Phillies Prospect Lists

[Squire]

With Bohm graduating off the Prospects list, Phillies 4th Round Pick RHP RHP Carson Ragsdale enters the Phillies MLB.com at #30

[andyb]

I guess whether Howard and Romero remain eligible will depend on how MLB treats September service time on the roster. They both won't hit the innings limit this year but if you pro-rated their roster time they probably should not be rookie eligible next year.

MLB loves to rank recent draftees. Really no idea if Ragsdale is top 30 material with no performance history. There are probably a dozen players in the low minors that could easily be better but just did not get a chance to play this year.

[andyb]

We are back into prospect ranking season, though this year the rankings will probably look a lot like last year minus graduations and plus new draftees or Latin American signings. BA started with the AL East but are moving onto the NL East next with the Marlins list up today (Sixto number 1 of course).

Howard retains his eligibility for the Phillies. Bohm does not.

Here is a small state of the system article on MILB (not sure there is a better place to put it - this topic can go to 1,500 posts so might as well use it for this year).

State of the System: Philadelphia Phillies

Note BA schedule has the Phillies list available on Wednesday (11/18).

[Austinfan]

One problem is the COVID season meant we didn't get to see if the coaching changes and greater dependence on Driveline has paid off in player development. It's always been a question whether it's bad drafting, bad development or both, but the Phillies haven't produced many diamonds in the rough the last few yaers.

[Squire]

BA Top 10

1. Spencer Howard, RHP
2. Mick Abel, RHP
3. Bryson Stott, SS
4. Francisco Morales, RHP
5. Rafael Marchan, C
6. Luis Garcia, SS
7. Yhoswar Garcia, OF
8. Simon Muzziotti, OF
9. Johan Rojas, OF
10. Nick Maton, SS

[allentown]

At this moment in time, I cannot support ranking Yhoswar Garcia as high as 7. This is simply a knee-jerk vote for him, because the Phillies gave him their largest bonus, despite recent evidence with Encarnacion and Ortiz that the Phillies judgment has been horrendously flawed -- everybody has big bonus guys that don't make it as stars, or regulars, or worse even not major leaguers, but thee Phillies recent record on big $, international position players is abysmal. Add to that the guy misstating his age by a year and then missing a full year of development due to suspension and Covid and that is giving far too much credit to our organization. He needs to show something on the field, before he is ranked top 10. Too bad we foolishly lost Grullon. He should be at the bottom of this list.

[andyb]

I think ranking Garcia 7th is more of a sign of the mid-level weakness in the system (though I think I would elevate someone like Kendall Simmons if they wanted to make a statement about a low level prospect). On the other hand I think scouts have seen lots of video on Yhoswar Garcia and the fact that they still consider him a prospect is good. He is kind of similar tool-wise to Johan Rojas, though of course I would rank Rojas higher since he has actually done something.

Biggest change here is Marchan I guess and his meteoric rise this past season to the Phillies roster probably predicted it. I do still wonder of course that he might go to Reading and hit .220 with a .650 OPS.

The lack of ranking for Moniak is also telling. Nick Maton is a nice utility player prospect who I do think could fill that backup role better than the older players we have been bringing in like Gosselin lately, but I don't think anyone considers him that good a prospect.

The other thing to notice about the list is the lack of pitching. Only 3 pitchers on the last and we consider Howard already a major leaguer. This underscores how we really need Abel and Morales to succeed and should not even consider trading them. Our pitching prospects are just paper thin at the moment.

Edit - Salisbury article on the list:

2 big arms lead Baseball America’s Phillies Top 10 prospect list

[andyb]

Too bad we foolishly lost Grullon. He should be at the bottom of this list.

BTW he is killing the ball in the first few Dominican League games. 4-9 with a HR so far. As we look at a potential future without Realmuto, it sure would be nice to have the extra option since Marchan really needs another year of offensive development. They probably would not have gone into the year with just Knapp and Grullon, but that was an unnecessary loss. I wonder if Klentak took some internal criticism for that last year when JT got hurt.

[Austinfan]

I think Marchan is similar to Luis Garcia, all the tools are there, they just need added strength.
They are the type that can make huge jumps as they physically mature, same with Rojas.

I think while Grullon is a loss, it shouldn't be exaggerated, with the improvement by Knapp, we have a top backup catcher, and that was Grullon's upside. And there isn't a huge age difference between the two.

Marchan is clearly a much better athlete, the only question is whether he can translate his high level of contact as he adds strength to become a solid gap hitter, defensively he's going to be a plus catcher.

[andyb]

I think Marchan is similar to Luis Garcia, all the tools are there, they just need added strength.

