Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

[zambonir]

Historically Snell has not been as durable. That's the big Q about him in general, is he a guy who is going to repeat his peak years going forward, or not? As far as his command I'd be more worried about those chickens eventually coming home to roost (in the form of runs), rather that it runs up his pitch count.

But, all of that is immaterial. I think we can stipulate that Snell is the greatest pitcher ever and still not want to face the penalties signing him would bring; conversely we could stipulate that he's simply a solid #2/maybe-ace and feel that such a pitcher actually would be worth the penalties.

But either way I don't think he is enough to get the Phillies (which PECOTA still has as an 84.8 win team to Braves 100.6) a divison title and just having a deeper rotation for the playoffs is not something you need all season, especially when the first two rounds are still going to be short. Though I guess you could argue that it would be better to give up $$$ and two-and-half draft picks than two-three prospects at the deadline. But they might not have to do that either, if things go right.

Conversely, if Walker ends up on the IL in spring training, well, maybe go get Montgomery (no QO). But I'd probably still just go with Turnbull or Allard there.

[BaseballCat]

For Yamamoto, I might consider going over the threshold, but not for Snell with his QO. It just torpedoes the future too much. I might change my mind at the trade deadline for something I felt better about than Snell.

[zambonir]

I dunno, I would argue committing $27M a year to a guy who's never thrown a major league pitch for years to come could potentially harm the future too, ever. Snell on a one-year deal is just a short-term hit. Don't get me wrong I'm glad they didn't forfeit the 2 and 5 again, as they have so many times already. But the threshold part isn't really that big a deal (nor is it permanent).

[BaseballCat]

Said might, but I would be more excited if they did get Yamamoto than Snell. Right now I would rather wait for something else. I will get behind whatever they do.

[fish]

It’s not only the capital cost, but it seems more likely than not that these guys that hold out start the season late, aren’t as effective (at least early on) and put themselves at injury risk trying to ramp up.

[zambonir]

Well, if you're able to get a premier pitcher at a lower price than expected - if, per DD's own verbiage, he falls into your lap - you probably don't care if he misses a couple of weeks or a month - and maybe even better to save those pitches for October. 80% o a 1-2 caliber pitcher is still better than 100% of a 4-5 (literally or figuratively). And in the meantime, the rotation isn't actually short.

Jake Arrieta signed on March 11 and I think missed maybe one start (his first was on April 8). He was also actually quite good (until he wasn't - first half ERA of 3.23, second half 5.04).

If they somehow fail to extend Wheeler, that's when you probably give up those draft picks for 2025 (though Snell won't have one and nor will any of the free agents traded at the deadline, just like Montgomery this year).

[zambonir]

Haha just breaking on Twitter, Wheeler extension done.

That also presumably eats up some more CBT space.

Zack Wheeler and the Phillies have agreed to a multi-year extension. Wheeler would have been the No. 1 pitcher free agent next fall, but instead, he stays in Philly. By season’s end, he will also accumulate 10-5 rights, and with that the power to veto any trade. Announcement…

— Buster Olney ( @Buster_ESPN ) March 4, 2024

[Austinfan]

The only good news is they're betting on two older pitchers they know, instead of two FAs they don't know as well.
Given that Walker cost $18M or so for #4/#5 production . . .

[zambonir]

I wouldn't say it's the only good news. I'd say it's entirely good news.

Zack Wheeler’s deal is three years, $126 million, source confirms reports. No options, etc.

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) March 4, 2024

If Sanchez continues to looks good and Abel is in the mix next year and Walker is still league average or better (last year he was better) they can trade him.

[zambonir]

Given that Walker cost $18M or so for #4/#5 production . . .

Walker was 34th in MLB in WAR last year with 2.5 (Fangraphs). I believe that makes him a bargain if you just go by WAR/$ (as you often do). He was also 7th in wins. We all know he had his limitations, but that's a #2 starter by WAR, a #3 starter on more than half the teams in the league probably, and fair value in any case.

[bkox]

we have any money left for the next few years?

[zambonir]

Odds are they will indeed be past the 3rd threshold next year. But they also don't really need to sign any high-dollar players over the next couple of years. They'll need a reliever or two, and to stick with Bohm, and Rojas also needs to work out. If they have to eat Walker's deal he'll be replaced by one of the youngsters.

And then after '25 JT and Schwarber come off the books - seems likely they will have to re-sign JT on a twilight-of-career/future back-up type deal or get a FA catcher of some kind. Hopefully by '26 they actually have a young player to step in for Nick if he's still here/not starter-quality.

This coming off-season Strahm, Merrifield and a possible Soto non-tender will still free up money though Suarez would also be due a big raise along with Bohm, and Hoffman will be a FA.

Related/not related: I still think the Phillies aren't going to let Pache go. He has too much cheap upside/youth.

[zambonir]

I'm sure this is probably true of most teams, successful or not, but it's funny how similar the Klentak/Dombrowski and Wade/Gillick eras have been in terms of some pretty important core talent acquisition, but then needing a change to truly make it all work. Of course Wade was more about Arbuckle's draft picks while Klentak was about spending Middleton's money (and arguably Dombrowski simply getting him to spend more where MacPhail and Klentak could not is also his biggest plus).

