Phillies Sign OF Kyle Schwarber, 4 Yrs, $79 Million

Austinfan 2022-03-16 18:12:03 UTC #21

Most 5th SP types pretty much suck, if they can patch together a back of the rotation, if they make the playoffs they won't matter.
Might just need some AAA pitchers to step up and go with bullpen games on a regular basis.

julio 2022-03-16 18:16:51 UTC #22

Kind of like most back-of-the-rotation posters here, who pretty much suck at figuring out what thread is most appropriate for their comments?

zambonir 2022-03-16 18:47:36 UTC #23

I'll take the blame for that one (though saycheese and bkeich actually both first mentioned needing a pitcher). Even with the emoji that was pretty harsh on AF julio! It's pretty impossible to avoid subject creep when a hot stove topic turns into hard news, and then the reaction to that news naturally engenders further speculation.

julio 2022-03-16 18:48:55 UTC #24

Yeah, I know. But Austinfan threw up a softball... and softballs need to be hit, not taken.

VoteForKalas 2022-03-16 19:14:51 UTC #25

Good signing, living up in NH now I heard a lot of Red Sox coverage last season and the team & fans really liked Schwarber's presence and talent. We really do need Bohm to take a step forward.

The downside to this roster is how bad they are defensively. Outside of Realmuto, Harper and maybe Segura, it is pretty ugly.

The offense is going to have to put up huge numbers to compensate for the suspect pen and poor defense. The rotation has a chance to be pretty good, but Wheeler and Suarez need to get on the field soon.

bkeich 2022-03-16 19:34:31 UTC #26

I blame Zambonir also

andyb 2022-03-16 20:01:20 UTC #27

Zips forecast of 9.9 WAR for Schwarber over 4 years so about $8 million/WAR. Seems a fair price and even a bit of a discount assuming salaries rise by 10% or more in general over the next 4 years.

zambonir 2022-03-16 20:41:19 UTC #28

Gelb:

team officials believe adding Schwarber at this price will still allow them to add one or two more pieces to the edges of the roster.

Here’s the thing: Schwarber might not hit in the middle of the order. He found some success as a leadoff hitter with Washington last season, and his hitting coach there was Kevin Long. The Phillies hired Long in October and he advocated for Schwarber — both as a player and person. The Phillies had a .305 on-base percentage from their No. 1 and No. 2 hitters last season. That ranked 29th in the majors. It was the lowest for a Phillies team since 1972. Schwarber is known for his power stroke, but he brings a type of discipline that can play atop the lineup. He might bat leadoff for the Phillies. It would be unconventional, but the Phillies do not often do things the easy way.

Austinfan 2022-03-16 20:50:14 UTC #29

The way to end up a perpetual .500 team is to pay "market value" for FAs.
If you're paying $8-9M a WAR, you're gonna run out of money quickly unless you have an elite farm system.
Even at $230M that's only 25-29 WAR, you need 40+ to be a legitimate contender.
You can't make up the difference with low cost but barely above replacement players.

andyb 2022-03-16 20:55:24 UTC #30

I don't know why you keep making this silly argument that does math on a roster composed solely of free agents. Nobody tries that method. The value of WAR in this context is the value of FREE AGENT WAR. Players with team control have values that depend on arbitration and years of service but that does not apply to the free agent market. When one signs a free agent you evaluate the value based on that market.

Clearly analytics have changed the value of free agent WAR because it has been stuck at around $9 million for the last 5 years. Service time manipulation and better understanding of WAR have depressed the value. But that does not mean that it does not exist and is a real concept. Schwarber is fairly valued and even a bit of a discount by these standard metrics. That can coexist at the same time knowing the best way to build a team is to have a younger and less expensive core.

Austinfan 2022-03-16 21:52:21 UTC #31

That $9M is an arbitrary number, because some teams are stupid enough to pay that much explains why there are teams like the Phillies stuck at .500 despite spending up to the cap, year after year.

The two ways to build a winner in the FA era is cheap WAR from younger players, but those soon dissipate as players get money in arbitration and approach FA, and to buy WAR at a discount, whether FAs or extending your own players.

If you have a great farm system that consistently churns out cheap WAR, you can afford an overpay or two, but how many Phillies players have been cheap WAR? Nola, Eflin when healthy, Hoskins for a year, who else?

Which means the ONLY way the Phillies can compete is by purchasing WAR on the cheap.
If Schwarber is 4+ WAR, it's a great move, if he's 2 WAR it's more of the same.

andyb 2022-03-16 21:59:12 UTC #32

It is not an arbitrary number. It is calculated on the performance of free agents and compared to their cost. It is a calculation that includes low cost as well as high cost free agents. It is market based (even though analytics and usage patterns change that market yearly).

Nobody disputes that good teams need good farm systems. They can actual use prospects to acquire younger arbitration level players who are less expensive contract-wise but of course cost prospects to obtain.

I am not sure why you have this obsession about cost per WAR for free agents and every time you go straight to the fantasy that teams are only built with free agents (well maybe that applies to the Mets....).

The latest - clearly the pandemic caused a blip last year. But with the rise in the CBT we likely will be back at $9 million when this year is complete.

julio 2022-03-16 22:03:27 UTC #33

In other news, Kyle Schwarber has signed with the Phillies!

zambonir 2022-03-16 22:06:51 UTC #34

Even the Phillies don't think free agency is the best way to build a team, they just haven't been very good at the other ways (including tanking).

schillingfan 2022-03-16 23:47:27 UTC #35

That is exactly the point of course. Phillies are lucky they are a big market team that can afford to go up to the cap. Unfortunately because they aren’t the Tampa Bay Rays they aren’t good at developing good cheap talent. Therefore they have to spend up to the cap just for 82 wins.

allentown 2022-03-16 23:53:53 UTC #36

The Phillies certainly need to grow their own cheap WAR in order to be a top team, even if they can continue to spend up against the lux tax soft cap. That's why it was important that we not trade our top minor league talent for Chapman. But... the Phillies can afford at least 4 high-priced WAR players on the roster, as we have today. It's preferable to have our homegrown guys to fill in, but that doesn't alter the strategy, those homegrown significant WAR players simply lift the team's reasonable ceiling from making the playoffs to being a serious contender to go to WS. With Schwarber, we have a decent chance to sneak into the playoffs as the 2nd or 3rd wildcard. That's our ceiling. It's better than having a ceiling of .500. The Phillies have a duty to fans and to fan retention for the future health of the organization to spend as much as they are able to spend in order to have a watchable product and give the team a chance to reach playoffs.

We also have a bigger-stuff bullpen this year and it will be interesting to see what the coaches can make of it. Also interesting to see what the new hitting instructors can do with guys like Bohm, Kingery, Didi, and the minor leaguers who are close to Philly..

gmwannabe 2022-03-17 01:08:10 UTC #37

I like the signing, but please don't tell me he will be another Danny Tartabul. Flash in the pan for the Phils, without the flash.
gm

BostonRoss 2022-03-17 01:33:51 UTC #38

I don’t think they’ll be worse defensively than last year. McCutchen was pretty bad in LF, and they probably won’t have Didi full time at SS all season. Plus, one of last year’s bad defenders will be the DH each game.

julio 2022-03-17 01:44:01 UTC #39

This only helps if said bad defenders are replaced in the field by better defenders - and players who can contribute offensively as well.

BostonRoss 2022-03-17 02:23:46 UTC #40

Just checking quickly, Bohm had the worst dWAR of any 3B in the league, and Hoskins was worst at 1B. McCutchen and Harper were fourth and sixth worst among outfielders. It seems hard to imagine they can find even worse fielders to put at the corner positions.