Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

[allentown]

Nola gives a lot of evidence of thriving on more rest.

[bkox]

For his career hes a run better with 5 or more days rest. On 5 days rest hes truly an ace pitcher. On 4 days hes a 3-4 SP

Nola career

But DEFINITELY want to keep Wheeler going every 5 days if possible

Wheeler career

[zambonir]

Such is the power of anecdote. What I remember is they made a big show of giving him an extra days rest late in what was already an individually disappointing 2019 season and he flopped even worse. Had a 2.52 ERA in both July and August that year, they started giving him extra rest on August 25 and he lost seven games in a row, with a 6.51 ERA in in September.

Regardless, we know what Wheeler likes (and I'm not even sure Nola likes extra rest even if the stats say he thrives). And clearly it's possible to get Nola five days rest without having six starters around half the time.

Plus like Andy said it all becomes moot in the playoffs. You can even make the case that the six-man rotation actually made the bottom three starters worse/rustier. They didn't do that because they believed it was a good idea, they did it because they screwed up both the guy they traded for and the plan to ease some of them into relief roles once they went back to five (and into the post-season).

As far as the original topic, obviously if you had Montgomery as your #3 Suarez becomes an incredible post-season weapon. But he would likely only pitch in relief until the NLCS. He'd just get to go more often than he did as a starter who was really just an opener this past time.

[julio]

Yes, but keeping in mind that Brett Schulze giving up runs means exactly nothing concerning the upcoming season.

Who?

The guy who surrendered three runs to the Twins this afternoon.
But I’m guessing you knew that!

[Callison]

Hall might really succeed with the Phils as a pinch hitter. Adds power to the AB. Might not be a great ML hitter, but can hit one out any AB. The guys the Phils have been using to pinch hit are not up to it.

Looks like Sosa hit .251 last season and plays solid D and better at several positions, so he's plenty valuable. But as a pinch hitter, not the kind of threat you want. Castro looks like a uniform without a body while he's been with the Phils. The Phils need some pinch hitters. Hall couldn't be a whole lot worse and could be a whole lot better.

[zambonir]

You just don't really need PHs in the regular season in the DH era. Sosa was 1 for 6 as a PH last year. Harrison (the primary PH until he got gassed) was 2 for 13. Cave was 1 for 8. Those are all sub-Mendoza line numbers but any of them could have lucked into one more hit. And agreed, Hall could luck into one HR (maybe even 2 given enough ABs). It's just still not worth his uselessness (sorry, that's mean, lack of utility) the other 95% of the season.

Post-season pinch-hitting isn't even really a skill, it's just that if you happen to be the guy who gets the right one at the right time, you remember it as one. Most manager and players will tell you the only way to have a great pinch-hitter is to also give him 2-3 starts a week to stay fresh. But that's also how you get disappointing players getting 2-3 starts a week.

Anyway, the Phillies have already solved this problem. He's not a slugger and he's not a LHB but Merrifield has replaced Harrison as the team's #1 bat off the bench and PH option. With the advantage of not having to replace him with a fielder after the AB, which is also true of Cave.

Generally speaking, who would you ever PH for on the Phillies in a June game against the Marlins or even the Braves? Marsh? Rojas? Bohm? Stott? None of those are wrong answers, but most nights they are just going to get the AB, even if the match-up isn't favorable, because all of the bench players, whether it's Hall or Cave or Sosa or Merrifield, are still downgrades I hope Merrifield plays well and earns his playing time but I don't want it to be because Marsh still can't hit lefties or Rojas can't hit anyone.

[Austinfan]

You can make a case that Suarez and Sanchez pitched as well as Nola last year, now they have to show they can start 30 games, but Sanchez pitched enough that it was unlikely a fluke, both have good velocity for LHPs with solid secondary pitches (LHPs tend to get away with 1-2 less MPH than RH pitchers). It was Falter and Lorenzen who faltered last season. Strahm was solid as the 6th starter/LR.

