Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

[BostonRoss]

I agree that the team is better if Rojas is hitting enough to be in the majors, and I think the Phillies agree, too. The question is what if Rojas isn't hitting. Then someone has to play LF, and if not Merrifield then it's someone worse. But ideally, Merrifield is a bench player who might occasionally start when there's a good matchup. Otherwise he pinch hits, pinch runs, and comes in when someone else leaves the game.

We don't know whether any of the players who signed elsewhere for less, like Rosario, would have come here in a reserve role. They might have thought it advantageous to start on a bad team and likely be traded to a contender later, or establish their value for a bigger contract next year. If the Phillies had waited, they might be looking at Cave as the starting LF.

[allentown]

I want Rojas in AAA or playing regularly in MLB. P

So do I. He should be the Phillies' starting CF. He had a far better 2023 than Merrifield did.

[donaldorc]

Just my two cents worth. I really dislike the new liberty bell caps. Guess I'm a traditionalist!

[zambonir]

Then someone has to play LF, and if not Merrifield then it's someone worse

I'm not sure that's actually true. Pache and Marsh and Cave are all better defensively and if Merrifield is in fact a below-average hitter (as he's been for three years) Cave or any other LH bench bat might be better against RHP. In fact, Cave still has a career .729 OPS (110 OPS+) against RHP that is a tick better than Merrifield (.734, 96 OPS +). And while Cave was much worse than that last season Merrifield wasn't good either (with reverse splits, no less)/

So just the fact that people think Merrifield should be the starting LF if Rojas isn't in CF does prove the point that his name and contract might cause the Phillies to make him the starting LF. I'm hoping that's not the case, because Thomson hasn't really shown those tendencies.

But even without Rojas, every extra AB Merrifeld gets is one where you don't get to challenge Marsh, Pache or even Stott (though I hope not) to become more complete players. Maybe that's okay for one more year on this win-now team, but I don't think playing Marsh more against LHP or playing Pache more against RHP would really hurt the team either.

Obviously if Merrifield tears it up at the plate it's all moot. But you still don't really want him to be the starting LF. That's not his value.

[allentown]

I agree. I don't get BostonRoss's statement that it's Merrifield in CF or someone worse. As is the case with Rojas, but vastly more so with Marsh, those two are simply better players than Merrifield. To be specific: Marsh put up an rWAR of 3.4, almost 5 times the 0.7 rWAR achieved by Merrifield. Both Rojas and Marsh are young and have been on an upswing, while Merrifield will be 35 and is clearly fading. If Merrifield becomes one of our starting OFs, presumably because of injury, we will be a worse team than if our starting OF is Marsh-Rojas-Castellanos. Of the 3, the one closest to Merrifields level is Castellanos.

Merrifield is fine as a bench guy, but not at all good enough to be an OF starter, at any of the OF positions.

Btw, in very limited play, Pache put up the same WAR as Merrifield.

[zambonir]

In LF not CF. But yeah. He's not saying Merrifield is better than Marsh, only that if Rojas doesn't make the team and Marsh is in CF he's better than the rest of the OF bench.

Merrifield is an upgrade over Josh Harrison as an IF/OF bench guy. But that's all he's supposed to be. Even the best version of him doesn't really play as a LF bat. The other guys don't either, but that's where defense gives them the nod.

Which really just brings it back to where it started, and where it's also going to finish (at least on Opening Day) - that Rojas and Marsh are the two OFs who will best help the Phillies win even if Rojas doesn't hit. The Phillies have had Rojas set as the starting CF since the beginning of spring training despite lip service otherwise. Signing a utility guy whose best position is 2B instead of an OF only sealed the deal on that. Merrifield is not competing for the LF job. He's one of three guys who will play some LF if Marsh doesn't (and Marsh still should quite a bit, with Pache in CF, because he's a better CF than Marsh).

[andyb]

Luplow with his 4th HR of the Spring today. First 3 were with the Braves. He got released because they signed Duvall, not because he was playing poorly.

Not sure he fits on a roster even without Rojas though. With that lineup we have to keep Pache. And with Merrifield on the team they just don't have room for another RH OF.

[zambonir]

They really can't wait more than another day or two to make the decision, if there really is one. You'd actually want to send Rojas down (or at least play him less) because Marsh has barely played and you'd want the others to get more work too. Conversely, if Rojas is staying they need to start calling around about trading Pache or Cave soon, even if the final move doesn't have to be made until the first day of the season.

And maybe they're on the lookout for an upgrade on Cave or Dahl, but maybe not.

[julio]

Conversely, if Rojas is staying they need to start calling around about trading Pache or Cave soon, even if the final move doesn't have to be made until the first day of the season.

What makes you think they haven't? This front office does not leak.

[andyb]

Guessing there are about 100 players without options that might need to be sent down in the next week. It is not like Pache or Cave are obvious fits for anyone's major league roster, so this will be a waiting game and might depend on fit and injury need. Not sure we care if Cave gets claimed. And we really have gotten more out of Pache than expected so losing him would not be a disaster either.

