Phillies Prospect Lists

[Philsmania]

I'd take a cheap 3rd/4th OF for 6 years as a positive Moniak result. I'm still hoping for more, but at 24 it's unlikely. Would have been nicer if he had hit in the majors in his sporadic at bats.

The bottom line is that you want to get a useful ML player out of a 1-1 to justify the selection. You don't need to get a superstar, though one would be nice. Ken Griffey, Jr. and Chipper Jones are the only 1-1's in Cooperstown.

[zambonir]

I remember when they drafted him the rosiest upside was Steve Finley and a lot of people didn't think that would be good enough. But that's actually a pretty high ceiling - less than a superstar, more than an everyday player. At the same time, a career .750 OPS guy in AA/AAA isn't likely to give you anymore than Trevor Jankowski. With the lost 2020 and only 341 AAA ABs I think he's back in Allentown next year until he or necessity forces it, a la Nick Williams in 2017.

[andyb]

Moniak was supposed to be a high floor guy because of a superior hit tool. That has really not come to pass as his hit tool seems average at best. Which means middling CF defense really requires a little more progress at the plate to achieve what used to be his floor. The Finley lack of ceiling comments were to downgrade expectations of getting somebody like Ken Griffey which used to be what people assumed from a 1-1 pick.

[bigegypt0417]

the way the Phillies handled Moniak this year has not done him any favors...he should have been an every day bat in AAA instead of getting called up so Girardi could refuse to play him.

[andyb]

The roster management by the Phillies was not wonderful. We kept extra pitchers on the 40-man roster to shuttle back and forth and that limited our position player options. It turned out that most of those pitchers would pass through waivers if they had to be removed from the 40 though. So when players like Haseley got hurt we got stuck with limited options. Moniak should have been given a few starts a week whenever he was called up. If they were not going to do that, they should have relied more on players like Jankowski and Bonifacio who have no development remaining and could sit on the bench more easily in the majors.

[Austinfan]

They've messed with him for years, what Moniak really needs is to go to Arizona, get some hands on coaching to regain his HS stroke, and let him get comfortable doing what made him a high draft pick in the first place. Then start next year in AAA and hit his way to the Show.

[andyb]

Do we really know they "messed" with Moniak for years? Seems they gave him consistent playing time and let him play through the ups and downs over the years. It is not the Phillies' development staff's fault that his hit tool was not as advertised. Until this year the Phillies handled Moniak pretty well. He did improve steadily as you yourself have noted often. He just was not as good as advertised. It is the rare HS stroke that actually works in the pros.

[julio]

They've messed with him for years, what Moniak really needs is to go to Arizona, get some hands on coaching to regain his HS stroke, and let him get comfortable doing what made him a high draft pick in the first place.

Interesting. What do you think the D-Backs would give us for him?

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[Yes, I know. Don't even...]

[zambonir]

Yeah, the 40-man was just very badly handled, with some bad luck along the way (injuries and COVID0. Credit to Torreyes and Galvis and Jankowski (if not Joyce) for contributing, but if Joe had been willing to ride out young player struggles who's to say Maton, Williams and Moniak couldn't have matched their "production."

Of course when spring training started they thought Kingery, Haseley and Quinn would all make the team, Herrera wouldn't sniff the 40, and Moniak would only get called up after a productive 3-4 months in AAA. As it is, they still wound up adding Jankowski, Williams and Vierling.

[andyb]

2021 prospect leaps. 1 per team. Bryson Stott for the Phillies though Rojas got a mention in the write-up also. Looks like Stott will earn his way into Kiley McDaniel's top 100 this offseason.

Prospects who have taken the biggest step forward in 2021 for all 30 MLB teams

[Philsmania]

I have a question regarding these minor league rankings. Do they generally focus on the AA and AAA level since that's where the prospects get separated from the suspects?

I remember for much of the second half of last decade, one common comment about the Phillies system was that it had quantity but not a lot quality and no real stars.

[fish]

I have a question regarding these minor league rankings. Do they generally focus on the AA and AAA level since that's where the prospects get separated from the suspects

Not really. The best prospects don't spend much time at those levels any more.