Montgomery would an upgrade, but not a large upgrade. It's not like his stuff is that much better than Ranger/Sanchez.
4 seamer 93, 2 seamer 93 but better results, curve, changeup.
Ranger has almost an identical repertoire of pitches, except he also has a cutter.
Sanchez is different, 2 seamer, slider and a plus plus changeup. Velocity was down to 92 on the 2-seamer (from 93+) as they had him tone it down to work on command, but the arm strength is there.

Montgomery's biggest edge is he's proven he can start 30+ games and go 170-180 inning deep.
With Ranger, the weird starts to his last couple seasons makes that uncertain, and Sanchez hasn't pitched that many innings - but Montgomery didn't until he was 27.

[zambonir]

The rumor from Bowden is Montgomery has one or two good offers on the table, not short/pillowy. He'd take the latter from Texas but no one else. Unlike Snell he has no reason to wait one more year to shed the QO restriction.

I think the jury's still out on Sanchez. Might not be a fluke, but not a surefire member of the rotation for years to come. But - assuming nothing goes wrong over the next month - rotation is in much better shape this year than it was last year, when Suarez was already hurt and Falter was a bigger question mark. To me Walker is the big x factor. If he exceeds expectations that is huge. If he is below them, that's the hole, with Sanchez still a perfectly serviceable #5.

[BostonRoss]

Generally speaking, who would you ever PH for on the Phillies in a June game against the Marlins or even the Braves? Marsh? Rojas? Bohm? Stott? None of those are wrong answers, but most nights they are just going to get the AB, even if the match-up isn't favorable, because all of the bench players, whether it's Hall or Cave or Sosa or Merrifield, are still downgrades I hope Merrifield plays well and earns his playing time but I don't want it to be because Marsh still can't hit lefties or Rojas can't hit anyone.

But we can't assume that Marsh will hit lefties or that Rojas can hit well enough to let him hit in a game where the Phillies are behind and have runners to drive in. I could definitely see Merrifield hitting for Rojas or Marsh in the right situation (if Merrifield has bounced back offensively). While I'd rather not see Cave hit at all for the Phillies, he could pinch hit for Rojas in the right situation. Even better, a Robbie Grossman could. And Bohm is still unproven against LHP; pinch-hitting Merrifield might be the right call on occasion.

I think the main reason the Phillies didn't pinch hit much was because the potential pinch-hitters weren't very good. Merrifield might be.

[zambonir]

We shall see.

Not sure why you rate Robbie Grossman. He was just average last year, bad in 2022 and not good defensively. Still gets on base but got outslugged by Sosa. And was no more effective as a PH (especially in the playoffs) as our guys were (which is less about him than how random and difficult that role is).

I mean sure I'd sign him to a minor league deal but he looks like another Josh Harrison even more than Merrifield (with whom my only issue is the guaranted money and the playing time that is probably accompanied by it long after he deserves it, if that's how it goes. If not, great).

I just don't think managers play this level of chess in a regular season game. Maybe in September if it's an active pennant race. But they're willing to lose games for long-term gain including challenging and developing their young players (and not insulting them).

Bohm is still unproven against RHP, you mean. Which is 75% of his ABs! There is no way he is ever going be PH hit for against an RHP. Andy argues Merrifield will never play 3B, even, because the Phillies have never sat Bohm for offensive reasons, just for Sosa/defense, and Merrifield wouldn't be better defensively.

Marsh, on the other hand, still lacks the Phillies' confidence or they wouldn't have signed Merrifield.

I still have a suspicion that Pache beats out Cave, in part because Merrifield is capable of hitting RHP if he's actually capable. That would also be a vote of less confidence in Rojas of course, a "just in case" should Rojas end up struggling and going back to AAA.

[BostonRoss]

Yes, sorry, I meant Bohm isn’t proven against RHP.

I’ll contend that Grossman is better against RHP than Rojas or Pache (and maybe Bohm). I’m not enamored of him, but I think he’s better than Cave. Anyway, I do think that Thomson would (and should) pinch-hit for someone in a situation when it significantly improves their chances of winning a regular season game.

A lot depends on whether Merrifield bounces back from his last couple months of 2023.

