Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

[allentown]

Yes, I think it would. Take a year. They'll want to do great and opt out. Deal with next year, next year. I think we need another plus SP. I'm not at all sorry we didn't get Bellinger. The Phillies comments on how much they were willing to pay for a Japanese star suggests a big one-year deal for Snell or Montgomery is a possibility.

[zambonir]

I don't really think there is anything Hall can do in ST that he hasn't already shown he can do in AAA. But I would also think the Phillies want him right where he is. He's still one Schwarber or Harper injury away from coming up. I personally don't know if he'd be good enough (at minimum they would need a platoon partner, which would be Merrifield or Wilson), but the injury denied him that one additional chance to find out last season.

Atown, you think the Phillies should pay the freight (QO compensation as well as the draft penalties for going over the last CBT threshold) for Snell, or you just think they would?

I don't know that these pitchers are going to take one-year deals either. They'll have opt-outs, which they'll take if they are good, but what if they aren't or get hurt?

[Austinfan]

The Japanese pitcher was a different matter, chance to add a cornerstone pitcher, not a one year patch.
Ideally Able after the Allstar break this year, Painter next summer.

[zambonir]

Ideally the Phillies somehow are able to run a healthy five-man rotation for the second year in a row and don't need Abel or a trade deadline upgrade. Last year Lorenzen was just for depth and not trusting Sanchez. The year before they needed Thor to help actually make the playoffs. Getting someone who would actually pitch in the playoffs would be a whole other order (and not one Abel is likely to fill either, unless they use him like they've used Suarez).

But yes, what they were willing to do for a young long-term FA with no QO attached should be very different than what they might do for Snell (which should be nothing). Montgomery would be a slightly different story. But if they are serious about re-signing Wheeler sooner than later that will also raise the CBT #.

If they don't re-sign Wheeler and/or Walker disappoints and/or Sanchez isn't for real it's not like they won't lack for options. Some guys who haven't gotten traded in the off-season (to this point) will also be around at the deadline in addition to next year's free agents. And if you don't get one of those deadline trades they will also be the FAs w/o QOs in November.

I reckon Snell is not and will never be their guy. They preferred Nola and they will also prefer Wheeler.

[Jazzhead]

The Japanese pitcher was a different matter, chance to add a cornerstone pitcher, not a one year patch.

True, but the Phils face a situation where a one-year patch may make sense. Sign Montgomery to a Bellinger-type deal with an opt out, and if he and Wheeler both pitch well we likely (i) win the division this year, and (ii) have a choice which pitcher to commit to long-term. The only real risk is if Montgomery pitches poorly or gets hurt - then we're stuck with a three-year deal. Year ago, of course, signing a star pitcher for three years was the conventional move; not the four to seven year deals that they seem to insist on nowadays, and which so many clubs have entered into to their regret.

[zambonir]

and if he and Wheeler both pitch well we likely (i) win the division this year, and (ii) have a choice which pitcher to commit to long-term

Just don't know that that is anywhere near the case. Replacing Sanchez or Walker with Montgomery is still likely only worth a couple of wins, three at most (Montgomery was worth 1.5 more than Walker last year, and 1.9 than Sanchez despite Sanchez only making a half-season worth of starts).

If the Phillies are already a 100-win caliber team (the argument they are making publicly if they can play a full season like they have since June the past two years) then sure, another ace puts them over the top, but they can also wait until the deadline. And if they're still only a 90-win team, they are still likely playing for the wild card unless the Braves aren't as good. If not a rotation upgrade still leaves them 5 games behind (and if the Braves aren't as good the Phillies should already be closer now).

I still think Wheeler is going to get re-signed. He doesn't need to hit the open market as much as Nola did (he's been there before, he's older/more of an injury risk).

[allentown]

If the Phillies are already a 100-win caliber team

That was certainly good for a belly laugh. The Phillies, as currently constituted, are not the equals of Braves or Dodgers and not remotely a 100 win team. Montgomery improves the team, especially in the playoffs.

[Austinfan]

If Sanchez can bump his velo by 1-2 MPH (they had him focus on command and tone down his delivery last season) with that changeup, he's as good as anyone they're gonna sign. And Ranger is finally in camp to start a season. Not sure you're going to upgrade over those two, and I'm not paying big money to upgrade my 5th starter. Sure, they're a risk, but so is Snell or Montgomery (especially Snell, beware of peak seasons, regression to the mean).

They can trade for a pitcher in July if needed, and will have a better idea how their prospects are progressing, whether Rojas is for real, and who might be expendable.

[Callison]

Jazzhead has the idea. Montgomery SEEMS more signable than Snell. Would love to see the Phils go that way, but DD seems ready to wait until midseason.

