Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

[zambonir]

And I'm not bothered when people get their wires totally crossed and refer to one player while meaning another (I'm 70; this stuff happens!).

It's okay if it's Luis Garcia.

Honestly I just thought it was funny AF somehow came up with Luplaw when I think it's been more common to call him "Ludlow." But I also realize most of these things are typos on phone keyboards or autocorrects.

(Also I wasn't just referring to you, as PC has been known to actually go into my posts and correct a typo. You only do it when I type "Rule V.")

[zambonir]

Cave and Clemens, IF GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY, are projected by ZIPS to be about 1-1.5 WAR players in about 200-300 ABs. Dahl projects to 0 WAR, and Luplow to about 0.5 WAR.

Cave does have an upside. His ZIPS projection of a 740 OPS would be just fine for a AAAA spare part. If he makes the team I hope he delivers that.

I think everyone would like both of those things just fine. But Cave had 203 PAs last year and put up a .620 OPS and -0.4 WAR. That was plenty of opportunity. Clemens had 148 PAs, .644 OPS and 0.0 WAR (I actually did think he deserved another look over Cave instead of having Cave play 1B for the first time ever).

BBRef (which uses Tom Tango's system of the past three years of data, no minor leagues, with more weight on most recent and more negative weight for age) projects Cave for .655 this year. Clemens, .674 (there's the age factor).

They're all perfectly fine tbh. People are applying the criteria of, "do I want to see this guy at the plate PHing in the NLCS" to, "can this guy not be an overall detriment to the team in a limited role during the first three months of the season?"

The David Peralta of 2022 and 2023 (to name one guy who might be gettable this week) isn't better either.

[andyb]

Frankly if the priority is outfield defense then they probably hang onto Pache anyway. Then the Cave/Clemens/Dahl spot is only available if Rojas is in AAA. Pache does have value. As Keith Law pointed out in his semi breakout piece, the power improvement is probably real even if he'll never have a high OBP. Maybe his future is a 290 OBP guy that plays good defense and could hit 20 HR in 400-500 AB.

[julio]

(Also I wasn't just referring to you, as PC has been known to actually go into my posts and correct a typo. You only do it when I type "Rule V.")

Yeah, well, I just can't really come to grips with the idea that you're a refugee from the Roman Empire! Well, that, and I have a binder next to my desk - 2019 version - that has sixty Major League Rules; and Roman numerals... well, there's a reason the Romans didn't develop higher math.

[andyb]

Misspellings happen, especially with newer players. Abbreviations are fine with me too as long as they are for a reason (long name or hard to spell hyphenated name).

What I dislike are intentional misspellings. Those should be disallowed if the intent is not positive (i.e. many are degrading). I also hate repeat misspellings on names that are easy to spell. It can happen every now and then (and autocorrect probably creates some unintentionally), but some are out there all the time and are annoying to me at least.

[julio]

What gets me is when a poster quotes something that spells a player's name correctly - often multiple times - and then the poster's reply to the quote misspells the name. This just cries out that the poster isn't looking at what he's writing.

[Austinfan]

But Phelps produced in his ML stints, the problem with Cave is he's failed to produce in four ML stints that were substantial - 123, 178, 177, 203 PA - at that point you start thinking his AAA performance is just fool's gold. And his very high ML K rates, 33.0%, 31.1%, 35.8%, 34.8%, 27.7%, 27.1% - if you're going to be a three outcome hitter, you need to walk a lot more than he does and hit more HRs!

Coste was a guy who hit at AAA and didn't get a shot for years, but when he got a chance, jumped all over it.

Merrifield is different, they're betting that his falloff last season was due to overuse at his age, in a part-time role that he'll sustain the .750 OPS he had for the first few months, and if so, is worth the money.

[Austinfan]

Managed some pretty impressive engineering feats without it!

[andyb]

Phelps never really got a chance till he was 29. Now he would not be discriminated against for the same reason he was then as the 3-outcome hitter is now much more accepted. The main point though is that AAA is just a level below the majors and stats there can be analyzed relative to age and park effects like any other set of statistics.

Cave is a very good AAA player and that translates to being a below average major leaguer. Given that Merrifield is older there is probably a stronger chance of regression too (stop with the wore out logic for a player mediocre for 3 years in a row). Cave also hits left-handed so he really is not competing with Merrifield who does have more speed and defensive versatility. Coste got buried too but for different reasons (Indy ball mainly and lack of belief in his defense). But Coste did not hit anywhere near as much as Cave.

Sounds like your arguments on Phelps and Coste really make the case to keep Cave for that last roster spot.

[BostonRoss]

Frank Costanza disagrees with Bill James.

[donaldorc]

After reading all the comments here on Marifield, I am amazed at how all the out of town announcers praise him up and down. Today it was the Yankee’s turn to do so.

[phillychuck]

Merrifield is a 35-year old three-time all-star. Of course the announcers praise him up and down. Plus he has an 1100 OPS in Spring Training. I don't think talking up aging former stars is restricted to Merrifield. Let's hope he has one more year of playing good ball in him.

Or let's hope some of those announcers are in charge of making trade offers for him...

[phillychuck]

z, why would one look to Tango's system to project players who have significant time in the minors over the last few years? He specifically excludes minor league data.

[phillychuck]

One more post.

If I were making the cuts I'd keep the obvious guys plus Stott, Merrifield, Sosa, Pasche, and probably Cave with Clemens on alert for a call-up if there are injuries or Cave struggles. Give Rojas daily work at AAA.

I have no idea where I am on pitching beyond the obvious guys. It's a different story if Walker is unable to start the season, too.

[julio]

"Tweeted" at 4:35 pm this afternoon:

Rob Thomson said RHP Orion Kerkering will open the season on the IL. He missed a few weeks because of an illness.

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) March 23, 2024

Also this, a few minutes earlier:

Taijuan Walker said his shoulder didn’t feel right this morning as he prepared to throw a bullpen. Got shut down for testing [MRI]. The Phillies will know more tomorrow, but Spencer Turnbull would take his spot in the rotation, if he is not ready to go.

Walker already behind schedule.

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) March 23, 2024

[phillychuck]

Walker was down 3-5 mph in his last start. This is why contending teams need 6 or 7 starters these days; so many major and minor injuries!

Turnbull looked decent today, but the ump had a pretty large K-zone, which helped.

[Lucky_Beagle]

The Phillies have acquired right-hander Zac Houston from the Rays in exchange for cash considerations, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (X link).

[Austinfan]

Merrifield really fell off in August and September, .580 and .472 OPS, some of that was BABIP, .264 and .220, but soft hit balls rose, 12.7%, 16.7%, 14.5%, 15.6%, to 19.4% and 25.6% the last two months, suggesting the decline in BABIP was due in part to a drop in exit velocity.

So the "wore down" story has some empirical evidence behind it.

[Austinfan]

Zac Houston

A live arm with a high K rate, high BB rate, RP who has struggled in AA and AAA the last few years.
A body for Lehigh, long relief until he shows otherwise.

[julio]

Turnbull looked decent today, but the ump had a pretty large K-zone, which helped.

Well, it didn't help certain other pitchers much!