Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

zambonir 2024-03-19 17:02:45 UTC #401

haha right.

I think .650 is the number but you gotta give him two months. He'll have stretches between .500 and .800 in small samples along the way. If he starts out poorly and is sitting below .600 after a while he needs to go down, albeit still more for his own good than because it hurt the team.

Of course you could ask this same question of Pache. He would also probably be a very good starting CF with a .650 OPS. You'd definitely play Marsh in CF against LHP (and Merrifeld in LF) but otherwise you still get better defense from Pache in CF and Marsh in LF than any other configuration, with no particularly inspiring other LF options.

https://www.mlb.com/news/johan-rojas-working-on-swing-changes-this-spring

Thomson makes it sound like it's not a done deal (and said it's about what's best for Rojas) but mostly it's the same talk that the numbers don't mean much, he's working on new things, having a good process, etc. etc.

Rojas is striking out at a lower rate this spring (19 percent) than last season (25.6 percent), keeping in mind it is a small sample size. He is chasing fewer pitches out of the zone (32.6 percent) than last season (40.4 percent), based on tracked pitches entering Monday. The Phillies have said repeatedly they are looking at Rojas’ adjustments, approach and quality of at-bats this spring, more than the numbers.

Remember, he will hit ninth for the Phillies. No. 9 hitters in MLB the past two years have hit a combined .228 with a .292 on-base percentage, a .357 slugging percentage and a .649 OPS, which is 71 points lower than the OPS of the average hitter. Before the National League adopted a full-time in DH in 2022, the No. 8 hitter was the last true hitter in an NL lineup. The Phillies’ No. 8 hitters in their 1980 and 2008 World Series championship seasons had a .687 OPS and .688 OPS, respectively.

phillychuck 2024-03-19 18:17:21 UTC #402

I'm sort of worried about the offense across the board. The Phils are 24th in MLB in OPS, 26th in SLG, and 27th in runs scored. And most of their better hitters in ST aren't making the team. I know veteran players are working on things trying to be ready when the season starts, but it always feels better when they actually are making solid contact against the AAA/AAAA pitchers they are facing most of the time (or against MLB pitchers working on a particular pitch).

Lucky_Beagle 2024-03-19 18:51:40 UTC #403

The Phillies optioned left-hander Kolby Allard, right-hander Max Castillo and infielders Rodolfo Castro and Darick Hall to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. They also reassigned right-handers Austin Brice and Ricardo Pinto and catcher Cody Roberts to Minor League camp.

donaldorc 2024-03-19 19:44:21 UTC #404

Couldn’t agree with you more!

zambonir 2024-03-19 20:23:46 UTC #405

Not at all worried about the spring training statistics or leaguewide rankings. In fact, maybe this is the year they are bad in spring training and good in April?

Austinfan 2024-03-19 20:43:11 UTC #406

Only thing I worry about in ST is pitcher velocity the last week or so, when they've had time to build up arm strength.
Hitters are variable in small samples, and ST is worse b/c many are working on things (see Rojas reduce Ks, swings outside the K-zone, but that may not be natural for him so he hesitates on pitches he'd swing at - takes time to get comfortable with changes).

phillychuck 2024-03-19 21:06:37 UTC #407

AF, what I worry about is veteran guys who are seeing AAA fastballs and starters throwing without their peak velocity who are not barreling the ball, like Schwarber, Stott, Bohm (lately), and Harper (some injury excuse, of course), injured guys who have yet to recover (Marsh), and young players who project to have adjustment problems (Rojas, Pasche) also not finding the barrel very much. I'm frankly tired of being 5 or more games behind the Braves at the end of April. We need to create a bit more urgency for some of these guys so they hit the ground running early in the year.

zambonir 2024-03-19 21:36:30 UTC #408

I just don't know that there is any correlation between spring training performance and April performance (also, last year, May is where they really faltered, albeit after a poor immediate start).

Schwarber, Bohm, Castellanos and JT all had perfectly normal spring trainings last year. Turner, Hoskins (sigh), Sosa, Hall, Cave and Clemens were all over 1,000 OPS. And then of course both Hoskins and Harper couldn't play, and the WBC seemed to break Schwarber (literally) and Turner (figuratively).

The coaching staff has sworn they are focused on getting a good start this year. That doesn't mean it would show up in the spring training results.

I've also seen several players say they wish spring training was over already, and that the last 10 days are the worst/a waste of time and energy. They'd rather play real games tomorrow.

zambonir 2024-03-20 00:48:25 UTC #409

Inquirer on the CF situation

Initially, Merrifield preferred to sign with a team that would use him at second base. With Merrifield at age 35, though, his value was in his versatility. He has experience at six positions, including all three outfield spots, which led the Phillies to offer him a one-year, $8 million contract last month.

And if they decide Rojas will benefit from going to triple A, they would slide Brandon Marsh back to center field and install Merrifield in left, where he made a career-high 66 starts last season for the Blue Jays.

