Phillies Prospect Lists

Philsmania 2021-02-15 18:07:16 UTC #941

Did we draft a dud in Abel or has no one really had the chance to look at him yet?

andyb 2021-02-15 18:11:45 UTC #942

From all reports out there Abel is a really good pick with a high ceiling (like number 2 starter). I think he missed some top 100s because he had not been seen much and there is no way to assess his development. Remember he is from a colder weather state (Oregon) so he really had no senior high school season either.

HS pitchers have a high rate of failure as high picks, so the lack of a ranking is all about risk and lack of seeing Abel. Reports on him from instructional league were very good though. It really does not matter if he is ranked 110th or 90th today. If he has a good year he could easily be a top 50 prospect next year.

bigegypt0417 2021-02-15 18:12:14 UTC #943

Abel has to be the highest ceiling HS pitcher since hamels...

andyb 2021-02-15 18:30:38 UTC #944

Did a little search for other prospect lists. Here is FantraxHQ:

There should be a bunch of prospect lists coming the next few weeks. Keith Law will likely be tomorrow or Wednesday. Prospectslive lists the Phillies as "coming soon". Pitcherlist has a countdown for an updated version of their site tomorrow. And MLB.com usually has their list in late February/early March.

phillychuck 2021-02-15 20:24:19 UTC #945

I still have no clue where any journalist is getting prospect rankings from given the lack of minor league competition last season. You can ask coaches, but they just know their own players. How do we know whether Stott raking in Lehigh Valley is because he's good or because our pitching stunk?

zambonir 2021-02-15 20:30:02 UTC #946

It's almost as if the prospect rankings don't mean anything and are mostly speculative opinions, for entertainment purposes only! And to sell subscriptions!

I'm sure a scout can watch video of a Bryson Stott hitting against a Medina (or a Deolis Guerra) and evaluate him in context. Harder for a journalist to do that. But the best ones still try to reach out to insiders and collate conventional wisdom. This year it is all grain of salt obviously. The same goes for the major league season, even.

andyb 2021-02-15 20:37:32 UTC #947

Prospect lists should not change much this year compared to last, but there is additional information.

Alternate site scouting
Winter ball
Instructional League
Graduations
New Draftees and international signings (where their bonus is really what gets them ranked with little additional info
Velocity reports/videos from pitchers (i.e. the Driveline crowd).

It is not much. And none of this tells me where Jamari Baylor and Starlyn Castillo should go (other than staying in the organization for another year and not getting released tells us a tiny bit). Trades change the rankings too. Clearly Yhoswar Garcia is a bum and destined to failure because he went 0-5 in the Venezuelan Winter League.....

andyb 2021-02-16 14:12:31 UTC #948

Here is the Keith Law top 20:

Not as deep as one might hope. Other lists have a supplementary section of others to note. Sounds like Stott was in the 120 range for him. He also is higher on Luis Garcia than others and putting lots of emphasis on him not being physically ready for Lakewood 2 years ago.

phillychuck 2021-02-16 15:03:58 UTC #949

Law's write ups on the top 20 are much more positive than I would have thought. We need about 1/3 of those guys to reach their potential in the next year or two and we'll be OK. We will also be playing 3 or 4 shortstops if that happens.

andyb 2021-02-16 15:33:57 UTC #950

The defensive rating for Stott at SS (55-60) was better than others have said. If true he is more likely to stay at SS and remember he could move quickly (as in be ready by the end of the year after starting at Reading).

One can never have enough SS as they can play everywhere.

bigegypt0417 2021-02-16 17:45:47 UTC #951

The player i'm most interested to follow this year is Kendall Simmons...i'm a sucker for high ceiling guys with equally low floors...

andyb 2021-02-17 14:43:01 UTC #952

Fangraphs top 100 (really top 133). Howard 33, Abel 95.

They are also doing their prospect week so lots of other general articles being put up.

andyb 2021-02-17 18:18:12 UTC #953

A prospect list that goes as far down as Austin Listi:

bigegypt0417 2021-02-17 19:29:07 UTC #954

Obviously they would need alot to go right but the phillies have some high upside guys that could push them up the list of teams this season....although the risk is high.

German41 2021-02-18 11:32:50 UTC #955

We need two of Stott, Luis Garcia, Simmons and Martin to become real, above average major leaguers and need the same from both Rojas and Yoswar Garcia (would be great if one of those two turns into a Soto or Acuna).

fish 2021-02-18 15:40:14 UTC #956

I’d settle for “real above average prospects “ with one or two of the as good big leaguers. Prospect value is still trade value

andyb 2021-02-18 16:19:48 UTC #957

This prospect ranking goes off the board in a bunch of places. I am excited to see Jamari Baylor, but 7th? I think he has legit tools, but the consensus also was that he was picked a bit too high, not accounting for risk adequately. And conversely Casey Martin down at 29. I think Martin likely has better tools (more power, similar speed), and he actually has some history of performance in a good college league.

andyb 2021-02-18 16:26:40 UTC #958

One guy I think is underrated in most of these lists is Dominic Pipkin. He survived Lakewood at age 19 and is reportedly adding a bit to his fastball over the past 18 months. He could come out this year at age 21 and really dominate Jersey Shore (of course it helps to be in a pitcher's park).

Hitters who thought they got through Lakewood have the reverse luck of course. No chance to show their power until Reading. Jhailyn Ortiz finally gets to hit in a good HR park.

bigegypt0417 2021-02-18 18:04:29 UTC #959

It was interesting to see Law's take on Ortiz...he seems to still think the tools may be there.

Austinfan 2021-02-19 01:22:26 UTC #960

If Ortiz needs a good HR park, he was a big mistake.