Phillies Prospect Lists

[kmc1019]

Anyone not enjoying watching Kyle Lewis' strong start in Seattle is likely to have their disappointment in Phillies' recent drafts made worse by the Angels' call-up of 5-tool, possible franchise player Jo Adell today (passed over in favor of Adam Haseley):

Angels promote Jo Adell, the No. 2 prospect in baseball, per report

[phillychuck]

Just tell anyone who is upset that Haseley is hitting .556 with a 1.333 OPS. That should shut them up.

[Squire]

New MLB.com Top 100 and Phillies Top 30 out

Bohm 32
Howard 37
Stott 98
Abel 100

[Squire]

MLB.com Updated Phillies Top 30

1. Alec Bohm, 3B (32 Overall)
2. Spencer Howard, RHP (37 Overall)
3. Bryson Stott, SS (98 Overall)
4. Mick Abel, RHP (100 Overall)
5. Francisco Morales, RHP
6. Adonis Medina, RHP
7. Luis Garcia, SS
8. Rafael Marchan, C
9. Casey Martin, SS
10. Enyel De Los Santos, RHP
11. Erik Miller, LHP
12. Simon Muzziotti, CF
13. Mickey Moniak, CF
14. Nick Maton, SS
15. Jojo Romero, LHP
16. Damon Jones, LHP
17. Mauricio Llovera, RHP
18. Johan Rojas, CF
19. Cristopher Sanchez, LHP
20. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF
21. Rodolfo Duran, C
22. David Parkinson, LHP
23. Connor Seabold, RHP
24. Cole Irvin, LHP
25. Yhoswar Garcia, OF
26. Deivy Grullon, C
27. Ethan Lindow, LHP
28. Kendall Simmons, INF
29. Arquimedes Gamboa, SS
30. Kyle Dohy, LHP

Comment: While I appreciate the 4 player inclusion on the Top 100 this list seems less accurate to me than the BA list. Guys Like O'Hoppe and Baylor should clearly be on it.

[phillychuck]

Comment: While I appreciate the 4 player inclusion on the Top 100 this list seems less accurate to me than the BA list. Guys Like O'Hoppe and Baylor should clearly be on it.

MLB stays "on" failed older prospects in general much more than BA, who seem to prefer guys who haven't proven they can't play yet. On this list De Los Santos is way too high (I'm not sure he's above the mid-20s for me), Muzziotti is too low, for me Simmons is too low, and I like Grullon way more than they do.

[Squire]

Random Prospect Question.

How exactly does MLB.com come up with an "overall" prospect rating. Here is Yhoswar Garcia

Hit 55
Power 50
Speed 60
Arm 50
Speed 55

Overall 40

That has to be a typo right? I mean I'm pretty good at Math and that doesn't make much sense to me.

SQUIRE

[andyb]

Doesn't MLB.com usually rank only new players (and remove graduated prospects) during the season? Is this really a complete new list or is it their old list updated with the new draftees and international players? It is not like they have seen these prospects in action to re-rank them either. It is nice to have 4 in the top 100, but the reality is that our prospect graduations have been later than some other organizations and both Bohm and Howard are likely not eligible by the end of the year. So we will be back to 2 in the top 100 (though Abel and Stott might move up a dozen places because of cumulative prospect graduations).

[julio]

How exactly does MLB.com come up with an "overall" prospect rating.

1. Locate Hat
2. Close Eyes
3. Insert Hand Into Hat
4. Grope
5. Grasp Piece of Paper
6. Withdraw Hand
7. Open Eyes
8. Read Number on Piece of Paper

[zambonir]

Is the 40 a percentile relative to all other players, rather than an average of the tools? i.e. Garcia averages out to a 54 rating, and 60% of the other prospects are better than that?

(julio might be more on the money. it seems like you can just give whatever overall grade you want, i.e. a "gut" assessment rather than a formula?)

