Phillies Sign 1B Carlos Santana

[julio]

I am sure they do. It is unclear if the allocation amounts have a baseball inflation adjustment...

They do. For each signing period after 2017-18, the pools are increased based on the rate that total industry revenue grew in the most recently completed calendar year (CBA, Attachment 46). So expect some increase in 2018-19.

[andyb]

So expect some increase in 2018-19.

If the increase is 5% then the $4.75 million base goes to $4.98 million. So almost half of what we just lost!

[julio]

What has not been mentioned is that the Santana signing means that Tommy Joseph WILL NOT be on the Opening Day roster (well, unless Hoskins is traded). There's no room for a third first baseman. So Joseph is traded, optioned (which would be really unkind to his career), or outrighted/claimed/released.

[nycphils]

Really hope this doesn't mean the end of Hoskins. I'd play Hoskins in LF and see what I could get for Nick Williams. My gut tells me that the analytics guys don't trust Nick's 2017 season.

This is where I am - Hoskins was impressive in LF and he's the perfect guy for what the Ohils profess they want. My bet is Williams b/c of what you cite, though Altherr would make sense because he's older.

If I was a betting man I'd bet on Gerritt Cole for Williams and pitching prospects.

[zambonir]

I still don't know if Altherr is the corner OF of the future either but he has more value defensively/on the bench.

Optioning Tommy Joseph was certainly possible before, as insurance/depth, but yeah, now it seems unlikely as things currently stands. But he was probably getting traded (for nothing) or released anyway.

[bkeich]

Well, I wanted them to do something, but this is strange.

If Hoskins stays and plays left I am ok with it, but that means one of Williams, Herrera or Altherr must be traded. Very odd to basically force yourself into a must trade situation.

I guess ultra-technically it could be Hernandez that is traded and Herrera goes to 2nd, but that is a long shot

[tom81]

Santana also serves as your emergency catcher, which allows you to use your backup catcher as a pinch hitter. This could be important if they go with a four man bench.

[andyb]

Let's not go overboard saying Hoskins was impressive in LF. He was impressive at home plate. In the outfield he had below average range and a below average arm. He can probably fake it out there for a few years (like Greg Luzinski did), but he is never going to be good out there.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Concussions moved him to 1B.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

You could certainly send Williams back to AAA for seasoning.

[zambonir]

I'm not worried about Williams and Altherr getting enough ABs if Hoskins is the LF, there will be enough for everybody and it makes the team better while still giving them another year to decide the future of the OF going forward. I don't necessarily think this leads to a huge flurry of moves for this year. It improves the team for this year and future years, and is one less thing to have to do next year.

And I think Hoskins will still play 15-25 games at 1B. Santana will presumably DH a little, but could also turn up in the OF a half-dozen times. And if things stay the way they are and Hernandez isn't traded and Kingery doesn't blow down the door (to the point where they just trade Cesar) you'll see Hernandez and Crawford play multiple positions unless Franco has locked down 3B.

Or who knows, maybe they are signing Todd Frazier tomorrow

[schooldoc]

No time to read the entire thread at the moment....but my reaction is, a fascinating move. I do believe this is a precursor to another trade.

Completely uneducated guess as to most likely OF/1B to get moved, ranked from 1 (most likely) to 4 (least likely). My likelihood calculation is based on my opinion of trade value, and the way I think the Phils regard each guy.

1. Odubel Herrera--most trade value, and I'm not sure Phils are enamored with his personality.
2. Nick Williams--regression candidate and weakest defensive OF not named Rhys
3. Aaron Altherr--bit more track record than Williams, but not enough value to front a deal for a #2 starter. Also offers best defensive versatility--moves to CF if Odubel is dealt.
4. Rhys Hoskins--not going anywhere IMO

[harrisburghusker]

Not a fan of this signing. Santana is on the wrong side of 30, is pretty underwhelming for a guy hitting in a stacked lineup and it means you're going to play a subpar fielder in LF.

Seems like Klentak wanted to spend some $$ and has pulled the plug on Hoskins at 1B...

[andyb]

The pure ranking of remaining OF by OBP -

Hoskins 396
Altherr 340
Williams 338
Herrera 325

Just need someone to play 3B (Franco is 281)

[bkox]

I dont understand why we are excited about this move...

Santana turns 32 just after opening day so hes already in the normal downhill age curve... While he has great OBP, his defense is subpar, his HR numbers were down in the best year for HRs in MLB history. 818 OPS/112OPS+ plus is nothing special for a 1st baseman.

I was very happy going into the season with a Williams/Herrera/Altherr OF with Hoskins manning first.

What happened to trust the prospects? I think there is an easy 50-50 chance that which ever of those 4 are the odd man out, outperforms Santana this season.. and definitely over the 3/4 years. And for a lot less money

[Patchmk88]

He is a very good defensive 1B.

[bkox]

He is a very good defensive 1B.

Bbref and fangraphs both show negatives WAR/Ratings for defense

[zambonir]

We'll see if the front office's read on Santana, whether it's his production or his intangibles (yes, I do think the Klentak/Kapler braintrust cares about such things) is correct. But they obviously targed him and went out and got him so their scouting reports must take into account his age and normal regression curves. Moving to the NL might be a plus for him as well. And defense does go a long way, though I would think less so if you're not valuing it in LF at the same time.

I think the Phillies like Herrera just fine, nothing has changed since they gave him his contract and he ended up having a very good season (elite, defensively, too). But the contract also always makes him tradeable. If they went after Yelich, he might be gone (though the Marlins probably can't even take that contract). For a pitcher I doubt they would be ready to go with a Hoskins/Williams/Altherr OF. If Quinn somehow breaks his injury streak maybe things change in 2019.

And Hoskins could also be back at 1B by 2020 or 2021.

[allentown]

I have the same mixed feelings, largely because I didn't see 1B/LF as positions of need now or in 3 years. The plus is that it does add to the overall talent of the organization for mainly just $, although I hate to lose the high 2nd round pick. Since the lost international allocation wasn't spend last year and likely won't be this year either, I won't belabor that cost. We are paying for age 32-34 seasons, which isn't horrendous. I would have happily paid for age 31-34 seasons for a SP, which I see as a need or for a 3B. The upside is that we can easily split 4 positions among 5 players, giving each enough ABs, providing a ready injury replacement, and improving our L/R matchups in some games. Santana not a guy who was even on my ideal shopping list for the winter, but on the whole, I think a slight positive to have made this signing. Since we needed a 4th OF, there may not be another shoe to drop.

[Patchmk88]

Haven't looked at those but according o an article on ESPN by Schoenfield UZR had him at 4.8 runs saved in 2017 which was 3rd amongst all 1B.