Phillies Sign RHP Zack Wheeler

[Squire]

5 Years/ North of $100M

Jeff Passan on Twitter

Salisbury says its actually just under $120m. Pricey.

[Lawman]

I don't like it. Not one bit.

[Philsmania]

It is interesting how this year's free agent market is moving much faster than the last couple of years.

[nycphils]

Passing on Corbin for one extra year looks stranger now.

[Patchmk88]

Haven’t been more disappointed in a free agent signing in a long time. He’s a decent third starter but at a hefty price. How much more would we have had to spend to get one of the two aces. Also still pissed that Hamels went to the Braves.

[nycphils]

I don’t think it is a bad deal - Keuchel cost $13m last year for 2/3 of a season so the dollars are reasonable, I just think Corbin is the better pitcher and they passed on him to avoid one more year for the same money (Corbin was 6 yrs/$140M) - just a bit strange.

Devastated about Hamels - that’s a big payday. Worst part is Braves can hang a Q.O. On him next offseason so likely he is never coming back.

[Squire]

5 years/ $118 (23.6 AAV)

[bigegypt0417]

This move seems to make little sense unless you're going to go out and get another starter. This team was 2 or 3 starters short.

[el-pietro]

Are we underestimating Wheeler here? He might not be a lights out Ace, but it never seemed realstic that we'd be in the market for Gerrit Cole or Strasburg. If we weren't going to get one of them I'm much happier with Wheeler than the alternatives. I'm especially worried about Bumgarners Home/Road splits.

Wheeler put up 3.5 and 3.9 WAR the last two years according to Baseball Reference. Fangraphs credit him with 4.2/4.7 over those two years. Those numbers are comparable to Nola in 2019, though not his incredible 2018, and are higher than anything any other pitcher has done in red pinstripes over the last 20 months.

He also throws close to 100 MPH, so hopefully our new pitching coach can get the most out of him.

I do wonder why they didn't just pay Corbin last year, though maybe they have learned a lesson from that choice

Likely hes overpaid at some point in this contract but thats the cost of business when you can't develop talent through the farm. The Philadelphia Phillies just got better for 2020.

[Philsmania]

MLB Network talking heads like the signing.

[andyb]

I do wonder why they didn't just pay Corbin last year, though maybe they have learned a lesson from that choice

That seems to be a valid question. There is some rough equivalency in performance and Corbin is left-handed which the team really needs. Each lost a year plus to TJ surgery.

Wheeler does have better raw stuff though probably misses bats less well than Corbin. Hopefully the team can work with him on his offspeed stuff (and potentially 4-seam fastballs) to increase his K rate. One interesting thing is that his road splits are generally better than his home splits. The park in NY appears not to have helped him too much. He also keeps the ball in the park fairly well which is important these days.

Obviously at these dollars there is risk here. But it does give them a 2nd or 3rd starter type and depth that they did not have without giving up minor league talent other than the draft pick. And the international money may not mean too much this year unfortunately since there may not be great talent left to spend it on for better or worse.

[allentown]

We needed a pitcher and Wheeler has been a good one and isn't ancient. This leaves us what? About $20 mill to finish our FA signings, unless we go over the cap?

[andyb]

Apparently the White Sox were offering a little more than $120 million but Wheeler's wife is from NJ and that was a factor.

[BaseballCat]

I think it is a good signing. Yes I would love to have Cole or even Strasburg, but I don’t want the team to wait so long on the premium that a gettable free agent falls to another team. We played our east coast advantage, the others may want to go west. Why wait until February to miss out if that is their intention. Perhaps we learned from last year with Corbin or perhaps they were more comfortable with Wheeler at this price and years. We can now move ahead on other pieces instead of waiting too far into the offseason wondering about pitching.

[fish]

That feels like a mistake- but, woohoo! Zack Wheeler!
I think the barometer for the limits of a big contract, especially for pitchers, is to feel confident you are going to get more productive years than down years. For Corbin I could see getting 3 good years from him, so a 6 year deal would be a bust. For Wheeler, what does a contract succesful performance even look like? 3 years of 190 innings and 3.50 era? I guess there is a good probability of getting that from him.

[zambonir]

Yeah I like the signing. I thought it was always who we'd get really. He was the third-best pitcher on the market (given his age and lack of tread compared to MadBum) and will cost a lot less than Cole and probably Strasburg too (last I checked nobody really thought we were paying for Cole and Strasburg was either staying in DC or going West). A bit disappointing about Hamels but we're probably going to get someone better.

Funny to see the close-to-home thing help though not very meaningful if the Sox didn't go much higher.

Also this probably means the Braves aren't getting Bumgarner.

We already know not signing Corbin was a mistake. So does the front office. They weren't going to make it again.

[saycheese]

At this point when you can't develop starters, then you need to buy them. He is a solid number 2 starter. The main thing that bothered me was the fact that they had to give up a draft pick to get him. Just hate doing that.

[andyb]

A pretty positive take from the analytics guy at ESPN. Apparently his 4-seamer was much better than his 2-seamer in 2019 but the Mets actually decreased his share of 4-seamers.

Why Zack Wheeler could be the next Gerrit Cole

[zambonir]

yeah a big part of it is definitely the notion that he hasn't peaked yet. Astros wanted him too.

They were gonna have to give up the draft pick, first option without it was Ryu. I'm sure that is part of their interest in Gregorius too, he doesn't have one. So unless they go crazy for one of the 3B or find the $ for Cole or Strasburg it should be the only one they lose this year.

[VoteForKalas]

At this point when you can't develop starters, then you need to buy them.

That is the bottom line. The Phillies continue to fail to draft and develop talent effectively.

The Phillies spent more money on FA than any other team over the last two off-seasons and continued today.

They better win 90+ and make a playoff run or Middleton may be cleaning house next off-season