Phillies Sign RHP Zack Wheeler

Patchmk88 2019-12-04 21:44:27 UTC #21

Ok you all and reading these articles have talked me into Wheeler. I retract my last gut reaction post. I’m still upset that Hamels will be wearing a Braves uni. He and Wheeler would be the additions to the rotation that we needed. Hopefully we get a lefty similar to Hamels at a similar or lesser price.

Then the other big signing needs to be a infielder and I hope it’s someone better than Didi or a combination of cheaper players you can platoon.

VoteForKalas 2019-12-04 21:45:34 UTC #22

Good wrap-up article here

A little scary injury history - TJ surgery in 2015, missed 2016, limited to 17 starts in 2017 and struggled with shoulder issues last year...

zambonir 2019-12-04 22:08:45 UTC #23

Of course, TNSAAPP, which is why it's always volume, volume volume. But forget the draft, and whatever bad picks/bad luck/injuries have happened there. The scouting and development of our trade acquisitions since the rebuild started has proven to be a particular bust, up to and including Klentak's belief in our three arms this past season.

It's quite the list:

Ben Lively
Zach Eflin, Tom Windle
Nick Pivetta.
Alec Asher, Jered Eickhoff, Jake Thompson
Vince Velasquez, Marc Appel, Brett Oberholtzer, Tom Eshelman.

Austinfan 2019-12-04 22:09:17 UTC #24

The good news is he finished strong both seasons, which suggests that his arm is fine, if he had structural problems you'd expect a fast start then a fall off due to arm issues as wear and tear built up.

It's a gamble, but Wheeler has the pure stuff that suggests the upside is as big as the downside, and we're starting from a 3.5-4.0 WAR baseline at 29.

Philsmania 2019-12-04 22:13:31 UTC #25

In that case, Wheeler is probably better than whatever slop we would have taken with the pick we give to the Mets.

julio 2019-12-04 22:56:10 UTC #26

We don't actually give a pick to the Mets. We forfeit our 2nd round pick (which was #53 as of this morning); the Mets get a comp pick after the 2nd round is complete - currently #73.

Recent notable players drafted by the Phillies in the 2nd round (in the vicinity of the 53rd overall pick) include:

2017 Spencer Howard
2015 Scott Kingery
2013 Andrew Knapp
2011 Roman Quinn

Curiously, players chosen by the Phils in the 2nd round in even-numbered years have been less interesting:

2018 no pick
2016 Kevin Gowdy
2014 Matt Imhof
2012 Dylan Cozens
2010 Harold Martinez

Go figure.

We forfeited the 2nd round pick in 2019 - and given that 2020 is an even-numbered year, we (apparently) would have drafted a bust with that pick!

zambonir 2019-12-04 23:25:29 UTC #27

Second has been a good round for us (even including Gowdy). Three straight years without it is not great, but unavoidable.

VoteForKalas 2019-12-04 23:49:41 UTC #28

Very true although I think they are related issues - Phillies struggle to evaluate talent regardless of source

I've said it before, but if Middleton really wants to win, he should demand the very best in this area. It would save him a ton of money!!!

zambonir 2019-12-04 23:56:31 UTC #29

And to develop it regardless of source!

I think Middleton has pushed for it, even more than MacPhaill to hear him tell it. Still think it's a very looooong process to completely change an institutional culture, and go from the days of no analytics and the sort of scouts who were Bill Conlin's drinking buddies (never mind what Conlin turned out to be) to a well-functioning system. But Klentak was certainly slow to change things at the top and so far you can't say he, MacPhail and Middleton have been able to do what Friedman, Theo and Luhnow did.

One assumes that if Klentak doesn't last the next GM hire will be similiar to the manager hire - open up the checkbook to poach a proven GM, rather than the hot assistant. (Of course Klentak wasn't even that hot.)

bkeich 2019-12-05 00:20:13 UTC #30

This is kinda ugly.

This is a guy with a career 100 ERA+. Basically, he is the definition of AVERAGE. 24M for 5 years of that seems like a ton, and then add in the fact that he is coming out of what should have been his prime and we get his age 30-34 seasons. Logically, we could expect BELOW AVERAGE performance, eventually leading to BAD.

This was alot of money for a guy that is probably our #3 starter now (which is pretty horrible since we now have exactly 3) and will probably drop over the years.

Only saving grace is that 2 years ago he was better than average, last year he was a tad better.

We paid for about 20-25 WAR for a guy who in 5 seasons has put up 10 WAR. Now in 5 seasons we are hoping he is 100-150% better as he ages.

Something tells me Mets fans are laughing their ... off tonight.

zambonir 2019-12-05 00:31:22 UTC #31

How is he not our #2 starter, by a lot?

