Phillies Sign OF Kyle Schwarber, 4 Yrs, $79 Million

zambonir 2022-03-17 02:37:31 UTC #41

Well, let's give Didi a chance to actually be worse than Bohm at 3B before we assume that. Maybe Bohm could also be worse at 1B.

It's all up to the three true outcome relief pitchers, isn't it?

BostonRoss 2022-03-17 03:36:51 UTC #42

You may be right about Did at 3B. But he was the worst defensive SS in the league; so we'll have to improve there by moving him!

Austinfan 2022-03-17 04:05:16 UTC #43

And if you pay that average, unless you have a great farm system, you'll be an average or below average team.

The whole point of hiring a smart GM is to build an above average team, which requires an above average farm system and/or above average value in free agency.

Since we have had below average farm system for almost two decades the ONLY way the Phillies can be competitive is by obtaining well above average value in free agency. Only those teams with great farm systems can afford to pay market or above prices in FA and be winning teams.

Now what's interesting has been the collapse in FA prices the past two years, this may reflect COVID economics, but it may also reflect smarter GMs, leaving only a few fools to garner a "winner's curse."

schillingfan 2022-03-17 17:52:57 UTC #44

AF Everyone agrees you need an above average farm system to be a winning team. But it’s not an either or between building a good farm system and buying expensive free agents. If you have a bad farm system and don’t buy expensive free agents you are a .700 team. If you have a bad farm system and buy expensive free agents, you might slip into the playoffs or at least make September games exciting to watch for the fans.

If the owners have the money, they have an obligation to the fans to spend it rather than put the money in their pockets. I really don’t understand why you keep arguing that the owners should pocket the money.

allentown 2022-03-17 18:58:16 UTC #45

It is likely more dumb luck than talent for a GM to acquire significant WAR from a group of bargain FAs.

I believe these two things to be 95% truths:
-- the Phillies are not ever going to be serious WS contenders until they fix their extremely serious deficiency in identifying/signing/developing young talent
-- the Phillies must continue to pay the going rate for a handful of good FA in order to remain palatable. It might not even get you to a wildcard but 87 wins is far more palatable than 80 wins. It keeps you in contention until the end

When I say identify/sign/develop young talent I am, of course, talking about the jobs of virtually every baseball-side employee in the system. That we have been so awful at this means we have employed a lot of subpar baseball people and forced them to work in a system of conflicting and changing philosophy and priorities.

Sabin 2022-03-21 04:39:57 UTC #46

I see someone's already in midseason form

Philsmania 2022-03-21 17:20:49 UTC #47

Schwarber will wear #12. Fitting because he reminds me a bit of Matt Stairs.

Austinfan 2022-03-22 05:13:58 UTC #48

I'm not saying don't spend, I'm saying be smart about it, make sure you're getting value.

Small market teams have to do this, but even going over the Cap, Phillies aren't going to be competitive spending money like drunken sailors. They just can't spend enough to make a difference if they're paying $9M a WAR, 20 WAR costs you $180M, leaving you $50-60M for the rest of your roster, and without cheap young players, that money will soon be gone.

The only teams that can afford to strategically overpay are those with great farm systems that are using money to fill short-term holes - and they can then eat some money when prospects are ready to replace the mercenaries.

Patchmk88 2022-03-22 12:05:09 UTC #49

Out of curiosity Austin - If you were the GM what would you have done this offseason? Sounds like you would either rebuild and trade our tradable assets or be satisfied with what we had which was probably less than a .500 team.

allentown 2022-03-22 12:38:09 UTC #50

What you do not seem to understand is that even though the Phillies aren't good enough to go to the WS, they need to spend enough on FA to be competitive, respectable, and entertaining. They can well afford to spend what they are spending this year and it is a long-term business investment in keeping the fans relatively happy and their market intact. A lot of the baseball fan base is aging out. They have to keep fighting to remain relevant. Continuing to field the quality of team which they have since 2012 is a losing proposition with a time limit. Adding expensive FA is the least risky path at this point. Where else are they going to spend the money.

andyb 2022-03-22 12:52:51 UTC #51

Yup. The teams that can afford to strategically overpay are the teams that have money. Overpaying for free agents is not the best way to win as obviously developing prospects is preferable and less expensive. But when you don't have the prospects, you need to buy your way into respectability.

Baseball does have a loophole with young players not being paid enough. Small market teams have no choice to exploit that loophole. Big revenue teams should do that also, but they don't have to.

Austinfan 2022-03-23 14:12:58 UTC #52

I haven't looked at who was available, but they've paid a lot for two overlapping players - that is, LF/1B/DH on a team with Hoskins who's a below average 1B, JT who needs more rest at catcher, Harper who will start to need to take days off (DH).

They might get by with it this season if Bohm can handle 3B, but if he can't, they've wasted some money (i.e. gonna have to sit up a high priced player, reducing their value, unless Bohm can't hit).

Next year they have to move Hoskins b/c they need to make room at 1B and DH, they need to develop a young CF out of the system, have a better backup catcher to reduce JT's load. It can be done, but that's a lot of money to spend on two players who are ideally 1B/DH with a better defender in LF.

