Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

[Austinfan]

The pitching is much better the last two weeks of ST, so a strong finish would put some fans worries behind them.
I'd like to see him draw more walks, being more selective is a key for him and a few other Philly hitters - once pitchers know you'll chase (Castellanos and breaking balls low and away) they feed you a steady diet.

[phillychuck]

He had his first walk yesterday I believe.

[BostonRoss]

Merrifield has been bad for three years, not two months. OPS+ of 93, 82, and 94. Was good for about 1/3 of the 2022 and 50% of 2023, with the bad stretches resulting in the numbers above.

That's okay for a versatile, defensively plus bench player, but he's also been a minus player defensively for the last two seasons, and the Phillies don't seem equipped or interested in taking advantage of either his versatility or his best position.

If he does what he has allegedly been brought here to do (two starts a week) and does it decently he'll merely be a little overpaid. If he disproves the haters or is forced to play more due to injury, he'll be worth it. But there should not be any decisions being made based on the idea of him playing regularly in LF, nor should his salary or brand name dictate that.

Fortunately, I don't think there will be. If Rojas sticks (still likely) it's status quo and if he doesn't you still see Pache and LH OF more too.

I still think they might just keep Pache instead of Cave even with Rojas, at least for a while. There might be all of four times in three months where you need a LHB to hit for Rojas (they wouldn't hit for Bohm or Castellanos or JT) and that PH might get one hit. Rojas himself, or Sosa, or even Stubbs if they would use him, could do that too. And if Merrifield is actually good, he can hit RHP as well or better than Cave or Dahl (I don't know that he is, but that's the premise he was signed on).

Actually, he was at 90 POS+ in 2022, not 82. So three years at 90 to 95. I wouldn't call that bad for a backup. He's also 82 for 101 in stolen base attempts in those three years.

He wasn't brought here to be the starting LF. If he is starting there, it's because Rojas was sent down, and the alternatives (Cave, Pache, Dahl) are worse hitters. I still maintain he will not see much time in the infield unless there's an injury.

I really can't understand why people have a problem with Merrifield being on the team. Even with him here, there is a weaker spot on the bench. He's not blocking anybody important. He's old, but he's on a one year contract. I don't get why his salary matters; it isn't preventing the Phillies from improving the team further. If people really think that his brand name dictates he will play a lot more than he deserves, then they are just assuming the Phillies will mismanage the team, which is a different problem that isn't caused by Merrifield's presence.

[Aquapong]

I haven’t paid any attention to ST this year. Hopefully everyone gets warmed up, sees live pitching, and stays healthy.

Any big story lines? It seems with Wheeler re-signed, there’s no real spot for Abel or Painter without injuries or a trade. Hopefully we’re not looking at that scenario until next year.

[Callison]

Welcome back, Johan!

Another strong day for Merrifield. Could work to his benefit to rest often even if he wins the start in LF. Today he's the strongest hitter in the Phils' OF.

Never say the Phils won't give a player every chance. After a rough outing last time, Castillo turns in another.

Regarding Cave, there's lots of competition for his slot, so he knows he has to hit to make the team, and he is.

[allentown]

I really can't understand why people have a problem with Merrifield being on the team.

I don't object to him being on the team. I object to the talk here of him being our starting LF in April and Rojas going to AAA. I also don't like the size of his contract. And yes, the $ do matter -- every team including the Phillies does have a budget limit and we definitely don't want to send the budget over the tier that loses draft choices. Who knows how much we will need to spend later and whether or not this bad contract will bite at the trade deadline. As I said in above post, other teams have paid less for better.

[phillychuck]

Honestly, I want Rojas in AAA or playing regularly in MLB. Pinch-running and playing defense in Philly won't help him get better.

[zambonir]

I hope Merrifield is even 66% this good. What's funny is he's only played LF twice, 2B six times (I think he's in LF today).

The best team still has Rojas and Marsh starting and Merrifield on the bench.

And really, the $ still isn't a big deal. Merrifield only makes a million or two more than several of the bad relief pitchers the Phillies have been willing to cut. And now that they have signed Wheeler there is no way they'd take on a large pitching salary at the deadline. If they take a bigger on with a hitter, it won't be the Merrifield deal that tips the balance. If they had been able to sign a relief pitcher for $8-10 million they might not have signed him. Or they might have given that money to another OF and actually put some teeth into the idea that Rojas had to win the job. Either way, it was already budgeted. The (potentially) better cheaper players are either guys the Phillies didn't like (you can argue Duval and Grichuk are too similar to most of the other hitters) or guys who rejected the team's description of their role.

Plus, most big deadline deals with bigger contracts include money picked up by the seller unless it's someone controllable.

I'll be very surprised if the Phillies finish this season in the highest tier. And they should be able to avoid it next year too, unless they have to replace a current starter or Walker with a free agent.

[BostonRoss]

I agree that the team is better if Rojas is hitting enough to be in the majors, and I think the Phillies agree, too. The question is what if Rojas isn't hitting. Then someone has to play LF, and if not Merrifield then it's someone worse. But ideally, Merrifield is a bench player who might occasionally start when there's a good matchup. Otherwise he pinch hits, pinch runs, and comes in when someone else leaves the game.

We don't know whether any of the players who signed elsewhere for less, like Rosario, would have come here in a reserve role. They might have thought it advantageous to start on a bad team and likely be traded to a contender later, or establish their value for a bigger contract next year. If the Phillies had waited, they might be looking at Cave as the starting LF.

[allentown]

I want Rojas in AAA or playing regularly in MLB. P

So do I. He should be the Phillies' starting CF. He had a far better 2023 than Merrifield did.

[donaldorc]

Just my two cents worth. I really dislike the new liberty bell caps. Guess I'm a traditionalist!

