marginal value until you get close to 100, and at that point, for starters, arm injury is a real issue.

You need to fine tune that argument. Almost impossible to be more than a 4/5 throwing a 91 MPH FB, but throw 92-93 and you can be a #1-3. Most of the top SP do not throw close to 100 (which I'd define as sitting 97 or higher and touching 99 on occasion). A fair number of guys do throw 94-95 and that is better than 92-93, so that with comparable control and secondary pitches they are going to populate the ranks of the #1/2 SP much more than the far more numerous kids who are able to throw a 92-93 FB. Above at least 92 mph and probably down to 90, the fraction of guys able to throw at a given velocity is likely a declining asymptotic function, since nobody sits 100.

[Austinfan]

All things held equal, more is better than less, but things aren't equal.

A lot of pitchers who throw 94-96 have "straight" FBs, and I think it's because it's tough to both throw with velocity, put good spin on the ball and maintain good command, Velasquez has an explosive FB (which I think means he puts more spin on his 4 seamer), Pivetta and Eflin do not, even though all three have similar velocity.

Two seamers are usually 1-2 MPH slower than four seamers (I've noticed some are called "sinkers"), but they vary in movement, Nola has a nasty two seamer that he throws with pinpoint control, Arrieta also has a nasty one but his command is more erratic.

The increase in velocity (especially out of bullpens who are averaging close to 4 innings a game) has resulted in eliminating "slow" bats in the majors, but it also means that a 95 MPH FB is a very hittable pitch for most ML hitters these days, even 97-98 have become hittable. And if you average 95, half your pitchers are that velocity or slower. So other skills have become relatively more valuable.

The Phillies hitters are a good example, most are dead FB hitters, they struggle against pitchers who can mix it up, especially ones with good changeups that keep them off balance. As you eliminate slow bats, the key skill for hitters seems to be recognition of the spin of the ball out of the pitcher's hand - if you can identify a breaking ball and wait on it you have a huge edge. One reason the changeup is the killer pitch (ask Nola) is that even those hitters will struggle to recognize a good change (the reason most pitchers don't like throwing it is that it takes years to learn how to throw a change without slowing down your arm and tipping the pitch).

[allentown]

I agree with everything you say in this post, but it is a very far cry from your initial position: once a pitcher can throw 92 mph, increased velocity doesn't matter, unless you can throw about 100 mph. Increased velocity makes everything else work better, if for no other reasons than that it makes the hitter focus more upon the FB with less time to make the decision to swing. We certainly all know that a starting pitcher should have 3 good pitchers, good command, and probably very good control to be a #3 or better starter. All of these things, including velocity and movement on the FB are important. Few pitchers have all of these things. It is a trade-off. Saying a pitcher can only throw an 89-91 mph FB doesn't mean he can't succeed, but it does mean all the other things need to be better than they otherwise would need to be for him to be successful. I wouldn't say the margin of error is less for the guy with the 90 mph FB than it is for the guy with poor secondary pitches or only one secondary pitch or a totally straight FB -- they are all at a disadvantage.

[Austinfan]

I never said more velocity doesn't matter, I said it has "marginal value", that is, the value of another 1 MPH is much smaller above 92 MPH than say from 89-92 MPH. At that point other factors become more important predictors of success.

So whether a young pitcher throws 94 or 96 on average is far less important than FB movement and command, it's easier to hit a 96 MPH straight FB down the middle than a 94 MPH four seamer with late movement on the edge of the plate. And whether that pitcher has plus secondary pitches he can command to set up that FB.

All else held equal, more is better than less, but rarely is all else held equal, and there is often some correlation, many young pitchers focus too much on velocity (radar guns are a BAD thing for young pitchers) and not enough on mechanics, how often do you see a pitcher "yank" a fastball trying to throw it harder and overthrowing it. Same with velocity and spin, my suspicion is that putting more spin on a four seamer tends to work against higher velocity.

Which is why to me, Stamina is the key to a young pitcher's future, a really strong young pitcher who can maintain velocity without laboring can refine mechanics and improve movement because he's not trying to sustain a level of velocity that requires overthrowing as his arm tires. So my ideal would be a pitcher who can throw 94 for a 100+ pitches with "minimal effort" where I can coach up command and smooth his mechanics, rather than someone pushing it up to 96-98 by using maximum effort, that's the guy I move to the bullpen.

That's why teams love big pitchers, but I think it's probably also biomechanics. It'll be interesting to see if Sixto can throw 100 pitches and maintain velocity, he may have to drop down to 96 MPH or so (boo ho ho). One reason I think Nola has been so successful is he stays within himself, he can pump it up to 95-96, but throws around 92 for most of the game and saves that extra oomph for when he needs it.