Phillies Prospect Lists

[fish]

Fascinating they they named a DSL player who is not really considered a top prospect the player of the year.

Or one that they even have a picture of.

[Purduke]

Fascinating they they named a DSL player who is not really considered a top prospect the player of the year. I think this is the first time they have ever done it. ..... Maybe the competition for the reward is guys like Josh Hendrickson and Ethan Lindow..

I think the Phils have been pretty consistant in giving the Owens to the player who they feel had the best year vs someone having to be a top prospect. Last 6 or 7 pitching winners ... Lindow, David Parkinson, Escelmann Lively, Ricardo Pinto, Luis Garcia and Tyler Cloyd after his 12-1 year at Lehigh. Were any of them considered among the top 5 pitchers in the minors. Maybe Eschelmann. Maybe. Cloyd was waived the following year.

[andyb]

It has nothing to do with any potential roster moves, but they brought some minor league prospects to CBP for some batting practice today.

https://twitter.com/ScottLauber/status/1440039341435207689

Stott also confirmed he was going to Arizona. Good to see Ortiz healing after the oblique injury. Dominican League would be a nice winter challenge for him. Luis Garcia and O'Hoppe also at batting practice.

[Austinfan]

Who knows about Cabrera? I mean we've seen a bunch of LA pitchers add a few MPH and go from suspect to prospect, Suarez is a good example. Unfortunately, it's hard to get news of these guys until they hit A ball, and even then some go under the radar for a year or two.

[andyb]

One could say that about any prospect in the DSL signed without a large bonus. That does not mean he is suddenly a prospect though. We will learn about it in scouting reports or against higher level competition, not really because he won this award in a year when all of our best pitching prospects did not put together a good season for whatever reason.

Still does not mean we should overlook guys who need a large bonus to sign. We just need to either find the right prospects or improve our development. The volume strategy of signing as many prospects as we can is just less effective now because of roster limits and signing pool caps.

[andyb]

This article does say Cabrera is up to 97, so that is more than I thought he had. Good news though he is 19 and has barely pitched of course.

Stott, Cabrera receive Paul Owens Awards

[Austinfan]

I'm too nice of a guy to ITYS.

[fish]

Josh Hendrickson lead the Phillies minor leagues with only 97 inning, and only he and Jack Perkins pitched more than 90 innings. That feels like a pretty telling stat that they didn’t even have a journeyman innings eater in the system.

[bigegypt0417]

Let's see if he lives up to the honor when he's stateside next season...that's the type of velocity that makes him someone we pay attention to.

[Austinfan]

Though to be fair, when they say "97" I think it's more likely to be 92-94, t97 once.
Which is still pretty darn good for 19 years old.

[andyb]

I assume the velocity is more like what AF says. Someone to watch, but really that velocity is more the minimum you want these days and not special. It gives him enough to advance. I doubt he is in our top 30 yet, which does not really highlight our depth. That more says that 50 innings with decent velocity in the DSL does not tell us much. He might be another Cristian Hernandez but Hernandez is a year older and putting up good performances 2 levels higher (at Clearwater). Hernandez is now 15th on the MLB site rankings.

[Austinfan]

Looking up our young DSL pitchers and their listed sizes (probably from age 16):

Jean Cabrera 6'0 145 (19)
Manuel Urias 6'6 200 (20)
Jesus Querales 6'0 175 (18)
Oswald Medina 6'0 145 (19)
Joalbert Angul 6'5 165 (19)
Giussepe Velasquez 6'1 170 (18)

I guess they promote the more physically mature ones to the FCL, and let the "skinny" ones have a few years to fill out and add velocity before bringing them over. Most of the bonus players in the DSL tend to be position players.

Ortega $575, Betancourt (20) $500K were in the FCL, Castillo $1.6M, Aldeghiri $210K in Clearwater, Vargas (20) $525K in Jersey Shore.

[Austinfan]

Anyone look at last night's Lehigh lineup?

