Phillies Sign RHP Zack Wheeler

[zambonir]

The market is the market. We got the third or fourth best pitcher available. We have no other path to acquiring pitchers. We have no pitchers with high-end stuff, including our ace. And all of the other FAs besides Gerrit Cole are 1-2 years older.

From this....

Roundtable reaction: The Philadelphia Phillies agree to a...

Since the beginning of August in 2018, in fact, Wheeler has been one of the 15 best starters in baseball. He has figured out how to challenge hitters at the top of the strike zone. His average fastball velocity (96.7 mph) was the fourth-best in baseball, according to Sports Info Solutions (behind only Noah Syndergaard, Cole and Jacob deGrom). And he’ll be the hardest-throwing Phillies starter in the entire pitch-tracking era, according to Fangraphs. On the other hand …

This guy also has a health history that definitely scared off a few teams. And one exec I surveyed Wednesday described him this way: “He’s going to give you five or six really dynamic starts. He’s going to give you another 10 starts that nobody but an ace will give you. But he’s also going to give you another five or six you wish you hadn’t seen. And there will be another five or six that are probably going to be rehab starts.”

His health history is both the good and bad thing about him. You worry he will get injured. But his innings-pitched also make him functionally two years younger. If his base for the next three years is the two seasons he just had and there's also coaching/analytics upside, we got a Cy Young guy. If not, we got another Arrieta.

[schillingfan]

We got a pitcher, who will only be 30 next year. He may end up being hurt during one of his five years. More likely than not. He’s not at the end of his career IMO. Do statistics show the same decline after 28 for pitchers with good stuff? It seems like pitching is a lot mental, so declines may not be as dramatic as with hitters.

[Jazzhead]

I like the signing. The price is high, and so is the risk of injury, but that's what needs to be done when we can't develop our starters internally. Last year we thought we had at least three of 'em (Vinny Velo, Pivetta and the other Zach) but they didn't mostly progress. Wheeler's an acceptable alternative to Cole and Strasborg, although I'd like to see us make a play for Strasborg if only to weaken a division rival at the same time.

Even if we don't make another move, I think our rotation will be acceptable next year. Assuming Arrieta is healthy and motivated in his walk year, I like the front three. And we can back-fill the rest of the rotation with the younger guys who didn't progress as we had hoped last year. Maybe Spencer Howard will be able to step in by mid-year.

I'd take the rest of the remaining cap space and make a play for an offensive player or two. Ideally that would be Rendon, the best player available at our position of greatest need, Then I'd slot Kingery in at second full-time and see if Odubel can do the job in center.

[bkeich]

Even if we don't make another move, I think our rotation will be acceptable next year. Assuming Arrieta is healthy and motivated in his walk year, I like the front three. And we can back-fill the rest of the rotation with the younger guys who didn't progress as we had hoped last year. Maybe Spencer Howard will be able to step in by mid-year.

I honestly would like one more veteran. I just dont see the other guys making any progress. With 4 Veteran Starters you probably have 3 available for a good part of the year, with 3 you might just have 2 for most of the season. Especially guys like Arrieta and Wheeler, who are not exactly unfamilar withe the disabled list. Basically we have 1 very good starter and 2 league average guys and then some young guys. I accept that league average is probably what we can add, but I would want 1 more at the start of the year.

Howard next year is a bit of a stretch, but who knows. It does seem like once a pitcher masters Reading they have a bit of a jump on AAA in our organization just because Reading is such a hitters park. Not sure if that is exactly an advantage or not, but our pitchers certainly get a little taste of hitters having an advantage earlier than some other teams. Conversely our hitters look better than reality sometimes in AA.

[allentown]

That highlights a big problem with how to execute this off-season. We don't know how close Howard is. We don't know how much of the failure to thrive of VV/Pivetta and to a lesser extent Eflin was because of Young and the Phillies changing their approach to pitching and how much was these guys simply not being talented enough. It was reasonable to expect that these guys would improve last season, especially with the addition of a top defensive catcher. That they didn't causes me to point a finger at Young and also at the changed approach. As with the defensive problems of 2018, big changes don't necessarily work in a single season. Perhaps with a year of experience with the new system, with the Phillies organization accepting that 'the system' must be bent to the talents of the individual pitchers, a year of experience for Realmuto with these guys and the Phillies system, and a more people-oriented pitching coach, these three will show a performance upswing in 2020.

We don't have many $ left to spend if Middleton does stick to the cap. I'm fine with no expensive position players, but we do need to add one startier quality IF or OF and strengthen the bench. The pen needs attention. That doesn't leave many $ for a SP. It takes, IMHO, a lot of luck or more scouting ability than the team has to sign a SP who's enough of an upgrade over the 3 guys we have to make a difference. This assumes a healthy/productive Arrietta. If he isn't both, then we need to spend the remaining $ on a SP. Trouble is we are months away from the answer to that and the other questions. My personal conclusion is we must assume Arrietta will be a solid #3 starter for us because, if he isn't, there probably isn't any path for us to the post-season which doesn't include busting the cap, wthich the media now says Middleton won't do.

[Florida_Sunshine]

AT,

I would probably go more by what Middleton said recently about the cap than by what a reporter says. If you don't recall I believe he said you don't go over the cap to fight for the 2nd wildcard. You go over the cap when you have a legitimate shot at going deep in the playoffs. I think that is a fair and reasonable position for an owner to take.

[zambonir]

It is indeed reasonable to see if this team can make a run at the NL East before viewing it as World Series or bust. If Arrieta doesn't bounce back, if Cutch isn't what he was, if Hoskins doesn't return to form, they'd be in trouble regardless. But I think the market has taken them by surprise. Seems like a week ago they thought they might get Wheeler for $20 million and Gregorius or Moustakas for $14 million (or at least a shorter deal) and then maybe they'd have another $15 million for pitcher #2 (if not anything left for a reliever). Instead it appears they only have $8-10 million for a pitcher and nothing to spend on another bat (to patch/platoon at 3B or CF).