[andyb]

Most likely they are confusing future tool grades with present prospect status (which incorporates present tools with the likelihood of reaching future tools).

Would be less confusing if they would show the hit tool as something like 35 present/55 future.

Or they are just flat out wrong about the tool ratings and are part of a business model that likes to hype future prospects....

[fish]

Random Prospect Question.

How exactly does MLB.com come up with an "overall" prospect rating. Here is Yhoswar Garcia

Hit 55
Power 50
Speed 60
Arm 50
Speed 55

Overall 40

That has to be a typo right? I mean I'm pretty good at Math and that doesn't make much sense to me.

SQUIRE

They don't really mean "Overall", they mean Future Value which considers risk and distance from the big leagues. In Yoshwar's case, they are much higher on his package of tools than I would have thought.

[Squire]

BA just re-ranked the Farm Systems Mid-Seasons (after the draft). They ranked us 26th. I guess setting the entire 2016 draft on fire has consequences.

Top 100 prospects (2): RHP Spencer Howard (28), 3B Alec Bohm (29)

The Skinny: In normal systems, having two Top 30 prospects would mean inclusion in the upper echelon of baseball. Aside from first-round picks RHP Mick Abel and SS Bryson Stott, however, the system’s quality takes a short, sharp dive. Third-round pick SS Casey Martin, who was among the most tooled-up players available in the draft, could give the group a boost with a strong pro debut in 2021, however.

[allentown]

So, basically he's saying he thinks that our farm has effectively no depth whatsoever?

[andyb]

Maybe they are unconsciously graduating the top 2 prospects. End of the season Abel and Stott probably rank in the 80-100 range at best. It is about to become a system where Francisco Morales becomes our number 3 prospect.

[phillychuck]

Yeah, not much experienced, quality system depth behind Bohm and Howard. However, I'm pretty optimistic about the young guys (if the minor leagues ever play again...).

[andyb]

All the talk of a Fall prospect league seems to have died down with the virus surges in FL and AZ unfortunately.

[zambonir]

Oh I bet they do something, it will just be a lot later so they get through the MLB season first (especially since many prospects are on team's 60-man roster). That also lets them see if there's SEC football and NFL.

They could even do a true bubble in Orlando, NBA will be gone by then, though I doubt MLB wants to spring for that kind of expense for minor leaguers.

I just wonder where all these guys are. We know Moniak is in Clearwater rehabbing. We can be pretty sure Mick Abel is back in Oregon working with his private coach, and lots of other guys too I'm sure (especially if they have big agents or ties to people like Driveline). But what about all the Latin players who would otherwise be in Florida now? Can't imagine they all went home. I guess they are all getting paid enough - and more than they would if be if they were in the lower level leagues - that they could just be living there as they normally would.

[andyb]

I think they do Spring Training sites so it is more like a Gulf Coast League but with all FL teams participating. In reality that would be like 6 teams in the Tampa St. Pete Ft. Myers area like Spring Training and maybe a league championships at the end.

They don't really need a bubble because they lose no money shutting down. If a team has an outbreak then that team shuts down. Teams are working out at FL and AZ complexes anyway to some degree. A prospect league would not be that different.

[zambonir]

My impression was that only injured players are allowed at the complexes right now, but could be wrong.

I just figure they need something a lot bigger than the AFL, even with Florida added on. We only usually send what, 5 or 6 guys to AFL? This would be more like a the actual complex leagues, except in the fall, and with a short season.

[andyb]

The concept they batted around in June was each club having a team:

MLB Reportedly Considering Expanded Fall League For Prospects

No news the last 2 months on this though so clearly they are going to wait until October now. It probably would have been 30 players per team mixing the better prospects from A through AAA. Probably hoping for an instructional league for the younger players still on the side.

I am guessing we are backing up to just an expanded instructional league. Local travel and maybe teams having a couple of teams. This means a lot of Dunedin and Tampa for the Phillies.