“Not a problem,” Merrifield said, noting that he was an all-SEC center fielder as a sophomore at the University of South Carolina. “It’s like anything. The more you do it, the sharper you are. In the past, when I’ve had stretches where I’ve got to play one position for an extended period of time, I’ve always had extremely good defensive numbers.”

Last year, Pache and Marsh both +3 DRS in LF (Pache did that in 91 innings, Marsh 136).

Jake Cave: +1, 258 innings

Kyle Schwarber, -4, 872.1 innings (worst in MLB of 242 players)

Whit Merrifield, -2, 594 innings

At all positions Merrifield was -8.

andyb 2024-03-20 01:08:16 UTC #410

On the positive side, Ranger is having a legitimate great Spring. 0.00 ERA. I know he can toy with lesser hitters, but it is nice to see him healthy at an early date doing well. He might have one good 180 inning season in him for his career and maybe this is that season.

zambonir 2024-03-20 01:36:32 UTC #411

It's all about pitching really. Yeah the offense looks flat right now but we still get to pitch Wheeler, Nola and Suarez against Strider, Fried and Sale (or however they go), and have a solid bullpen.

Jazzhead 2024-03-20 15:17:16 UTC #412

IMO, Rojas should start the season in AAA and concentrate on improving his hitting skills. I'd keep Pache to platoon with Marsh in CF, and let Merrifield, Cave (and Marsh) get most of the starts in LF. But if someone like Tommy Pham can be had at this point for under $5 million, then I'd sign him and give him Cave's spot.

Callison 2024-03-20 15:26:14 UTC #413

ST getting more interesting as the pitching improves. Bellatti and Brogdon performing!

Rojas possibly just pressing after all the expectations? Needs the sports shrink? Hit your way onto the team, Johan.

But the alternative OF of Merrifield, Marsh and Castellanos looks a lot stronger in the order today. Merrifield not lacking confidence. Everybody is confident Marsh will be ready, I think.

Giants' deal with Snell is as desperate as the Cubs' deal with Bellinger. Boras wins again.

zambonir 2024-03-20 15:52:52 UTC #414

Pham is a RHB. Sounds like he's signing with the Padres too. The Phillies made their choice with Merrifield. Rosario is the LHB they let get away.

With Kerkering likely starting the season on the IL Brogdon is probably a lock for the moment (since he'd otherwise have to be DFA'ed).

zambonir 2024-03-20 22:02:01 UTC #415

Rojas, who has not performed well this spring in his quest to become the starting center fielder, is testing the limits of how meaningless Grapefruit League results are. Team officials and coaches harbored one fear — that Rojas’ confidence would be damaged by constant failure.

That is not the case. So far.

(snip)
The club, according to team sources, is still leaning in Rojas’ direction. There are arguments for keeping Rojas and for demoting him to Triple A, and all of those scenarios were discussed Tuesday morning. No decisions have been made.

Goes on to reiterate that everything the Phillies did - i.e. not signing an OF - was set up for Rojas, and that while they want Merrifield to play 2-3 times a week and are comfortable with him as an injury replacement, they do not want him getting regular ABs and wearing down.

And of course that Rojas was told from day 1 that the stats don't matter.

Philsmania 2024-03-21 14:12:07 UTC #416

Phillies plan to partner in Comcast Spectacor's effort to turn the Sports Complex into Philadelphia's version of The Battery.

Philsmania 2024-03-21 14:13:02 UTC #417

We probably need to accept that Rojas will never swing much of a bat.

Austinfan 2024-03-21 14:41:01 UTC #418

Way too early, Long has said they completely revamped his swing and approach, so that takes time to pay dividends.

However, what is worrisome is that they've had to do so, these are things that should have been done in the minors - but Rojas probably graduated before all the changes in the development system were implemented.

zambonir 2024-03-21 14:46:05 UTC #419

MLBTR seems to think Rosario might not make the Nats (and if he does Winker won't).

Other names on here: David Peralta, Mike Moustakas, various pitchers.

I'm a little surprised the Phillies didn't sign another relief arm or two but I guess they have plenty, they are just not brand names. Just as easy to get lucky with a AAAA guy as a closer who hasn't been good in years.

Callison 2024-03-21 15:15:04 UTC #420

I get the approach-avoidance decision with Rojas, but the Phils talk about what is best for Rojas, and if he's not hitting ST pitching, he's not gonna hit when the season starts. Let him go down to AAA and develop. Not gonna kill anybody. If he starts to hit, maybe he's turned the corner on the new approach, but if things continue as they are, the Phils will be forced to make the decision that way. Wouldn't be the worst thing.

The Phils realize Merrifield can't be an everyday player because he'll wear down at 35. Well, the Phils are committed to playing Schwarber in LF for 8 or so. Gotta keep Cave and Pache in the game, too, to keep the rust off. Wouldn't it be great if Cave and Pache realize some of the potential the super-keen-eyed Phils coaches see? Looks like the Phils will be betting this long shot again.