Marchan has below average offensive tools across the board. It is not just strength, he really has not had a good offensive season yet. Garcia at least has a history of hitting .369 in an age appropriate league.

If I had to pick one and guess which would have the better major league career I would pick Garcia in a heartbeat. He just has many more paths to success and still has plenty of time to get there. Marchan is a nice story as a prospect, but he really does not profile as better than a defensive oriented backup catcher at this point.

[Austinfan]

Uh, Marchan had a RC+ 127 at age 17 in GCL.
At 19, in Williamsport, RC+ 110
At 20, in Lakewood, RC+ 105

Marchand has consistently maintained a low K rate, and has improved his BB rate.
His biggest problem was lack of power, ISOs of .053, .061, .068.
As he adds strength, his BABIP should improve, as should his SA.

Should probably start this year in AA ball, though might start in Lehigh given his experience last summer.

[bigegypt0417]

At this moment in time, I cannot support ranking Yhoswar Garcia as high as 7. This is simply a knee-jerk vote for him, because the Phillies gave him their largest bonus, despite recent evidence with Encarnacion and Ortiz that the Phillies judgment has been horrendously flawed -- everybody has big bonus guys that don't make it as stars, or regulars, or worse even not major leaguers, but thee Phillies recent record on big $, international position players is abysmal. Add to that the guy misstating his age by a year and then missing a full year of development due to suspension and Covid and that is giving far too much credit to our organization. He needs to show something on the field, before he is ranked top 10. Too bad we foolishly lost Grullon. He should be at the bottom of this list.

Why would it be a knee-jerk vote?

His scouting reports were still pretty impressive and he's basically the same age as a high school graduate.

[andyb]

Uh, Marchan had a RC+ 127 at age 17 in GCL.
At 19, in Williamsport, RC+ 110
At 20, in Lakewood, RC+ 105

Uh, No. His age 17 season was in the DSL. Big difference. At 18 he had a 588 OPS in GCL (much worse than Luis Garcia at age 17). Then those age 19 and 20 seasons (you left out the 573 OPS work at Clearwater at age 20) are kind of mediocre. He just has not shown he is a good hitter and major leaguers tend to do much better than your RC+ of 105 or 110.

You said he has "all the tools". He just doesn't.

[allentown]

BA seems to have a knee-jerk reaction to add any first-round pick or highest high-$ international signee to the top 10, even if they are as awful as LGJ, Randolph, or Encarnacion. They want to be up front with bright new penny. I don't think the new top $ guys ever fail to make the top 10.

[nycphils]

Unfortunately I’m hard pressed to think of any prospect that really needed to gain strength to succeed where the Phillies managed to make that happen. Tocci? Obviously not. Marchan? Not yet. Muzziotti? Not yet. Luis Garcia? Not yet. Randolph? Nope.

Maybe others have counter examples I’m not thinking of, but this seems like an organizational failing.

[andyb]

It did work for Freddy Galvis. Just about every prospect will add strength between the age of 18 and 22 though. It is something that Marchan is probably doing. It is not something, however, where we can assume he will suddenly have 10-20 HR power. I am just hoping he'll have enough offense to survive as a defensive oriented catcher like Carlos Ruiz did.

[mdougherty12]

It did work for Freddy Galvis. Just about every prospect will add strength between the age of 18 and 22 though. It is something that Marchan is probably doing. It is not something, however, where we can assume he will suddenly have 10-20 HR power. I am just hoping he'll have enough offense to survive as a defensive oriented catcher like Carlos Ruiz did.

I guess the Phils just need to get their prospects on an anabolic steroid regimen.

[zambonir]

Hah, I'd almost forgotten about Freddy's suspension!

Yhoswar was still a pretty well-regarded prospect, I assume he'd make the list for a lot of teams... just not teams with better systems. Same goes for Abel really. certainly don't think BA overrates him just because the Phillies might, can't imagine they give the Phillies that much credit. It really is far more distressing that the likes of Moniak and Ortiz don't crack the list.

In retrospect, letting Grullon go so easily seems like another sign of overconfidence that JT was coming back, though in the long run it probably doesn't matter, even without JT they were not going to spend the next two years with him and Knapp (and Marchan) as the major league catchers.

[andyb]

Kyle Young has apparently retired:
https://twitter.com/tombaseball29/status/1329623761646100483

[allentown]

Yhoswar was still a pretty well-regarded prospect,

His write-up reads a lot like Tocci. Great D, good speed, possibly good contact skill, weak, very light for his height. At 19 and no organized baseball, he is too old to lose a steroid year ala Galvis.