[zambonir]

Then someone has to play LF, and if not Merrifield then it's someone worse

I'm not sure that's actually true. Pache and Marsh and Cave are all better defensively and if Merrifield is in fact a below-average hitter (as he's been for three years) Cave or any other LH bench bat might be better against RHP. In fact, Cave still has a career .729 OPS (110 OPS+) against RHP that is a tick better than Merrifield (.734, 96 OPS +). And while Cave was much worse than that last season Merrifield wasn't good either (with reverse splits, no less)/

So just the fact that people think Merrifield should be the starting LF if Rojas isn't in CF does prove the point that his name and contract might cause the Phillies to make him the starting LF. I'm hoping that's not the case, because Thomson hasn't really shown those tendencies.

But even without Rojas, every extra AB Merrifeld gets is one where you don't get to challenge Marsh, Pache or even Stott (though I hope not) to become more complete players. Maybe that's okay for one more year on this win-now team, but I don't think playing Marsh more against LHP or playing Pache more against RHP would really hurt the team either.

Obviously if Merrifield tears it up at the plate it's all moot. But you still don't really want him to be the starting LF. That's not his value.

[allentown]

I agree. I don't get BostonRoss's statement that it's Merrifield in CF or someone worse. As is the case with Rojas, but vastly more so with Marsh, those two are simply better players than Merrifield. To be specific: Marsh put up an rWAR of 3.4, almost 5 times the 0.7 rWAR achieved by Merrifield. Both Rojas and Marsh are young and have been on an upswing, while Merrifield will be 35 and is clearly fading. If Merrifield becomes one of our starting OFs, presumably because of injury, we will be a worse team than if our starting OF is Marsh-Rojas-Castellanos. Of the 3, the one closest to Merrifields level is Castellanos.

Merrifield is fine as a bench guy, but not at all good enough to be an OF starter, at any of the OF positions.

Btw, in very limited play, Pache put up the same WAR as Merrifield.

[zambonir]

In LF not CF. But yeah. He's not saying Merrifield is better than Marsh, only that if Rojas doesn't make the team and Marsh is in CF he's better than the rest of the OF bench.

Merrifield is an upgrade over Josh Harrison as an IF/OF bench guy. But that's all he's supposed to be. Even the best version of him doesn't really play as a LF bat. The other guys don't either, but that's where defense gives them the nod.

Which really just brings it back to where it started, and where it's also going to finish (at least on Opening Day) - that Rojas and Marsh are the two OFs who will best help the Phillies win even if Rojas doesn't hit. The Phillies have had Rojas set as the starting CF since the beginning of spring training despite lip service otherwise. Signing a utility guy whose best position is 2B instead of an OF only sealed the deal on that. Merrifield is not competing for the LF job. He's one of three guys who will play some LF if Marsh doesn't (and Marsh still should quite a bit, with Pache in CF, because he's a better CF than Marsh).

[andyb]

Luplow with his 4th HR of the Spring today. First 3 were with the Braves. He got released because they signed Duvall, not because he was playing poorly.

Not sure he fits on a roster even without Rojas though. With that lineup we have to keep Pache. And with Merrifield on the team they just don't have room for another RH OF.

[zambonir]

They really can't wait more than another day or two to make the decision, if there really is one. You'd actually want to send Rojas down (or at least play him less) because Marsh has barely played and you'd want the others to get more work too. Conversely, if Rojas is staying they need to start calling around about trading Pache or Cave soon, even if the final move doesn't have to be made until the first day of the season.

And maybe they're on the lookout for an upgrade on Cave or Dahl, but maybe not.

[julio]

Conversely, if Rojas is staying they need to start calling around about trading Pache or Cave soon, even if the final move doesn't have to be made until the first day of the season.

What makes you think they haven't? This front office does not leak.

[andyb]

Guessing there are about 100 players without options that might need to be sent down in the next week. It is not like Pache or Cave are obvious fits for anyone's major league roster, so this will be a waiting game and might depend on fit and injury need. Not sure we care if Cave gets claimed. And we really have gotten more out of Pache than expected so losing him would not be a disaster either.

[BostonRoss]

You misunderstood what I was trying to say. My statement that Merrifield might be the best LF option is conditioned on IF... the Phillies send Rojas down. To be clear, I don't want Rojas to go down, and I think that unless Rojas isn't hitting at all, the best outfield is Marsh-Rojas-Castellanos. And if Rojas isn't hitting, he and the Phils are better served by his getting straightened out in the minors, hopefully not for too long. I certainly didn't say Merrifield is better than Marsh--that would be crazy.

[BostonRoss]

Agreed, I don't want Merrifield to be the starting LF. But if I had to choose between him and Cave, I'd choose Merrifield. And not because of his reputation, veteran status, or salary. You had earlier mentioned Merrifield's last three years of OPS (94/90/93). Cave's are 69/82/50. Last year Cave's OPS against RHP was .663; Merrifield's was .702 despite the slump. Merrifield hasn't hit since July; Cave hasn't hit since 2019. Plus, Merrifield is a must faster runner and a high percentage base stealer. Maybe Cave is a little better defensively, but he's not a plus defender either. The Phillies would have plenty of reasons to start Merrifield over Cave in LF, well beyond his past reputation and salary.

Either way the decision could be reversed if whoever starts doesn't hit. (Sadly, that could also happen if Rojas sticks but doesn't hit.)

Pache would a more interesting starting OF option (in Rojas's absence) against LHP--even if he can't duplicate his success in last year's SSS--because he is way better than Merrifield or Cave defensively. But he should almost never start against a RHP. In his good year in 2023, his OPS against RHP was .449; for his career, it's .374. Since most pitchers are RH, he isn't a starting player.