I was pretty certain Herrera wouldn't make it to Clearwater but if they are at the CBT threshold and can't move half his salary they may need to keep him after all, though he'd still have to make the team (unless they trade Bruce, whose salary hit is minimal).

[Jazzhead]

That highlights a big problem with how to execute this off-season. We don't know how close Howard is. We don't know how much of the failure to thrive of VV/Pivetta and to a lesser extent Eflin was because of Young and the Phillies changing their approach to pitching and how much was these guys simply not being talented enough. It was reasonable to expect that these guys would improve last season, especially with the addition of a top defensive catcher. That they didn't causes me to point a finger at Young and also at the changed approach.

This is a good insight. The guys we thought would progress have talent. That all three failed to do strikes me as suspicious, that the culprit may well have been the coaching. None suffered arm issues; they will go into 2020 healthy and, presumably, motivated. Perhaps one or more will end up as studs in the bullpen. But to me the addition of Wheeler takes the pressure off these guys and lets us spend our limited resources to upgrade the lineup and bullpen.

We shouldn't discount the value of acquiring a true defensive wizard for the infield - I'm thinking here of Yonder Sanchez, recently non-tendered by the White Sox. I saw his defensive highlight reel yesterday, and was impressed. Someone like him would help every member of the rotation achieve better results.

If Rendon isn't available or is deemed unaffordable, I wonder if we could pry Kyle Seager from the Mariners. He had a bounceback season last year, and is solid defensively with consistent pop. I doubt it would take that much in prospects to get him given his contract. Seager can also, in a pinch, play second.

[zambonir]

I think we're putting too much on the coaching. Young was still Kranitz's assistant in 2018. The analytics approach was and is going to be the same, just with changes to approach and implementation. Eflin, Pivetta and Velasquez were still wildly inconsistent that season, and cratered in August/September. Even if FIP loved them.

VV has basically been the same guy under four different pitching coaches (though in Houston and early in his Phillies career you could blame youth/injury). Maybe Pivetta can put it together. Eflin we know had an issue but it remains to be seen what his ceiling is (or if he'll hit the floor again).

The conventional wisdom this off-season was that even Eflin had to win his spot, in competition with Pivetta and VV, with one or both of the losers going to the bullpen (or AAA, or to another team). But that's only true if they sign another pitcher. And I'm sure they are going to, but now it's not clear whether it's going to be a guy who is automatically slotted in, or more of a flier/minor league deal type. Hamels, Pineda and Gibson all of the board. Ryu probably too costly. Keuchel probably seeking more years than Phillies want to give. If they can't get Wade Miley (who is lefty) you very quickly enter the realm of fungible vets, or of going back to Smyly. Just hard to know if not signing anyone better (including Hamels) is because of $ or if they're willing/confident to go with Pivetta/VV and Eflin again.

[Austinfan]

Eflin was fine last year, except for a one month meltdown which I think was the pitching coach overemphasizing throwing 4 seamers - after that month Eflin went back to emphasizing his 2 seamer and was fine the rest of the way.

Eflin
July 16.2 29 27 22 5 9 14 11.88 ERA
rest of Season: 146.2 143 61 53 23 39 115 3.25 ERA

He needs tweaks, especially developing his changeup and curve, which have flashed but not been consistent pitches for him. A pitching coach who can sharpen his changeup could take Eflin to the next level.

Velasquez is OK as a 5th starter, but I don't expect more from him.
He's got a plus 4 seamer, a minus curve and an erratic slider.
Which probably makes him more suitable for a bullpen role if the slider becomes more consistent and he junks the curve. The lack of a 2 seamer and changeup limits his potential as a starting pitcher.

Pivetta is sorta the negative image of Velasquez.
Despite its velocity his 4 seamer is a minus pitch (no movement and struggles to locate it)
He has a plus curve but no other decent pitches, hasn't really developed a slider.

Shows you that when looking at pitching prospects, don't put that much emphasis on velocity once a pitcher hits 92+ as an average, movement is more important (see Pivetta and his hittable 95 MPH). Do put emphasis on a young pitcher who is developing at least three credible pitches and has good command. I think if a young pitcher can master 3-4 pitches in the minors at a credible level, a ML pitching coach can refine them, but if he struggles to pick up different grips and maintain a consistent delivery, he may not be able to make that kind of big jump at the ML level.

Which is why Seabold is my dark horse candidate, he's gradually improved his velo to 91-95, has also improved his secondary offerings and has above average command. Was solid at Reading and in the AFL and should start the year in LHV with Howard. Not saying he'll be a top of the rotation guy, but could be a reliable innings eater at the back of the rotation - which is what this team needs in a #5.

[Philsmania]

This signing is officially official.

Phils make 5-year deal with Wheeler official

[julio]

Well, none of our trusty beat writers has bothered to sweat the details, but the AP has info:

https://sports.yahoo.com/zack-wheeler-phillies-finalize-118m-5-contract-171617090--mlb.html

Wheeler gets $21.5 million next year, $22.5 million in 2021, $26 million in 2022, $24.5 million in 2023 and $23.5 million in 2024.

Year	Salary
2020	21,500,000
2021	22,500,000
2022	26,000,000
2023	24,500,000
2024	23,500,000
Total	118,000,000

No indication at this point of any signing bonus, no-trade clauses, opt-outs, or options on the back end.

[el-pietro]

Assume there is a typo and we aren't paying him twice in 2024 and not at all in 2023?

[zambonir]

Safe to say. And probably not a coincidence that 2022 - the season most likely to be interrupted by a labor stoppage - is the most $.