[BostonRoss]

You misunderstood what I was trying to say. My statement that Merrifield might be the best LF option is conditioned on IF... the Phillies send Rojas down. To be clear, I don't want Rojas to go down, and I think that unless Rojas isn't hitting at all, the best outfield is Marsh-Rojas-Castellanos. And if Rojas isn't hitting, he and the Phils are better served by his getting straightened out in the minors, hopefully not for too long. I certainly didn't say Merrifield is better than Marsh--that would be crazy.

[BostonRoss]

Agreed, I don't want Merrifield to be the starting LF. But if I had to choose between him and Cave, I'd choose Merrifield. And not because of his reputation, veteran status, or salary. You had earlier mentioned Merrifield's last three years of OPS (94/90/93). Cave's are 69/82/50. Last year Cave's OPS against RHP was .663; Merrifield's was .702 despite the slump. Merrifield hasn't hit since July; Cave hasn't hit since 2019. Plus, Merrifield is a must faster runner and a high percentage base stealer. Maybe Cave is a little better defensively, but he's not a plus defender either. The Phillies would have plenty of reasons to start Merrifield over Cave in LF, well beyond his past reputation and salary.

Either way the decision could be reversed if whoever starts doesn't hit. (Sadly, that could also happen if Rojas sticks but doesn't hit.)

Pache would a more interesting starting OF option (in Rojas's absence) against LHP--even if he can't duplicate his success in last year's SSS--because he is way better than Merrifield or Cave defensively. But he should almost never start against a RHP. In his good year in 2023, his OPS against RHP was .449; for his career, it's .374. Since most pitchers are RH, he isn't a starting player.

[Austinfan]

Dahl, Kroon, Ludlow and maybe Cave will probably be the Lehigh OF, with Muzzioti and De La Cruz at 1B and OF. It's not like it's a long distance from Allentown to Philly, if someone gets hot and they need a jump start in the OF . . .

Stubbs, Sosa, Merrifield and Pache - but that means no LH PH, but who are you pinch hitting for other than maybe Rojas?

[julio]

Frankly, those OPS+ numbers for Jake Cave suggest that he shouldn't be on the roster at all. He's 31 years old, and he hasn't had an OPS+ above 100 since he was 26, in 2019. Note that a 100 OPS+ is, by definition, dead average. Cave isn't good defensively, and his last 681 plate appearances, over four seasons, suggest that he basically can't hit, either. He's not likely to improve; he is likely to get worse. I would much prefer a younger player with similar numbers, with at least the possibility of growth/improvement...and preferring a young player who is strong defensively, and who has a chance to produce a 100+ OPS+, is a no-brainer.

[zambonir]

What makes you think they haven't? This front office does not leak.

I'm sure they have, and also, those kind of moves are not especially leak-worthy. But it's still too early for every team to really know what they want to do, the Phillies included, or for market value to really be set. I mean, none of these guys really have much market value to begin with. If the Phillies decide to cut loose Pache and get more for him than they gave up, that won't be very much. Ditto Cave. The best case scenario would probably be if they can trade Pache for a LHB who's better than Cave (who they could then DFA).

As little as they leak, seems like a few pundits actually did know about their interest in Merrifield. Or they just got lucky.

[bkox]

As little as they leak, seems like a few pundits actually did know about their interest in Merrifield. Or they just got lucky.

Could be Harper that leaked... since he was campaigning for him

[zambonir]

All of these players need to have stories told about them, really.

The story of Merrifield is that he used to be a guy and can defy the age curve and recent history.

The story of Pache is that he used to be as good a prospect as anyone on the Phillies roster and may yet put it together. Even against RHP. But he can't go to AAA, so hard for a team with NL East aspirations to go with him.

The story of Cave is that COVID interruptions and his injuries (back, I think) are the reason he cratered, and that last year was the transitional year to regain full health and timing.

Much like with relievers, money for veterans is supposed to buy you certainty, but sometimes is just as waste of money. And fungible, cheap young players or AAAA player can still be useful, or occasionally surprise. Certainly nobody did last year, but all those starts by Cave, Sosa, Clemens and Harrison also didn't keep the team from succeeding.

[zambonir]

Well, that's one way to get Merrifield and Jake Cave playing time that's not LF

Phillies say they're not concerned, but Harper's bothersome back is worth...

[zambonir]

Bryce Harper said he is not concerned about the soreness in his lower back. He just wants to be careful with Opening Day 10 days away. Harper said he hopes to play by Friday, whether it's a Grapefruit League game or at the complex in Clearwater.

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) March 18, 2024

I'm sure it's something he would just play through in-season, but still something to worry about, whether it leads to missed time or diminished performance. As The Athletic article notes, he's slugging .273. In 2022 spring training he slugged 1.100.

[Austinfan]

One way to use money is to stockpile AAA+ guys in Lehigh, b/c they're more likely to raise their game in a "good" year than career minor league types. Dahl, Hall and Ludlow fit that bill, while De La Cruz, Kroon and Muzzioti fit the suspect prospect who might surprise. Cave is more of a known quantity as is Clemons.