Phillies Prospect Lists

andyb 2021-10-07 17:45:00 UTC #1121

Minor league all star teams coming out too. Brian Marconi on the AA list. Jhailyn Ortiz and Blake Brown in High A. Low A and complex still to come:

kmc1019 2021-10-07 17:49:39 UTC #1122

I see the same as allentown, with one nuance: Though there are 13 leagues x Top 10 prospects each, there are many prospects (typically those heralded by Baseball America) who appear in multiple leagues, e.g. following promotion. So I guesstimate there are roughly 110-115 actual prospects identified here.

In the case of someone like Stott who sits near the back end of most Top 100 prospect lists lately, he likely is not listed here due to presence of many higher-profile prospects in the league in which Reading plays, including Adley Rutschman, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Grayson Rodriguez and Austin Martin. Unfortunately there is no listing or discussion of any "just missed the cut" types, so the list of 10 is truly 10 and no more.
I'll take heart in knowing the Phillies have Stott, Abel and Painter while lamenting - after 10 years in the wilderness - the absence of one or two considered an MLB Top 10 or Top 20 overall. A strong year and good health from Abel next year is probably the best chance the Phillies have for that.

andyb 2021-10-12 15:52:46 UTC #1123

Luis Garcia makes the BA list for 10 most improved prospects in full season ball.

andyb 2021-10-15 14:56:44 UTC #1124

The Good Phight on the state of the system:

Austinfan 2021-10-15 15:29:18 UTC #1125

Things are getting better, but it'll probably take 3-5 years to get them into the top ten.

One way to speed it up would be a "one step back, two steps forward" strategy, trade Nola, maybe Segura, and stock up on prospects, have a bad season or two and draft high, and continue to upgrade scouting and player development personnel. But I doubt they have the stomach for it.

bkox 2021-10-15 15:50:06 UTC #1126

If you are going to tank for 2 seasons... why not trade Wheeler? He would get much more than Nola and will be 34 in year 3 of that plan. Trading Nola now would be selling low.

zambonir 2021-10-15 16:23:49 UTC #1127

They didn't hire Dombrowski to tank. I'm sure some of the guys they did hire were all for it. It's also not something you can really do for only two years, as the Phillies themselves showed (they really only did three on purpose, and still drafted too high in one of those years. And in 2019 too though they seem to have gotten that one right).

And yeah. If you tank, you also trade Wheeler and JT.

That's not to say there isn't a way to trade Nola and Segura, but ti wouldn't be to play for draft picks. You'd want major league help and/or would flip some of what you get for major league help.

andyb 2021-10-15 16:34:30 UTC #1128

Maybe one thinks of trading Segura if one believes Stott is ready but is not a shortstop. But even then, there is frankly a case to just play Segura at SS and play Stott at 2B. Stott is creating a nice problem to have with his play this season and in Arizona. He really looks pretty close to ready. This would not even be seen as fast tracking him if he had not missed the COVID year.

Philsmania 2021-10-15 17:11:07 UTC #1129

The strides taken by Garcia make we wonder if he Stott will eventually be the middle infield of the future...or what Crawford and Kingery probably could have/should have been.

zambonir 2021-10-15 17:27:38 UTC #1130

I'm just afraid Segura could be this year's Didi or Cutch. Maybe that's irrational, especially if he is in better shape than he was (having also quite alcohol). But moving him back to SS makes him a lower-WAR player too. The overly pessimistic scenario is that Segure is just okay and the Phillies are just okay and he gets traded at the deadline to make room for Stott, but not for much return. The overly optimistic scenario is you trade him now (for a closer? an OF? prospects) and patch together 2B with Didi or cheap FAs (including Galvis) because you have a new big bat at SS.

Just throwing all caution to the wind and putting Stott on the Opening Day roster would be something but in that case wouldn't he be the SS?

andyb 2021-10-15 18:04:49 UTC #1131

I am probably the minority of one that actually thinks Didi could be decent next year. If the pseudogout condition is treatable, he was at least good offensively 2 years ago and we are really talking about holding down SS for 1 more year. Obviously Galvis could be a value at $2 million a year if that is what it costs to retain him, but the age of the players and regression to the mean logic might say that Bohm and Didi will be better next year and Segura worse. I see Galvis as a better offensive version of the Torreyes spot on the bench.

zambonir 2021-10-15 18:53:33 UTC #1132

I agree he could bounce back, just don't know that it should be at SS. A resurgent Didi at the plate is probably a higher WAR player than any version of Galvis or Torreyes, but I still think SS is where they probably need to go FA-wise...unless they seriously think Stott is going to be there.

