Phillies Prospect Lists

[nycphils]

That list is slightly less depressing than I expected. Very little on the premium prospect end, but actual depth in interesting lottery tickets.

Adonis Medina has to be the single most disappointing name on that list, with Gowdy and Randolph (24 y.o.) not far behind.

[Squire]

BA updated their Top 30s for the NL East Today:

1. Mick Abel, RHP
2. Andrew Painter RHP
3. Bryson Stott, SS
4. Johan Rojas, OF
5. Ethan Wilson, OF
6. Logan O'Hoppe, C
7. Rafael Marchan, C
8. Erik Miller, LHP
9. Matt Vierling, OF
10. Simon Muzziotti
11. Casey Martin, SS
12. Mickey Moniak CF
13. Luke Williams, INF/OF
14. Nick Maton, SS
15. Jordan Viars, OF
16. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF
17. Luis Garcia, SS
18. Yhoswar Garcia, CF
19. Micah Ottenbreit, RHP
20. Francisco Morales, RHp
21. Daniel Brito, INF
22. Rickardo Perez, C
23. Bailey Falter, LHP
24. Cristopher Sanchez, LHP
25. Cristian Hernandez, RHP
26. Logan Cerny, OF
27. Abrahan Gutierez, C
28. Christian McGowan, RHP
29. Griff McGarry RHP
30. Kendall Simmons, INF

Can't say I agree with much of that.

[bigegypt0417]

Morales at #20 is such a funny ranking.

[Patchmk88]

Yea. That looks like a thrown together list for the heck of it. The reason I love Matt’s list is there is a lot of thought behind it and he provides details so you can understand how it is composed. Now he does have th advantage of only having to look at one organizations system. However, BA and other services have a lot more bodies so that excuse doesn’t hole up to well.

[andyb]

The ranking of Ottenbreit right ahead of Morales is just kind of funny to look at. One guy has projection. The other actual velocity and a second present plus pitch. Some may downgrade Morales based upon performance this year, but there is just no way he falls out of the top 10. I am guessing every organization is going to ask about him this week to get him on the cheap.

Lists are hard to do with so little information, but on the other hand this just seems like a bad list. More like an MLB.com list where they start slotting in new draftees and trades without any consideration of the base rankings and how they might have changed.

[Squire]

Just seeing 6 guys who were drafted two weeks ago in our Top 30 is kinda depressing.

[Taudawg]

Just seeing 6 guys who were drafted two weeks ago in our Top 30 is kinda depressing.

I don't know, kinda gives me hope the organization is on a better path - doing things differently.

Unfortunately, the Klentak - Macphail era was a failure that will take several years to correct. We are contending, but at the same time, rebuilding from the rebuild.

[andyb]

Given that there are 30 top prospects and knowing that prospects rarely spend more than 5 years in the system as prospects, getting 5-6 every draft is kind of par for the course. It does not mean they are real prospects yet of course, but based on draft position and pre-draft ranking we should be turning over 20%-30% of our list every year through graduations and prospects not developing.

I just don't place too much confidence in rankings that had barely heard of our 3rd round pick (now 15th best prospect!!!) a few weeks ago.

[bkox]

BA needs to hire Winkleman

[phillychuck]

Squire, I would like to see your list!! Would it be much different than Winkleman's?

[bkox]

Squire, I would like to see your list!! Would it be much different than Winkleman's?

I second this

[Matt_Winkelman]

I don't want a new job. Tracking one org is much easier than covering a variety of orgs. I also have the advantage of having stared at just this one system for close to 10 years. On the draftee side, I had 5 in my top 30 and I looked back and typically top 5 round picks or top 5 round bonuses all are in the Top 30 range.

I definitely have my own biases and stubbornness on certain players or player types.

[Austinfan]

I think by the end of the season, we'll start getting a feel for whether the change in minor league development personnel and approach has started to bear fruit. It's encouraging to see a kid like Brito emerge, can they salvage Martin, teach Moniak (nice power) plate discipline, develop secondary pitchers, etc.

It's been hard to separate bad scouting from bad development, but it's hard to miss that badly on 1st rd picks.
On the one hand, it's scouting that finds young LA pitchers who can add 5 MPH as they fill out, it's development that teaches (or not) them to throw a couple good secondary pitches and improve their mechanics and command.

[bkox]

I know Matt. It was just meant as a compliment You are one of the most valued prospect guys we all follow.

[andyb]

Hey we need someone to tweet all those Jhailyn Ortiz home run videos so we don't have to find them ourselves. Nice list. Hopefully this board can increase your page views so you can make $0.50 off of it...

[bkox]

Before I forget. Because Baseball America put it out there, I can finally say that RHP Starlyn Castillo's season ending arm injury ended up causing him to have Tommy John surgery.

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) July 27, 2021

[Austinfan]

Yeah, aren't most season ending pitching injuries either TJ or shoulder troubles?
I think TJ has a better long-term prognosis.

[nycphils]

What’s the view of Jhailyn Ortiz at this point? 22 y.o. And still in High A after 4+ full seasons and the lost 2020.

Has improved from .653 OPS in 2019 to .878 OPS at the same level this year, but looks like that is influenced by a jump in BABIP and still striking out in 30-35% of his ABs. Reasonable hope, or Dead-Cat Bounce?

[phillychuck]

In between...he's always been able to hit long-distance HRs, and he's done that a lot in games this year, rather than in BP. Probably needs a whole year at AAA to adjust to the top level breaking stuff. He punishes mistakes, and there will still be plenty of those in MLB.

[andyb]

I think this is significant progress for Ortiz. The BABIP is actually about average for him. 2 years ago was abnormally low. A big difference also is the percentage of fly balls going out of the park with the further understanding that it is a tougher home run park. Walks are up. Ks are down a bit, though I admit all those things should happen at the same level.

He is probably in the 15-20 range for me. Still lots of swing and miss, but the huge power is something you do not see that often. His defense seems to have held too as he has gotten older since he has worked hard on getting in good shape. He needs to do it at higher levels though, hopefully Reading shortly. Only at those higher levels will we see if the swing and miss issues are fatal.