Phillies Prospect Lists

[julio]

Probably good to have a rule for these lists to not rank players that have not played a professional game yet. Everything else is just so speculative. Fun to talk about, but really not grounded in much evidence.

A rule? Why? What difference does it make what these rankings say? A rule demanding that sportswriters (or writers in general) be consistent, just to be consistent? Emerson spoke to that.

[andyb]

I guess we should rank 12-year-olds. Everyone making rankings does make eligibility rules. At times you get a little too sensitive about things.

[julio]

I guess we should rank 12-year-olds. Everyone making rankings does make eligibility rules. At times you get a little too sensitive about things.

Maybe I do. But it's...I don't know, amusing?... that you question my sensitivity in this context. I mean, you're complaining about an utterly irrelevant "ranking" produced by a journalist, who apparently changed his mind in the past couple of weeks. Who cares? Why do we even notice, much less feel compelled to complain? To propose "official" remedies?

OTOH, I've never quite understood the Philadelphia inferiority complex that sees.... well, everything... as somehow a slight on our fair city. I seriously doubt we would be having this discussion if rankings at two different times had somehow "dissed" a prospect other than the kid WE drafted.

[andyb]

OTOH, I've never quite understood the Philadelphia inferiority complex that sees.... well, everything... as somehow a slight on our fair city.

We do have a history of signing the lesser brother.

[bkeich]

My complaint is very specific. Abel was ranked 11th in the draft rankings two weeks ago.

Your point is valid, but one could also argue that he has been drafted with a below average recent history of getting prospects to succeed in the majors. The Phils have not developed well at all for a few years now, we had a supposedly top 5 farm system and none of those players are even average ML players.

Not sure if that plays a part or not.

[LoneStarPhan]

As noted, each compiler of a list can set their own rules as to who is eligible.

Until they produce, they are just prospects, although it is fun to dream of greatness to come.

Just a small look back that I saw recently in an article on Jeff Jackson:

> 30 years ago, Jeff Jackson was one of the best young baseball players in the country. A native of Chicago, he was the 1989 Gatorade High School Player of the Year and was selected with the fourth overall pick in that year’s draft.

[zambonir]

It actually seems fair to me that if BA thinks certain teams are really good at identifying and developing talent, one of those teams picking a player would affect their estimation of said player.

[fish]

It actually seems fair to me that if BA thinks certain teams are really good at identifying and developing talent, one of those teams picking a player would affect their estimation of said player.

Also that the collective BA staff ranking draft prospects is probably not the same as the one ranking top 100.

[schillingfan]

Also, he was 11th ranked before the draft, but dropped to 16th pick. That could have caused them to decide they had overvalued him, not because the Phillies picked him, but because other teams didn’t.

[Purduke]

Also, he was 11th ranked before the draft, but dropped to 16th pick. That could have caused them to decide they had overvalued him, not because the Phillies picked him, but because other teams didn’t.

I think this may have been the biggest factor. The two kids that jumped Abel were Hassell (ranked 16; drafted 8) and Kjerstad (ranked 13; drafted 2). They were ranked 98 and 99 -- I suspect Abel was not far below the 100 slot. Supporting that is also Max Meyer who was raked at 10 (slot above Abel) but had late lift and was drafted at # 3. He jumped to the 61st rank in the top 100, and in doing so jumped players originally ranked at 6 (Mitchell), 7 (Venn), 8 (Detmers) and 9 (Hendrick). Abel is ranked at 11; drafted at 15 and so as you say -- it fits.

All that said, I'm not sure I believe there is a perfect overlay between the two forecasts. Lots of people foreswear HS RHers as first picks in the draft, perhaps that follows in Top 100 prospect picks too but where does that stop when you include several former HS RHers who have had no to very marginal action since the 2019 draft. Also -- both Hasell and Kjerstad are bats with high hit tools -- probably more safe to make the majors given they probably look to be able to play multiple spots to get there. It's a valid question, if this was staff work I would certainly ask it myself but might also expect that a valid explaination would be forthcoming.

[zambonir]

Some rankings (both for a draft and for prospects) put more weight on pure talent (or upside), others on projection. Hard to project a HS pitcher even in a normal year; I would think the weirdness of this gives an extra edge, collectively, to college or position players.

I would also think elevating Kjerstad just because the Orioles took him 2nd to underpay him is dubious, but that #2 has power.

[LoneStarPhan]

Better to have a prospect not ranked into the top hundred who makes it to a successful big league career than a Dom Brown who tops the rankings but struggles in the majors. Of course, we would like our prospects to be ranked highly and then go on to great ML careers.

Frankly, the Phillies are due for some draftees to really turn out to be great players.

[zambonir]

Well, Dom Brown was also a 20th-round draft pick so it's safe to say he wasn't anywhere near a top 100 prospects list his first couple of seasons.

[Squire]

BA Updated Top 30 (as of 7/28/2020)

1. Spencer Howard, RHP
2. Alec Bohm, 3B
3. Mick Abel, RHP
4. Bryson Stott, SS
5. Yhoswar Garcia, OF
6. Francisco Morales, RHP
7. Rafael Marchan, C
8. Luis Garcia, SS
9. Nick Maton, SS
10. Casey Martin, SS
11. Adonis Medina, RHP
12. Mickey Moniak, OF
13. Johan Rojas, OF
14. Simon Muzziotti, OF
15. Enyel De Los Santos, RHP
16. Erik Miller, LHP
17. Andrick Nava, C
18. Ramon Rosso, RHP
19. JoJo Romero, LHP
20. Deivy Grullon, C
21. Cristopher Sanchez, LHP
22. Damon Jones, LHP
23. Jamari Baylor, SS
24. Addison Russ, RHP
25. Kendall Simmons, 2B/3B
26. Logan O'Hoppe, C
27. Ethan Lindow, LHP
28. Connor Brogdon, RHP
29. Mauricio Llovera, RHP
30. Abraham Gutierrez, C

[andyb]

Aggressive rankings for Yhoswar Garcia and Casey Martin. Garcia especially. Where Martin is ranked there really are no great prospects so you might as well rank him there on tools.

[nycphils]

Did they rank the systems?

[fish]

Anybody would be pleased to have that top 4. The rest is filled with guys that should be probably starting at #15.

[phillychuck]

Hi Fish, I always enjoy your posts, and most often agree.

I think, however, I disagree with this assessment. We are affected in our evaluation of our mid-level prospects by not having a really good idea what other systems' middle guys look like--they are all flawed, some more flawed than our guys. But, we get to see our players first-hand, so a decent #7 in our system is devalued. We see the flaws.

[gmwannabe]

list looks ok to me. i would think that Miller would be a little higher. And i still wouldn't go to sleep on Adonis. i think he is going to make it. i was hoping for this year to establish himself, but too bad he lost the chance. he is still young enough with good stuff.
gm

[andyb]

i would think that Miller would be a little higher

He was on my short list of prospects that I really wanted to see this year. I am OK with the ranking based on some major changes they were having him make to his motion. He is also sitting 93-94 these days instead of in the upper 90s where he was at times in college. He probably does not merit a higher ranking until he had shown that what he was doing can work at upper levels.

Our list in general looks better after the draft like every other organization since there have been no graduations. In a normal year Howard and Bohm would disappear from this list quickly. Now they have a shot at retaining rookie status for next season. Hard to imagine Bohm will get 130 plate appearances this year.