[andyb]

MLB organizational prospects of the year (not player of the year), Stott and Hernandez. That is probably who I would have chosen. Pitcher would have been Abel if he had a few more starts, but Hernandez pitched more and is probably the pitching prospect who made the most progress this year (and that is not saying much).

Prospects of the Year for every org.

[Austinfan]

I don't think this farm system is as devoid of talent as it looks, we may get a better sense next year if Manning can rationalize the organization. It almost seemed like there was no communication within the organization with coaches at each level doing their thing.

But they do have a lot of players at LHV who don't need to make a huge jump to contribute, just get the right coaching that doesn't set them back.

Lower down, they have a bunch of high upside players, Rojas, L Garcia, Torres, De La Cruz, Pipkin, McGarry, E Miller, Aparicio, Burke, Minyety, Baylor, Simmons, Y Garcia, Wilson, Lee Sang, Abel, Hernandez, Martinez, Castillo, Mayer, Cotton, Perez, Nava, Lee, Azuaje, Flores, Viars, Painter, Ortega.

Most will crash and burn, but we need a developmental coach group that can help a half dozen approach their upside.

[zambonir]

I don't think this farm system is as devoid of talent as it looks, we may get a better sense next year if Manning can rationalize the organization. It almost seemed like there was no communication within the organization with coaches at each level doing their thing.

But they do have a lot of players at LHV who don't need to make a huge jump to contribute, just get the right coaching that doesn't set them back.

I assume you mean Mattingly. I also think it's too late for the AAA players. They won't actually get that much attention there, and most of the best ones are already major leaguers - where they aren't getting especially good coaching, apparently, and that includes the guys who haven't gotten fired (some of whom have been here for four seasons).

If they clean developmental house we're basically looking at another lost year. Since they are keeping Cotham I would think they'll also keep the minor league pitching coordinator, who's still in his first season. Then you either hire the new major league hitting coach and Ochart's replacement in tandem, or hire major league people who can work with him. (I don't imagine Driveline has built its success on hitters who can't hit high fastballs, even if that's part of their pitching success.)

[andyb]

Lower down, they have a bunch of high upside players, Rojas, L Garcia, Torres, De La Cruz, Pipkin, McGarry, E Miller, Aparicio, Burke, Minyety, Baylor, Simmons, Y Garcia, Wilson, Lee Sang, Abel, Hernandez, Martinez, Castillo, Mayer, Cotton, Perez, Nava, Lee, Azuaje, Flores, Viars, Painter, Ortega.

It is hard to say whether the Phillies' low minors depth is above or below average though. Remember we have had smaller international pools than our competition the last few years and little track record of signing talent that is good for the relative price. In short, virtually every organization has 20-30 low minors high ceiling players and it is unlikely the Phillies rank above average if this were the standard.

And all those AAA prospects you like and say might contribute do not project to be average starters or better (I am putting Stott at AA for his purpose). We do have some lower cost pieces at AAA that can help, but if they are not that much above replacement level (and there is little evidence that guys like Vierling and Williams and Maton and Haseley and Moniak would be much above replacement level), then they don't help much because cheap free agents could replace them.

That is why stars (i.e. top 100 prospects) are so important. They provide real value at low cost that can't be replaced. That is our weakness.

[gmwannabe]

i didn't see Johan Rojas on the instructs list. did i miss something or was he injured?
gm

[andyb]

I would not make any of that. He seemed healthy (and playing really well at Jersey Shore) at the end. They might be giving him a little break in advance of winter ball somewhere. Or he is on the roster but PhuturePhillies just did not list him or see him the first week.

Edit - And he is listed here:

2021 Philadelphia Phillies Instructional League Roster

[andyb]

Does anyone have a BA subscription that could summarize the league lists? Looks like they started a little more than a week ago. They do note in the FCL header that Painter did not play enough to be eligible.

2021 Top MLB Prospects At Each Minor League Level

[allentown]

What I found was the top 10 for each league. Only Phillies guy is Abel at #4 in SE low-A league. That gives us 1 out of 130 listed prospects.