Phillies Prospect Lists

[bigegypt0417]

I think it's easy for you to convince yourself of anything to make your point...he's a highly regarded prospect in the mold of almost every other highly regarded LA prospect.

[andyb]

I would dispute that. He has better tools than Tocci with more power potential. He is a guy with a scouting report that merited his $2.5 million bonus.

The big question for me has always been whether the extra year means we can expect less improvement in his performance than if he had been a year younger. A 17-year-old has less time to improve than a 16-year-old and their evaluation had them playing against players a year younger.

I still think he is a prospect. He just would have received a bonus half the size if teams had known he was a year older. That should be important in how we evaluate him in that he has one less year in which he can improve.

[allentown]

No. He's the only recent top-rated LA prospect to lose a year for lying about his age by a year and then missing FIL due to Covid. A rather unique case.

[allentown]

To Andy: Of course it does. Since the commitment to him and scouting evaluation was likely made when he was supposed 15, but actually was 16, that means he was unknowingly graded on a curve against younger guys, who were presumed to be the same age. Analysis has shown that it is necessary to adjust even for young H.S. seniors vs old H.S. seniors. Being a year older, and then missing a year, gives less time both for physical maturation (thus setting a lower ceiling) and for refining baseball skills. Both the age discrepancy (apart from what it says about character) and the lost two years of formal development, do matter.

[fish]

For what it's worth, they are different body types. Tocci was a twig with exceptional bat control, just not enough strength to really impact the ball. Garcia is, I'm not sure slight is the best word, but thin. However, he looks ripped in an athletic sinewy strong way.

[Austinfan]

However, Ortiz shows that players who physically mature early can't be projected to follow the same curve as their peers. So whether being a year older means Garcia won't mature as much as his peers, or whether he just a late bloomer is still to be determined.

I mean if it was obvious, Trout would have been the 1st pick his draft year, the difference between him and Moniak is Trout filled out without slowing down or losing bat speed. But that's hard to project, which is why, all else held equal, teams prefer to draft college players who are 21-22.

[allentown]

teams prefer to draft college players who are 21-22.

Very strongly true for position players, a bit less so for pitchers. The Phillies hit with Rollins in the second round, but have generally had horrendous results picking H.S. position players in round 1. We've done better with pitchers. I'm fine with the Abel pick, injury risk and all. No obvious Nola around when we made our pick.

[andyb]

I don't think teams prefer to draft players of any particular age. They just know the risk is less with older players given the same tools. In general they want the best player available with the best chance to succeed and they weigh that risk/benefit scenario.

[Austinfan]

That's why I said all else held equal.

For pitchers, they'd prefer a 22 year old who has shown himself to be durable than an 18 year old who can be projected with slightly higher velo but far less information about command, secondary pitchers and durability.

[andyb]

No, they don't "prefer" either. They know the 22 year old would require a higher draft pick because of certainty than the 18-year-old. They are perfectly happy to draft the 18-year-old in the 3rd round for less money if that is the best risk/reward decision they can make. The Phillies were perfectly happy to draft Abel this year because the college pitchers selected at that point of the draft had much lower ceilings.

[Austinfan]

You just proved my point, "They know the 22 year old would require a higher draft pick". i.e. is more valuable.

Which is why over time draft position reflects expected value, which is a product of both upside and the probability of reaching said upside. However, you also have to adjust for risk b/c the supply of top draft picks/bonus babies is limited, so a team can't count on the law of large numbers - so they discount the riskier player.

By the time the Phillies picked, Abel's higher risk was balanced by his higher upside. But the higher risk of HS pitchers means you will have more flops for every guy who develops into a top starter. Because you may only draft 3 or 4 HS pitchers at the top of the draft over a decade, bad luck can make you look like an awful drafter, whereas hit one "lottery ticket" (late round pick) HS pitcher and all the misses are forgotten.

[andyb]

Then your point is non-sensical. Teams draft the best risk/reward scenario. Would they love to be presented with a Stephen Strasburg at the 15th pick of the draft? Sure. They just know it won't happen and they are perfectly happy drafting a Mick Abel who might have a 10% chance of being a Strasburg and a 50% chance of being a good major league pitcher. We all know how the draft works. We also know the Phillies are mediocre at weighing all these factors.

[andyb]

They no longer put the list above the paywall, but if someone is a subscriber....

2021 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies Top 10 Prospects - Baseball Prospectus

The tweet references Johan Rojas so assume he is a little higher on this list. He also was Jim Bowden's most underrated prospect. A little disappointed we have not seen him in the Dominican league this offseason though he is a little young for that.

The most underrated prospects for all 30 MLB teams: Jim Bowden's list

Other lists should be coming soon. Prospects1500 is doing a team a day in January so that list will be in the next 19 days. Fangraphs too, though they are much slower. One note on the Red Sox list they just ranked Connor Seabold 8th. The list is done by a Philly guy so maybe a little bias but there are spin rates and new pitches noted. I was never that high on Seabold but he does seem improved now (and we did give him away because we were cheap).

[andyb]

And here is the Prospects1500 list:

Philadelphia Phillies 2021 Top 50 Prospects | Prospects1500

I think I like the BP list a bit more with its aggressive rankings of Abel (1) and Rojas (5). This list is more a fan of Kendall Simmons (5) and Casey Martin (6). Not that I do not like them as prospects. Just want to see a little more before I rank them that high. Neither may have a good enough hit tool and there are defensive questions with both as to where they fit.

[Austinfan]

Simmons has the power to move to 3B, Martin I'm more skeptical about, can he hit enough to play anywhere but middle IF?

[andyb]

BA top 100 list. Howard 27th and Abel 99th.

2021 Top 100 MLB Prospects

[andyb]

Baseball Prospectus list. Abel 54, Howard 65. It does seem Howard is dropping in most of these rankings after his somewhat disappointing 2020. Not entirely fair, but it is the only new info these rankings have to go on. No new info on Stott of course, so he has a hard time moving up into anyone's top 100.

2021 Prospects: The Top 101 - Baseball Prospectus

[andyb]

Keith Law top 100 due Thursday though the organizational top 20s will not be done until the week after the Super Bowl.

[allentown]

I don't drop him for lack of skill, but I certainly think it made sense to drop him after shoulder woes two years in a row and never throwing anything approaching a satisfactory number of IP for a SP. I see him as a serious injury risk and a guy who will stress the BP and likely need to be replaced by the #6 SP later in season, because of issues with IP/shoulder soreness.

[andyb]

It is mainly the increased risk that the list is based on. We still don't know whether Howard's body can handle the increased load of throwing consistently in the mid-90s. His record is a spotty and risky as Sixto's was regarding workload.