I still think Did might be tradeable which is probably the easiest answer, but if not he could be a back-up/DH, or you could move Segura as a sell-high and try him at 2B. That's something you fix with Stott or at the deadline if he's cooked, or you could still trade him to make room for Stott if not.

Interesting to note Matt and others in that Good Phight piece basically predicting Stott will be this year's Kingery - he either gets an injury call-up or becomes the super-utility guy sooner than later.

It will be interesting to see just how much the Phillies value Galvis (for his alleged intangibles) and just how attached Joe is to Torreyes. Sure as heck can't have both, and no real reason to tender Torreyes either.

We may not have prospect depth or prospect greatness, but there is still a fair amount of surplus and redundance. One each of Moniak/Haseley (especially if Vierling is a LF platoon candidate), Maton/Williams (if Stott is really headed for the majors this season) and Marchan/O'Hoppe could go into deals as pieces, if not centerpieces.

Austinfan 2021-10-15 20:50:39 UTC #1133

Garcia to me is the wild card, he's filled out and has real strength now, his BB rate is off the wall (especially for a LA player who often feel they have to hit their way to the US). Combine his new found power, his stroke and his batting eye and I can see a player who might quickly jump levels. His defense is good enough you can give him time to master ML pitching.

I still hate rushing guys, I'd like to see Stott start in AAA, and Garcia in A+, and see Stott up after the all star break if he's handling AAA, and Garcia finish the season in AA or AAA, then start in AAA in 2023.

If you can get a decent half season from Didi, and get Bohm back on track, that would buy you the needed time.

allentown 2021-10-16 19:29:20 UTC #1134

I think it's a safe bet that Stott starts in AAA. I think both the Kingery experience and the need to have an adequate injury replacement, who doesn't have a guaranteed release date if not in Philly, stashed in Allentown guarantees that. I can see Stott doing a lot of up and down on the turnpike in 2022.

If you want to test out Garcia's power, getting him to Reading fairly soon seems a good idea.

andyb 2021-10-19 20:45:25 UTC #1135

Not much new, but Zolecki on some emerging prospects:

andyb 2021-11-01 00:05:23 UTC #1136

Mitch Rupert's annual survey of Phillies minor league writers about the system's top prospects. Lots of new support for O'Hoppe here. Luis Garcia the opposite. Interesting list though remember it is a composite.

https://twitter.com/Mitch_Rupert/status/1454853657405558785

EDmuch 2021-11-01 13:47:06 UTC #1137

I find it hard to believe that Moniak still appears on any ballots.

andyb 2021-11-01 14:13:57 UTC #1138

He just had a better season than Vierling at AAA when he was a year younger. And people (not me) are putting Vierling in the top 10 because his handful of major league ABs were better than Moniaks. Moniak still has a medium ceiling (as he could still be an average major league regular) and a high floor (4th outfielder is like 90% probable.

That is the sort of stuff that gets you ranked in the 15-20 range. I am not a huge fan of his but I do recognize that the prospect that has been average in AAA often has a better chance of major league success than the prospect who flashes in low A ball.

allentown 2021-11-01 14:33:16 UTC #1139

Especially in as weak a farm system as ours. Moniak also had a better CLW season than Vierling, and was two years younger. It is way too soon to say what we have with Vierling. Good at Reading and Philly this past year, but more not very good AAA AB sandwiched between the two.

Austinfan 2021-11-01 14:57:15 UTC #1140

When you're looking at a SSS at the ML level, how a player looks is more important than his raw stats. Vierling had a high exit velo, which says he was consistently making good contact, his .420 BABIP was unsustainable, and his 5.2/26.0 BB/K rate wasn't great. But he had BB rates of 11.8/10.2 and K rates of 17.6/19.5 in Reading and Lehigh, so that's probably an area where you can expect improvement.

Moniak did not show much improvement over two years ago, despite being 23 instead of 21, a slight uptick in power (given Reading boosts LH power, more of an uptick than ISO suggests), but still struggles to make contact and doesn't show good plate discipline, 7.6/24.7. Free swinging power hitters who don't hit for average have a limited ML future.