Of the current roster, front office and coaching staff, the following people were originally Klentak acquisitions/signings:

Bryce Harper (2019 FA)
Bryson Stott (drafted 2017)
Alec Bohm (drafted 2018)
JT Realmuto (2019 FA agent)
Johan Rojas (2018 intl)
Logan O'Hoppe (drafted 2018, traded for Marsh)
Zack Wheeler (2020 FA)
Cristopher Sanchez (infamous 2019 trade)
Brian Barber (hired prior to 2020 season)
Rob Thomson (hired prior to 2018)
Sam Fuld (hired 2017)

Obviously the shortcoming of the Klentak era is also highlighted by the fact that they still needed Schwarber, Turner and Castellanos to complete the starting nine and Walker in the rotation when that might have been Ortiz, Kingery, Haseley and (I dunno - Cole Irvin?).

Then you've got the Amaro guys: Nola, Suarez, Seranthony and the since-departed Hoskins. But I feel like ultimately Amaro is a bigger failure than he gets "credit" for. It was easy to caretake the Gillick team and just add great pitching, but his overall organizational era was a disaster, and his position player moves weren't that great either. He had his financial hands tied too of course.

[andyb]

The Amaro era had multiple lost draft picks (free agent compensation) but also coincided with the last few years of free spending in Latin America. We took a weird tactic of "replacing" lost draft picks with international bonuses that were close to the suggested draft slots of that era. What we should have been doing was spending like crazy when it was still legal. Back then it represented maybe another $10 million a year. $20 million max. And frankly Amaro could have been the closer with big signings with his background.

We knew our draft pipeline was going to be thin when we drafted late and gave up picks. We just gave up though and did not really try to compensate when we were making huge postseason money.

[zambonir]

And frankly Amaro could have been the closer with big signings with his background.

I'm not sure being the private school-educated Jewish-American son of a Mexican-born player would have meant that much in Central and South America. I don't even recall much ever being made of his Spanish-language proficiency, though I assume he has it.

What you are talking about was institutional, obviously - a longstanding lack of belief in development both domestic and internationally as well as being both spendthrift and overly compliant with MLB "unwritten rules." And then of course picking Amaro over Arbuckle hurt that side of things. Amaro's assistant GMs didn't seem very good either (I believe Chuck Lamar was Sal's boss, and Benny Looper was the main development AGM).

[VoteForKalas]

The big difference obviously is Middleton as the owner with full authority and motivation to prioritize winning over profit and PR.

Contrast that with the "general partner" in Monty who believed his role was to project the phony Phillies "Phamily" PR while keeping costs low to maximize profits for the owners, not invest in the team or prioritize winning baseball games.

I do agree, however, that Amaro was genuinely terrible as GM and Gillick got much of the credit from Wade's moves.

It comes down to timing, but also when a person decides to take a job. I remember reading an article comparing Larry Brown and Phil Jackson - Brown was a builder whereas Jackson timed his arrival when the team was ready to win and got them over the hump while avoiding the years of hard work.

Gillick and Dombrowski are not builder GMs, they are Phil Jackson types that take over teams ready to win and work to push them over the finish line. Gillick got it done in 2008, but then rode off into the sunset.

Dombrowski got them to the WS in 2022 and close in 2023, but I suspect the run may be headed downhill now unfortunately. It reminds me of 2009 and beyond. I hope I'm wrong.

[zambonir]

I dunno, I think this will be a good year. If anything the analog to the last era is that they could easily have better (regular season) teams and worse (post-season) results. But we're not into 2012 yet. And the current roster should have a few players improving at the same time a few players are declining, while by '26 they can buy a few more (and unfortunately, will probably have to - still no big corner OF/1B/DH bat types close).

It probably kills Middleton as much as us that they did that Lee trade and wouldn't go over the tax in 2012/2013 (when they dumped Pence and Vic and then went cheaper on free agents).

Then Middleton practically personally paid for AJ Burnett to help mitigate the pitching injuries but that wasn't enough, or the right guy. And they should have been rebuilding anyway.

[andyb]

I don't even recall much ever being made of his Spanish-language proficiency, though I assume he has it.

The implication is that he SHOULD have used his background. Instead he preferred to fit the mold of the Stanford/Ivy League GM but then acted like an anti-analytics neanderthal. Clearly he took pride in his relationships with old school scouts. That does not mean he should not have used analytics or his Latino background though.

[Austinfan]

I think Dombrowski has been willing to invest in scouts, coach and facilities for player development, it's not just Middleton's open wallet, but making it a priority now that they have sufficient resources. You can buy your way to 85 wins,but to get to 100 you have to produce 20+ homegrown WAR on a regular basis.

That's the difference between the organization now and a decade ago. Whether they can execute like the top teams remain to be seen, but at least they've embraced the challenge.

[allentown]

RAJ got cut off at the knees when ownership forced him to trade Lee on the QT. We had a big-3 which should have brought another WC. Lee aggressively marketed with teams bidding against each other should have brought in more young talent, if ownership was absolutely determined to hold to their budget. RAJ made some plus moves. He built our only 100+ win team in recent memory. The problem was myopic ownership.