Phillies Trade Double A RHP Franklyn Kilomé for Asdrubal Cabrera

[andyb]

Hoskins does not have close to average or above average speed. Not even close to that. Maybe he can improve to merely below average defensively. Maybe not. One can say there are offensive benefits to getting him into the lineup in the outfield and still acknowledge he is bad out there. He could easily get worse too out there rather than better. The track record of 225 pound guys in the outfield is usually about them getting slower as they age into their late 20s.

[Austinfan]

Hoskins definitely has average speed, even stole a couple bases early in the season. I watch the games, he runs decently, he's not Herrera, but other than Quinn, who is? But he's faster than Burrell was in LF.
His problem is lack of instincts due to lack of experience, he gets late jumps on balls, so does Williams, but Williams isn't going to improve much at this point.
By the time Hoskins hits his late 20s, he'll be the 1B unless Listi/Hall/Ortiz are ripping the cover off the ball.

[LegoDoom]

Statcast Sprint Speed Leaderboard

Statcast Catch Probability

Hoskins seems pretty slow to me.

[zambonir]

The term "average" does have quantifiable meaning, after all.

[andyb]

The term "average" does have quantifiable meaning, after all.

But he is better than Castellanos.

Williams is the real "why isn't he better?" question because he DOES have above average speed. I will be the first to say however that he is not getting better out there and he just may not be that good. Hoskins just does not really have the possibility of getting better since he lacks adequate speed in the first place. He looks good because he catches all the easy ones. He just does not get to a lot of balls.

[frylock]

Without looking at everyone's defensive metrics, I agree with those saying this team has to be the worst defense in baseball. I'd be surprised if there is a plus defender as measured by defensive runs saved (or other advanced defensive metrics) of the starting lineup. If Alfaro gets better at avoid passed balls and keeping the ball in front of him, he'll be a plus catcher with his arm, if he isn't already. I consider Santana decent at first after his rough start. Kingery will probably be a plus second baseman. Aside from that, it's pretty "meh". Herrera is probably the next closest and makes some nice plays, but also misreads a decent bit (i.e. some of his amazing catches occurring after he breaks the wrong way). Franco fields bunts pretty well, but he's slow and has bad range.

But like mentioned above, I do wonder if that is by design (it would seem to be). With Kapler being super aggressive with the shifts, I agree they must have found something that clearly demonstrates you take the offense and the shifts can theoretically help mitigate some of the defensive shortcomings. Interesting.

[tom81]

Hoskins seems pretty slow to me.

But Hoskins really isn’t all that slower than Herrera, 26.3 vs 26.7 ft/sec. If you had say Quinn in CF the slow speed of Hoskins wouldn’t be as significant as he wouldn’t have to cover as much ground.

The trade off in offense over defense does seem to work much like the change in not bunting, unless it is with a really poor hitter such as a pitcher, or going with a 4 man bench. I really like that fact that the team is flying on the face of tradition and doing what they believe the analytics show them gives them the best chance to win.

[Lucky_Beagle]

At what point do elite starting pitchers say, I would rather sign with a team that has a good defense behind me? Do they ever say that? Maybe the elite don't care as they will do well anyways, how about the middle of the rotation guys who recognize a couple of good years can earn them a few million more over their careers if there numbers look better because of less hits on batted balls which can lead to less runs and better numbers. I realize currently the Phillies aren't/haven't been shopping for starting pitchers who can refuse to come but they may be soon.

[andyb]

But Hoskins really isn’t all that slower than Herrera, 26.3 vs 26.7 ft/sec.

It is the catch probability chart that is more telling though. Next to last in all of baseball. Raw speed is only one aspect of why he is a poor defender in the outfield though it is one where he is well below average and can't improve.

[tom81]

The key point which you mention is "Phillies aren't/haven't been shopping for starting pitchers who can refuse to come" All 5 of our current SP are in the top 53 in fWAR among SP and all are under team control till at least 2022. Only one is over 26 years old. Our top prospects are SP and we have a guy on the 60 day dl who is only 28 and has had a +3 WAR season who is also under team control for 3 more years. Our defense will probably be far different the next time we shop for a free agent pitcher.

[LegoDoom]

Hoskins seems pretty slow to me.

But Hoskins really isn’t all that slower than Herrera, 26.3 vs 26.7 ft/sec. If you had say Quinn in CF the slow speed of Hoskins wouldn’t be as significant as he wouldn’t have to cover as much ground.