[zambonir]

Anyway, I do think that Thomson would (and should) pinch-hit for someone in a situation when it significantly improves their chances of winning a regular season game.

Well, that's a whole other analytical conversation isn't it? If it's 4-3 in the bottom of the 8th and your team is trailing with a man on second and one out, what is your overall win probability at that point? An RBI single would obviously change it greatly, but how much does sending out a .275 hitter instead of a .225 hitter, or a lefty instead of righty, actually improve it?

We've got our perceptions watching the game but the team is presumably using data at this point. Some of which Thomson probably rejects, whether he's thinking, "I like my chances with a PH here anyway" or "I don't care if the numbers say I should PH here, I'm sticking with my guy."

[andyb]

Pinch hitters are just not useful to us. There was some pinch hitting for Rojas but I assume if he is still the mostly full time CF by mid-season that is because he is hitting well enough that you don't want to pinch hit him much since you want his late inning defense too.

I think most of our pinch hitting was for a bench player (Stubbs, Pache, Cave, Harrison) getting an occasional start. That is really not enough to justify keeping Hall around though since he has an option it is not the worst thing to have him in AAA in case one of the big hitters (Harper, Schwarber, Castellanos) gets hurt. That would free up the DH slot though also put a bad defensive player (Schwarber) in the OF just so Hall could DH. Not sure we want to do that regularly.

[VoteForKalas]

I guess that is the question - what numbers does Rojas need to post & maintain to keep his CF job and not be PH for in late inning or critical situations?

[zambonir]

All depends how you define it, but it's just not that likely to happen very often. Like, maybe six times in four months? So maybe he gets PH for once or twice, but stays in the rest of the time.

Hall should definitely stay in Allentown rather than get traded or released (obviously he is not ready to leave the US). He would probably only replace Harper as 1B or Schwarber as DH, no positional roulette necessary. If Castellanos gets hurt you bring up Wilson and/or play Merrifield and Cave more rather than take away the DH spot from Schwarber.

[Jazzhead]

Hall might make sense as a part-time DH if Schwarber plays left field at least part of the time, thus allowing another big bat in the lineup. That could be Hall, or Harper at DH with Hall playing first. That's where Rojas can be helpful - his extreme range helps hide some of the outfield deficiencies of both Schwarber and Castellanos.

[zambonir]

But you wouldn't play Rojas if you played Hall. You'd have Marsh in CF and Schwarber in LF against a RHP because you would never sit either of them against one (you could sit Castellanos but that's pretty rare too).

Hall is not actually a big bat. He is Tommy Joseph or Darin Ruf, except LH. Not someone you need to move any parts around to make room for. Whether it's Hall, Cave, Clemens or Pache, the last bench guy isn't gonna play much, let alone reduce the number of ABs our best hitters get (and let's face it any talk of giving Harper or Schwarber rest is probably fantasy too).

That Hall might hit one or two out wouldn't actually compensate for his poor hitting the rest of the time. I think we're forgetting they did actually bring him back to the majors last season once he recovered from his injury and rehabbed in AAA. He was awful. If, in fact, there is an injury that brings him into action, his leash will be short. He's not a serious candidate for the current major league bench, nor someone with trade value.

[Austinfan]

Anything over .700 OPS from Rojas is more than sufficient for him to start for a decade. 2+ WAR.
His defense is THAT good, best in Philly since Garry Maddox. And he should improve with experience.
Last season OPS .772, whether that's sustainable remains to be seen.

[allentown]

Grossman was ok offensively last season, with a +0,8 oWAR, but a butcher in the field with a -1.5 dWAR -- difficult to achieve, especiallu in less than full-time play. He would be a PH only type of guy, and this will be his age 34 season. Overall, he was -0.1 bWAR kast season, so I don't understand why we should want him. With a 4-man bench and Castellanos and Schwarber on the team, is this a guy we can afford to carry?

[BostonRoss]

I agree that there is no place on the roster for Hall unless there’s an injury.

I do think there will likely be spots for pinch-hitters unless Rojas, Marsh, and Bohm all improve their offense. We can’t assume they all will.