Haseley RF
Bohm 3B
Moniak CF
Bonifacio DH
Stott SS
Marchan C (O'Hoppe)
Hall 1B
Maton 2B
Mazziotti LF (Randolph)
(Williams IF/OF on the Phillies, Kingery on IR)

Eastman started and threw 6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K

If they can get some of these prospects back on track, this could be a nice group to start next season and quickly arrive in Philly, this tournament will be a nice chance to get some PA before a bunch head off to Arizona.

On the other hand, Reading could be a disaster area to start next season, that a huge hole in the donut, while both A ball teams should be solid.

[andyb]

I just posted (with a little sarcasm) in the minor league thread that the lineup compares pretty well to Philly. Of course the reality is that guys in Philly (even Didi) would put up huge numbers in AAA, but it is a good lineup composed mostly of prospects. Of course the downside is that only Stott and Bohm look like starters at the moment. Everyone else has more of a reserve projection. And Eastman looks like a middle reliever projection at this point (without the velocity to be in the back of a bullpen).

It is better than nothing to have prospects that project to be major league reserves. We prefer those to 30-year-old AAAA players. But that lineup is unfortunately not a solution to most of our problems. I hope Stott claims a job somewhere, but 2023 is more likely for that than 2022.

[phillychuck]

Don't give up on Moniak being a starter at some point in the next two years.

For him, this is the big off-season. Get stronger, improve his bat-to-ball contact and strike-zone judgment incrementally, and compete for a job in spring training. This is his shot.

[andyb]

I am not giving up on Moniak. Certainly he slots above Haseley now and his power looks real. His median projection is still more of a 4th OF and it helps that he is left-handed. Much depends I guess on whether he can stick in CF with Phillies' management not being a believer in that.

When we talk projection, it is always a median projection. Bohm can project to be an above average regular who could put up 850-900 OPS marks that could make him playable regardless of the defense. He could also put up a 750 OPS and be limited to 1B and that is bad. Maton could start, for instance, in his ultimate projection, but most have him as more of a utility guy. Stott has more offense so his median is more of an average starter.

The main point is that AAA lineup is in no way an immediate solution to the Phillies' problem of having few homegrown underpaid regulars in their lineup. We need average regulars making the minimum for 3-4 years to be able to afford to pay older players more. That AAA lineup does not project to help too much in that respect in the next couple of years.

[Austinfan]

Who knows? We do know the development process was broken, as Dom fired half these guys after reviewing the results of the last few years. I find it hard to believe we missed on every 1st rd pick the last five years - it's not like these were egregious reaches (Moniak was a top 10 pick, even if not worthy of #1).

I'm curious to see what Arizona and a full spring training and more AAA time can do for some of these players.

How hard would it be to outperform Didi, Torreyes, Cutch, Herrera, Miller, Knapp, who've received substantial PT for the Phillies this year?

[andyb]

All we can do is project based upon what we know now. Nobody dismisses the possibility of upside (or downside) surprises. It is the likelihood of such that should be judged when assessing how much a team is likely to benefit from them in the near future. One could say it is theoretically possible that Mickey Moniak could win a couple of MVP awards in his career. It would not be likely though. When the majority of evaluators think Moniak will most likely be a 4th OF are we to dismiss them and assume we know more?

[phillychuck]

I'd take a cheap 3rd/4th OF for 6 years as a positive Moniak result. I'm still hoping for more, but at 24 it's unlikely. Would have been nicer if he had hit in the majors in his sporadic at bats.

[zambonir]

Mr. Dombrowski has his work cut out for him. We need cheap everyday players, including on the bench, but the roster also needs an immediate talent upgrade, and you can't keep all your prospects on the 40 forever if they are only bench players or in AAA. It's hard to imagine both Moniak and Haseley remaining in the system next year, or even all three of Kingery/Williams/Maton. Ideally The two you don't keep are included in trades.

Bohm presents a similar dilemma. You can't really sell low/punt early on him but if you're looking to make a really big trade he's your only semi-valuable piece besides Stott and the recent pitching draft picks, and the possibility of him being a bust (as a merely adequate 1B or LF) is high.