[zambonir]

That is the premise of Dombrowski's off-season though. They played at a 102-win pace from early June, having struggled in May while also missing Harper, Suarez, and getting nothing from Turner. At the deadline they rested on the laurels of Hoffman's emergence in the pen and Rojas's defense, knowing they couldn't catch Atlanta but also wouldn't miss the WC like almost happened in '22.

I don't necessarily agree with the premise either, but to me that is all the more reason to not sign a $30 million pitcher (and inch closer to dropping 10 places in the draft) who might take them from 90 wins to 93 wins. Because that still doesn't get you close to the Braves or Dodgers. Maybe if they'd signed Bellinger plus a pitcher (or a pitcher plus Chapman).

Sure, Montgomery would help in the World Series... just like he did last year when he was acquired by Texas at the deadline. Ditto Verlander and Tommy Pham and Paul Sewald, The Phillies have never acquired a top-line player at the deadline in the last two years (though Marsh was certainly as impactful as Pham). This could be the year to do that.

But, counter to AF's post, if they did get Monty, Suarez becomes your #4 starter and Walker/Sanchez fight it out. Montgomery's not your 5th or 4th.

The Phillies had - and still have - one of the best rotations in MLB (I believe it is ranked 4th this pre-season). Luck and health will always play a role in that of course.

[Callison]

Hall was listed in some sports scribe's rant about who should be traded now. He's a 1B/DH and those jobs are taken. But why not keep him on the bench??? The Phils did some fancy footwork to keep Castro. They love Sosa. But these guys hit like wimps. The Phils' bench needs improvement big time. Hall at least has some punch. On the team with Long, maybe he can improve too.

The Phils' talent scouts decide they like some players and then the Phils can hardly be discouraged,,, Castro and Sosa... Covey, Marte, Bellati, Ortiz...

[zambonir]

So I guess Hall runs and plays defense like a "wimp"?

You can't not have back-up middle infielders, both in MLB and in AAA. And if any of them could hit they wouldn't be back-ups. Sosa actually is good enough to get 4-500 ABs with most teams, and especially a lesser team, which is why I'd actually trade him in the right deal, because he'd still have value. Hall (and likely Pache and Cave) do not have anything more than token trade value (if any).

[allentown]

They played at a 102-win pace from early June, having struggled in May while also missing Harper, Suarez, and getting nothing from Turner.

Any team will look better if it is allowed to choose the 2-1/2 months it wants to exclude from the calculation. It's a long season. Every team has injuries, most teams at least one key injury.

"But, counter to AF's post, if they did get Monty, Suarez becomes your #4 starter and Walker/Sanchez fight it out. Montgomery's not your 5th or 4th."
Montgomery would be signed with the expectaion that he would be our 3rd. As you know, I advocate a 6-man rotation.

[andyb]

As you know, I advocate a 6-man rotation.

I am for starters pitching every 6th day, not an explicit 6-man rotation. There are more off days in the schedule these days so 10-12 spot starts or bullpen games is likely all that would be needed to keep the rotation pitching on 5 days rest. You also probably want the top of your rotation getting ready for the postseason where 5 days of rest is again likely too much for the logistics of how the postseason works these days (I might go for 80-90 pitch starts every 5 days knowing you have a relatively rested bullpen).

Paying for a 6-man rotation explicitly and having one less bullpen arms seems risky.

[allentown]

I don't think we'd miss the final relief slot and nothing goes through a bullpen like a bullpen game.

[zambonir]

Hard to have a six-man rotation or an every 6 days plan when your best pitcher (Wheeler) doesn't like it. I'm not even sure Nola thrives on more rest.... I seem to recall them doing this in 2019 and he fell apart in September harder than ever.

Anyway we know this team is not going to skimp on bullpen or let the back of the rotation pitch six and seven innings and every team needs a mop up guy. If the Phillies did make a big move for one of these starting pictures it would be accompanied by a trade or demotion or in the wake of a major injury. Not even sure we want to see Walker or Sanchez in the bullpen.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Looks like the Phillies blow another possible win in the 9th. Leading 3-0 with 3 outs to go they managed to give up 3 runs and settle for a sister kissing tie. It appears Schulze gave up all the runs....was he the same pitcher who gave up the walk off wild pitch yesterday?

[LoneStarPhan]

I can never be happy with blowing multiple run leads in the final inning or two even when the games are meaningless.

But spring training wins/loses really are meaningless. Still frustrating to blow leads.

[julio]

Yes, but keeping in mind that Brett Schulze giving up runs means exactly nothing concerning the upcoming season.

[zambonir]

Yes, but keeping in mind that Brett Schulze giving up runs means exactly nothing concerning the upcoming season.

Who?