That's what I mean by value, at 1B/DH I'm not sure they'll generate enough WAR to justify the contracts.
But IF Hoskins rebounds, and can then be dealt for a sweet package, it might pay off.

julio 2022-03-23 14:24:31 UTC #53

Couple observations:

Hoskins will be a FA after 2023…probably gone.
We don’t know the details of the Castellanos contract yet. Opt-outs? We can’t assume that the “glut” of LF/1B/DH types will not resolve itself just yet.

andyb 2022-03-23 16:03:53 UTC #54

Bohm as a 1B or DH never was really a great plan as his offense is not ideal at 1B and there are better uses for a DH. So there is not really a logjam post-Hoskins because both Schwarber and Castellanos could be out of the outfield by then, largely holding down 1B and DH with an occasional OF appearance to let JT or Harper DH. I think Bryce will be fine in the outfield for another 4 years and we can see where he is at this time.

The Phillies clearly need to be developing better defensive position players, but they should have options on all of this in the next 2-4 years. If Bohm cannot play an acceptable 3B he is likely gone rather than moving down the defensive spectrum.

allentown 2022-03-23 16:31:59 UTC #55

I agree with AF that signing both Schwarber and Castellanos was a poor idea, which will bite in coming seasons and which also creates a rather skewed team this year. I would still have signed two big free agents, but just one of those two as they are both very positionally limited. As things played out, the move was to not sign either of them, but to pay for my favorite FA, Correa, who actually solves multiple problems.

Also to your couple observations: Hoskins being gone as a FA after 2023 would be incredibly dumb action for Phillies. They have to get value back in trade, either at this year's deadline or during the next off-season. I'm not at all sure that any opt-outs which may exist in either Schwarber or Castellanos contracts are going to bail us out of this problem. Unless they have great years this year and next, they likely will want to serve out their contracts. It seems neither got as many $ this off-season as they expected to. One might argue that the strike made this not an ideal year to try for a big multi-year deal. I'll argue the contrary position: the first year in which the whole National League needs to roster a credible DH (after many teams, especially the Phillies did not roster anyone who could remotely be considered a credible DH for the inter-league DH games).

Of course, the Phillies are one of the older teams. Some of these duplicative DH-type player problems may be resolved by injury, but that is a horrible resolution of a self-made problem.

The Phillies keep failing and writing off key draft picks and international signees. Some were just horrendous choices at the time, but do we really want to write off Bohm now, as andyb surprisingly seems to be suggesting.

zambonir 2022-03-23 16:35:16 UTC #56

Lockout

allentown 2022-03-23 16:35:59 UTC #57

Yeah, sorry. Obviously a lockout and totally on the owners and commish.

andyb 2022-03-23 16:41:12 UTC #58

I was not really suggesting that. I just want Bohm to play 3B and raise his defense while doing so to the acceptable level. If he can't play 3B though do we really think his offense is enough to push Castellanos or Schwarber off of 1B in 2 years? If that is our decision (Bohm can't play 3B but his offense is acceptable at 1B or DH), then we are better off trading Bohm to somebody that wants him at 3B or just needs his bat at 1B/DH.

Unfortunately a Bohm that cannot play 3B (but still has an 800-850 OPS) is not that valuable. We are seeing that with Hoskins. Good offensive player, but the total package just does not have much trade value. He is only valuable to the Phillies when his salary is acceptably low.

zambonir 2022-03-23 16:49:05 UTC #59

I agree with the general take on Bohm and it seems the Phillies do too (i.e. their interest in other 3B probably meant trading him, not changing his position). But if Hoskins is not really that valuable why did we just give so much money to two other players with similar limitations. Yeah, they are OFs, but only barely, and one of them is LH. But as Matt pointed out the other day the gulf is not that big.

It is weird to feel like Rhys Hoskins has been lost in the Schwarber/Castellanos signings, but he has been a better or equal hitter to them over his entire time in the majors (both had a better 2021, but Hoskins has been much more steady)
— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) March 22, 2022

Here are the numbers (wRC+)
2021: H- 127 / C - 140 / S - 145
20-21: H - 130 / C - 128 / S - 127
19-21: H - 121 / C - 125 / S - 123
18-21: H - 123 / C - 126 / S - 121
17-21: H - 126 / C - 123 / S - 117
Hoskins the youngest of the trio by 12 days, same draft class as Schwarber
— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) March 22, 2022

andyb 2022-03-23 16:58:46 UTC #60

The difference is that Hoskins' salary has been artificially limited by arbitration. So we pay him less than his free agent value.

And while Castellanos and Schwarber are poor outfielders, Hoskins is even worse in the OF as we saw. So their ability to be bad defensively in LF is more than Hoskins' defensive ability. Simply put, a 1B is supposed to hit more than a LF because the position is easier to play.

Will Hoskins get $20 million a year in 2 years for 4-5 seasons? Possibly, especially if he maintains his current good but not great offense. Hoskins for $7.6 miilion > Hoskins for $20 million. If Hoskins' offense regresses at all in the next 2 years he'll probably be more of a $10 per year free agent. Then we might even think of retaining him, though the logjam at DH will be worse in 2 years.

Hoskins is a good player, but his offense is not getting any better (see your chart of 126-123-121-130-127). Pretty darn consistent. If that offense slips to 110-115 since Hoskins is past his peak (he is already 29, not 27) then his value slips.