Austinfan 2019-12-05 00:39:01 UTC #32

Wheeler is no different than Corbin, a couple years removed from major surgery.

He's got upside left, the kind of velocity that can let him pitch well into his 30s at a high level if he refines his other pitches.
It won't hurt him to have one of the best catchers in baseball.

jimbomill 2019-12-05 00:50:20 UTC #33

I like the signing, even if it is a bit of an overpay. I thought G. Cole and S. Strasburg were unlikely. I believe we got the 3rd best SP and the only one of the top 3 we had a real shot at.
It would have been great to have gotten Hamels, too.

allentown 2019-12-05 01:35:37 UTC #34

Not a bargain, but this signing should make the Phillies a better team. Btw, while it may be a correct complaint that he has only put up 10 WAR in five seasons, I think a fairer measure is that he has averaged 3.7 WAR and pitched about 190 IP in each of the last 2 seasons. His HRs spiked last season, but both BB/9 and K/9 improved. He is not at all the mediocre pitcher breich describes. I don't know how many of our contract years he can perform at this level, but if we can get 3 years of average 3 WAR that's worth $81 million, then we see what happens the final two years.

I guess Klentak knew he had no chance at the 2 top SP.

zambonir 2019-12-05 01:41:45 UTC #35

Well, here's your pessimism. (In a nutshell, since the farm is still thin and they're likely to not exceed the tax, they're already in trouble.)

There are two scenarios in which this deal ends up as a win for the Phillies. The first is if Middleton and his partners empower Klentak to blow past the competitive balance tax threshold and pay the tax that comes with it. This would allow the Phillies to pursue other top-end free agents like Ryu, Anthony Rendon, and Josh Donaldson. It would also put the Phillies at odds with the 29 other teams—including the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees—that have decided to treat the CBT as a hard salary cap.

The second is if Wheeler actually does turn into an ace....But the Phillies have provided zero evidence that they’re uniquely capable of either identifying or developing big league talent.

allentown 2019-12-05 01:51:36 UTC #36

We're definitely signing more pitching. I'd say definitely not signing Rendon and almost certainly not signing Donaldson. It seems Middleton is determined enough to go $10-20 mill over the cap. He is in a year where the team needs to make a statement and that fits his personality. I'd be surprised if we added much lineup help. Given Girardi's lobbying, I suspect we pay too much for Gregorius, but that's it.

zambonir 2019-12-05 02:14:59 UTC #37

I still think maybe a trade for more pitching, or perhaps a position player, but we'll see.

Gregorius instead of Segura is okay by me but I'd just as soon have had Moustakas and Segura or Moustakas and Gregorius. Obviously, as you note, the manager is likely driving the interest there. I wonder if we'll really get Betances too (Romine still seems a stretch).

I was also more interested in Gregorius as a one-year guy, see how he does, see if Segura bounces back, see if Bohm is ready, Kingery still there to fill the hole next year. But if he wants a multi-year deal he's gonna get it.

Austinfan 2019-12-05 03:12:49 UTC #38

Last three years, Moustakas 2.0, 2.4, 2.8 WAR, 113, 105, 113 RC+
At 31, he's unlikely to improve on that, and might decline the last couple years of his new contract.
Last three years, Segura, 2.9, 3.7, 2.3 WAR, 111, 110, 92 RC+
At 30, he has 3 years at $14M, not 4 at $16M
Last three years, Gregorius, 4.1, 4.7, 0.9 WAR, 109, 122, 84 RC+
At 30, ??? on new contract

Don't think Phillies have missed out by not signing Moustakas.

allentown 2019-12-05 03:25:52 UTC #39

Gregarius and Segura each had a bad 2019, but Segura averaged 3.8 r-WAR in 2017/18. Of the two, in their age 30 season, I'd rather bet on Segura. Both are slightly positive WAR defensively at SS. If Klentak goes Gregorius it is a measure of the clout of our new manager.

bkeich 2019-12-05 03:42:15 UTC #40

That would also be a bit of cherry picking of stats. But lets say that we start from what he has done recently, he will be 30 next year so it is not reasonable to expect improvement.

Next 5 seasons, lets say 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, 1.5 WAR in each year. That is 12.5 WAR. Is that worth $120M? Keep in mind that assumes no injured . lost seasons. and I think it is a reasonable rate of decrease. Obviously every year has a variance, but that is what I think could be expected.

Wheeler at 5/75 I would be happy about. Wheeler at 5/120 is such an extreme overpay that we will be hamstrung in getting the other (massive number) of players we need. Basically, we have paid for a top 15 pitcher and have gotten the 70th best in the league.