Phillies Prospect Lists

andyb 2021-01-28 14:35:26 UTC #921

Cue the "Keith Law Hates the Phillies" memes. Top 100 list has Howard at 62 and Abel unranked. Need to see what he did with other HS draftees in 2020 to know whether to criticize him on this. There may be a "not enough info" argument here for any raw prospect like Abel.

bigegypt0417 2021-01-28 14:41:56 UTC #922

It would be hard to think this is law having a bias since i remember him being very positive about the phillies drafting abel...he just might not have had room on his list.

andyb 2021-01-28 14:46:17 UTC #923

It is probably a really muddled 50-150 ranking too in baseball since nobody has seen these prospects in a year. There might be a bias towards a known quantity from college that they have seen pitch. I don't think he is biased. He clearly has his likes and dislikes among prospects. I do think he likes Abel too.

bigegypt0417 2021-01-28 14:57:36 UTC #924

i will say...law's list does have a good amount of "older" prospects but thats a product of a lost year.

kmc1019 2021-01-28 15:41:39 UTC #925

Not sure to what extent an echo chamber is in effect, but seems that various Top XXX prospect rankings this year make note that Player X, Y or Z was "very impressive at the alternate training site". And that comment is not associated with any Phillies prospects.

Whether the Phillies only included AA/AAA prospects at the training site whereas their best prospects Abel, Stott and arguably E Miller were not included because of lack of experience, or whether Stott just was not that impressive at the alternate site, but seems like the Phillies prospects have dropped on these lists more for lack of anyone seeing them last year than due to performance or a re- and lower valuation of their tools. Of course, could always be that - with graduation of Bohm - the farm system is still as barren as it has mostly been for the past decade, and notably in the absence of blue-chip prospects.

fish 2021-01-28 16:34:56 UTC #926

the Phils also didn't let anyone in to see their training site, which isn't to say I think they had a bunch of guys blossom into top prospects.

andyb 2021-01-28 17:19:17 UTC #927

The Phillies also invited fewer young prospects to their camp than most teams who often invited much of their top 10. Stott was the only low level prospect we invited. No Francisco Morales for instance who probably had about the same chance of appearing in a major league game as Stott (i.e. near zero).

The Phillies were on TV if you recall, so some people got a glimpse there.

Taudawg 2021-01-29 12:43:28 UTC #928

MLB's list is out https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-top-100-prospects-list-breakdown

fish 2021-01-29 15:58:48 UTC #929

Could have had Ke'bryan hayes instead of Cornelius Randolph...2015 and 2016 drafts were like a bad relationship you can't forget.

gmwannabe 2021-01-29 19:00:44 UTC #930

Boy what a miss!! and it's even Charlie's son. .Who picked Corny? Was it John Quinn.
gm

Taudawg 2021-01-29 19:09:24 UTC #931

Well he did go 32nd overall, so a lot of people missed on Hayes. (This is not a defense of the Phillies' poor drafting)

andyb 2021-02-01 17:03:48 UTC #932

Abel is among the 12 who just missed Law's list. Reason given is really just the risk of high school pitchers developing (combined a little with him not playing last season).

And in "sort of prospect news" Kevin Goldstein returns to Fangraphs and discusses the whole Astros cheating incident:

zambonir 2021-02-01 18:32:23 UTC #933

Oh wow - good to have Kevin back writing.

andyb 2021-02-10 13:48:15 UTC #934

Keith Law farm system rankings. Phillies 27th. AL reports later this week. NL next week.

kmc1019 2021-02-10 15:28:12 UTC #935

Depressing though hard to argue with Law's assessment. Marlins and Braves in Top 6.

Taudawg 2021-02-10 15:38:16 UTC #936

It is going to be difficult to improve the ranking over the next couple years without some creative strategies. Even if they plan to contend, they will need to think like the Rays or Athletics to rebuild the farm - trade players with value with controllable years and lower cost. Hoskins and Eflin come to mind, but I'm not sure how much return they bring.

andyb 2021-02-10 15:45:39 UTC #937

I think improvement to the middle of the pack is very possible. All it takes is a couple more top 100 prospects. There is clearly a world where 3 or 4 of the following prospects: Abel, Stott, Morales, Rojas, Martin - become top 100 prospects along with our next number 1 pick and a couple of the really young international prospects that have not played yet like Yhoswar Garcia.

This is not to say it will happen, but we are near the bottom because we missed on a half dozen high picks or signings like Moniak. I was encouraged by the strategy from the most recent draft. International spending has been below average the last couple of years so we will need a little luck, but it is certainly possible.

Now I don't see a top 10 system too easily without a bunch of rebuilding trades, but the team should not really be mired in the middle with no hope if they are drafting near the middle like they have the last few years.

allentown 2021-02-10 16:13:21 UTC #938

A skilled scouting department and development staff will trump luck every day of the week. Any team can get lucky, even if they've scored some hits with talented scouts and development staff -- they can still luck into other prospects. I await evidence, rather than wish-and-a-hope that changes made to our baseball-side staff have improved our level of professional talent. In a way Abel is a big test and thus far I am optimistic about him, as I am about Bohm. I am not optimistic about Yhoswar Garcis, because I have seen no evidence that our international scouting has improved. Given how the Phillies have operated internationally, I am suspicious that signing Yhoswar at the agreed bonus, was largely an attempt to mitigate bad PR over getting duped on his real age -- just as we paid the full, staggering $4 million bonus to Ortiz after his star had greatly faded prior to signing day. Other teams have the courage to walk away. We don't. It is very hard to have a farm system ranked this low, when you have had the favorable draft slots which we have enjoyed.

I think our fatal flaw is OFs. I hope "The Phillies Way" has been burnt, because we have a decades long inability to identify and develop amateur OF prospects. Burrell was a no-brainer pick and also really a first baseman. We have devoted huge draft and international bonus $ to outfielders in the draft and internationally and have come up empty. We are way beyond 'bad luck' as the explanation for our inability to develop a home-grown, above-average MLB OF. The Phillies organization clearly does not understand what talents and training make a plus MLB OF, nor have they been especially nurturing or effective in protecting the physical health of young OFs.

andyb 2021-02-10 16:27:43 UTC #939

I don't disagree with any of that, but the people running the draft have changed and all we really need to be middle of the pack is for the new team to consistently hit on their high picks. We probably would have ranked 10 spots higher for instance if Bohm had not accumulated the plate appearances to be no longer eligible and if we had just one more high-ranked prospect beyond that.

We are ranked low because we only have 1 or 2 top 100 prospects. It is not a long road towards having 3 or 4. That was my main point. There are clearly things we need to improve on internationally and developmentally, but it is also clear that our really low ranking is partially based on the disaster of the 2016 draft (where most who ran that are gone) and the graduation of Bohm.

andyb 2021-02-12 17:36:48 UTC #940

And getting back to prospect lists, ESPN weighs in.

Top 100: Howard 44th, no Abel.

Organizational rankings: 24th, $138 million of future value (22nd and $181 million last year with Bohm being the big difference).

And top breakout prospect - Johan Rojas. Clearwater CF? (of course that means a bit less this year but assume Rojas is a one level at a time player even with the year off.