I was mainly responding to the claim that Hoskins had average to above average speed (I thought I hit reply to AF, but I guess I didn't). I, too, was surprised at how close Hoskins and Herrera's peak speed was, but that is because of Herrera's number and not Hoskins. I really didn't put much thought into the numbers. I would guess that Herrera is quicker (gets to top speed in less time) than the numbers indicate or the common perception of Herrera's speed is simply wrong.

As andyb pointed out, combined with his below average speed and his catch probability chart, it seems unlikely that he can improve much.

But I agree with your 2nd paragraph and am curious how the team is valuing that trade off. Earlier in the season it seemed that poor defense cost the team a few games. However, maybe that was variance with a number of non-3 outcome games being strung together in a small sample. It obviously hasn't been a problem recently.

[EastFallowfield]

The reason to get a veteran starting pitcher is you don’t have to worry about inning limits.

[andyb]

Herrera has never really had great speed. I think his scouting grade would be about a 50 runner in terms of raw speed. He has decent instincts in both baserunning and fielding which play up his speed and allows him to be more effective than his raw speed would indicate. Of course all this is counter to stereotypes, but Herrera is one of those players whose instincts and skill make up for average tools.

[Austinfan]

Well, duh. Hoskins hasn't played OF since when?

It takes time to develop a feel for the position, reading balls off the bat, etc.

That's a different issue whether he's slow, if you can't run, that's hard to fix, if you lack experience, there's the possibility you can learn the position.

[andyb]

He played quite a bit of outfield in college and summer leagues so he is not new to it. At some point you just have to realize he is bad out there. It was a clear tradeoff to not put him at first base. The theory is that Klentak does not value defense that much, especially compared to his peers. That seems to be borne out in multiple moves (Hoskins in LF, Kingery at SS, Knapp at C, Cabrera now virtually anywhere).

You keep claiming Hoskins is getting better but there is actually not any evidence for that. And a whole lot of evidence for the contrary position. This does not mean that it was the wrong decision to put him in the OF (though clearly signing a Lorenzo Cain in hindsight would have been better than Santana). But an informed discussion about whether that was a good move really has to start with the fact that Hoskins is not a good outfielder. Anything else is #fakenews.

[David_Criss]

This team is filled with out of position players. Herrera was a 2B in AA and has learned CF at the major league level. Hoiskins is a firstbaseman. They waited too long to have him work in the outfield and thought it would be better to add Santana instead of an outfielder and mover Hoskins to LF. Kingery is a 2Bbeing thrust into a utility role at the major league level. This is asking a lot of youngsters, especially on a now first place playoff talking team.

[zambonir]

Signing Cain likely would not have been better in the long-term though.

It is probably not realistic to think Hoskins would get quantifiably or recognizably better in just 100 games. Same with Kingery at SS. There may be progress and comfort and they are not embarassing themselves, and if they both stay at those positions, multiple seasons and spring trainings will help. Just like many (if not most) rookies take two or three years to truly settle in (on both sides of the ball).

[LegoDoom]

Well, he's stolen 25 bases in a season before and last year his sprint speed was 27.5 (and the year before it was 27,4). I think there is some reason that people think he has above average speed (although not great, as you say). I would agree that his instincts seem to be the reason for his plus fielding. Although, his defense has been down a bit this year, which could be correlated to his slower spring speed. Or maybe because I'd be surprised if the Phillies practiced defense at all this year

[andyb]

League average is 27 though so even at his youngest peak Herrera was only a tick above average. He just has great instincts though that let him steal 25 bases at a decent percentage. He is 26 and perhaps has bulked up a bit to hit for more power. It is actually not uncommon for a guy to lose a bit of raw speed once he hits baseball middle age. Slowing down a bit may have taken his CF defense from above average to closer to average.

I do think the Phillies practice defense. They just seem to care about it less. They also may need their practice routines to catch up with where they are placing their fielders. If fielders are suddenly in new places on the field, the throws they make are from different angles and their instincts may serve them poorly if schooled under traditional positioning. Thus you get a bad result in shifts because the fielders are not prepared to do what the computer tells them to do. In a decade we'll have robots play all the defense anyway so why not just emphasize offense in our player acquisitions.

[zambonir]

If memory serves, few people thought Herrera would be playing CF for this long. Lots of pencilling in of Altherr and Quinn a couple of years ago. More recently, rumors of Yelich. You have to hand it to him even if he ultimately does move (most CFs do after all).

I'm sure adjusting to the new systems/shifts/data is part of the defensive struggles, who knew it would end up mattering in the standings so quickly? Back in mid-June they were -8 in shift runs saved, but I read that all of the negatives had been in March and April. I would assume even the overall DRS numbers started with a big hole and was not as terrible in July.