Phillies Prospect Lists

[Austinfan]

Hard to pick the right players when the best players go #32, #34 and #66!
It'll probably take a few more years, b/c it looks like some HS lottery picks will be the best picks in that draft.

[zambonir]

Again this seems like a "two things can be true" situation.

Was it a bad draft? Yes.

Is that a significant data point suggesting Klentak has not drafted well? No.

Even if it had been later in his tenure, it's still one draft. Which doesn't mean he's drafted spectacularly overall, but it hasn't been bad either, and results are definitely still incomplete. Especially since his first hire in that department has yet to run a draft.

Not that I'm going to argue we need to see 2-3 years of the Klentak/Barber team to evaluate Klentak, but that is largely moot because he will either lose his job or get a new contract based on the MLB team. And the MLB team probably won't win if his 2017 and 2018 drafts don't play a role.

[Austinfan]

While the 2016 draft was just bad for almost everyone, Klentak may come out OK if Moniak or Stephen turned out to be decent OFs and Romero and Irvin provide LH depth in the pen. But it's not a good draft.

2017 on the other hand, may save his job if Haseley is a solid starting OF, Howard settles into the rotation, and Seabold and/or Jones become a competent 5th starter. Brodgon has a good shot at contributing as a middle reliever, and Dohy and Warren could be shutdown LH RPs if they improve their command. The wildcard is how Ben Brown comes back from TJ surgery, 6'6 210 and coming on before he was injured, but he's a long way away.

2018 is Bohm, but he may be a good enough hitter to carry a draft if he can handle 3B - that gives you quite a lineup to finish this year and in 2021. By the time Simmons and Pipkin arrive, Klentak will either have a long-term extension or be long gone.

[andyb]

MLB.com ranks the Phillies 19th:

Every club's 2020 farm system, ranked

And a Phillies report (nothing really new) along with a Jim Callis video interview:

Phillies prospect report from Spring Training

And a Stott interview:

Q&A with Phillies prospect Bryson Stott

[andyb]

One final prospect list!!!!!

Kiley McDaniel got a late start at ESPN so here is his NL list article. He is more a fan of Moniak and Simmons than some. Donwgrades Morales though.

1. Spencer Howard, RHP, 60 FV (No. 21 in top 100)
2. Alec Bohm, 3B, 55 FV (No. 42)
3. Bryson Stott, SS, 45+ FV
4. Luis Garcia, SS, 45 FV
5. Mickey Moniak, CF, 45 FV
6. Simon Muzziotti, CF, 45 FV
7. Johan Rojas, CF, 45 FV
8. Francisco Morales, RHP, 45 FV
9. Adonis Medina, RHP, 40+ FV
10. Kendall Simmons, SS, 40+ FV

Kiley McDaniel's National League team-by-team top prospect rankings

[zambonir]

How do you pronounce Muzziotti's name anyway? Like "Simon Says" or like "Simone"?

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I watched a spring training game he was in this year and the Phillies announcer pronounced it "Simone"

[andyb]

And finally Kiley McDaniel has his organizational rankings (by surplus prospect value technically). Phillies are 22nd.

Kiley McDaniel's MLB farm system rankings for all 30 teams

[andyb]

Another random prospect ranking appeared last week:

Philadelphia Phillies Top-25 Prospects for 2020 | FantraxHQ

[Squire]

My current post-2020 Draft list:

1. Alec Bohm, 3B
2. Spencer Howard, RHP
3. Mick Abel, RHP
4. Bryson Stott, SS
5. Francisco Morales, RHP
6. Adonis Medina, RHP
7. Casey Martin, SS/CF
8. Rafael Marchan, C
9. Luis Garcia, SS
10. Kendall Simmons, INF
11. Mickey Moniak, CF
12. Damon Jones, LHP
13. Erik Miller, LHP
14. Johan Rojas, OF
15. Nick Maton. SS/2B

[zambonir]

How often does a third-rounder debut in the Top 10, even in a middling system? (Of course not having a second-rounder makes that more likely, in addition to him being rated as a second-rounder).

[California_Dreamin]

Back to baseball...I agree with Squire. Martin is precisely the toolsy, high ceiling talent that player evaluators love. My only wish is that there would have been at least 10 rounds to this draft, I was very encouraged by Barber's initial dive into the draft. I am excited to see who he can lure in starting tomorrow.

[Lucky_Beagle]

I am surprised I have not seen anyone showing tweets of people saying I plan to sign with xxx on Sunday. Surely most of the deals have been made by now, right?

[Squire]

Apparently, the word is that MLB isn't treating this the way that NFL and NBA winks about free agency stuff. They put the word out that ANY discussions prior to Sunday at 9AM if discovered would lead to sanctions. However, if you starting hearing things right at 9AM tomorrow then I guess that was BS.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Thanks for the clarification. I was thinking nothing could be announced before 9 am. I didn't remember no contact can be made between the draft and 9 am. I am sure there were talks going on during the draft about hey if you don't get drafted this round we will make an offer.

[Squire]

Was thinking the same thing...I'm sure leading up to the draft and during the draft there were those discussions. Apparently teams are going to be providing like professional power point slides and portfolios pitching their organizations to the UDFAs

[Squire]

BA updated its Top 100 and included twelve 2020 draft picks to the list.
Mick Abel who was BA's #11 draft prospect, of course, was not included
I guess being selected by the Phillies immediately devalued him.
Also the inclusion of the 2020 draftees pushed Bryson Stott out of the Top 100 so only Bohm and Howard were on there.

[andyb]

There just is so little record on Abel that I can see why he is not ranked in the top 100 now. Stott was always fringe top 100 anyway.

The question internally of whether Abel should rank ahead of Stott is also interesting. They were drafted and rated in the same general area of their respective drafts. Abel has the higher ceiling, but even less track record than a normal HS pick. Stott also played well enough to justify his draft position. Good, but not great, but did he really do anything to change our opinion on him.

For me I rank Stott 3rd at the moment. We just need a little track record on Abel. Of course this might be their end of year ranking also if we get no new information on either one of them.

[Squire]

My complaint is very specific. Abel was ranked 11th in the draft rankings two weeks ago. Zero baseball has been played by anybody in the intervening week. And the same guys who do the rankings jumped 2 guys ahead of him merely because of who drafted them. Abel's lack of record existed 2 weeks ago when they did the draft rankings.

[andyb]

That is a fair criticism of BA's process. It does not mean Abel should have been ranked though. It might also mean they should have kept the new prospects on the list below 10. All the college players have less track record than they should to be ranked also.

Probably good to have a rule for these lists to not rank players that have not played a professional game yet. Everything else is just so speculative. Fun to talk about, but really not grounded in much evidence. That 16-year-old international player can wait a year to get ranked till we know whether he can hit a curveball or not.