Phillies Prospect Lists

[andyb]

Ed Wade was not a great GM, but he actually presided over a decent farm system. Amaro let it go downhill.

The first #1 picks under Wade starting in 1998: Burrell, Myers, Utley, Floyd, Hamels

After that we started giving up more picks and drafting late, but the one good thing Ed Wade did was preside over decent drafts. He largely got us back into Latin America too. Trades and player valuation were weak points of course.

[schillingfan]

Ed Wade was not a great GM, but he actually presided over a decent farm system. Amaro let it go downhill.

The first #1 picks under Wade starting in 1998: Burrell, Myers, Utley, Floyd, Hamels

After that we started giving up more picks and drafting late, but the one good thing Ed Wade did was preside over decent drafts. He largely got us back into Latin America too. Trades and player valuation were weak points of course.

Wade’s fear of trading prospects was good.it kept all our prospects needed for 2008 through 2012. He also benefited from Arbuckle who unfortunately left when Amaro got the GM job. We haven’t had anyone as good as Arbuckle since.

[allentown]

I agree. Gillick may have given a push over the top at the trade deadline or may have largely lucked into a good situation (well not really lucked into, he doubtlessly analyzed the Phillies level of talent and saw an organization posed to take the next step), but 2008 is largely down to Arbuckle and Wade, Not having another championship is down to ownership not allowing RAJ to go over budget for just one year to pair Lee and Halliday in their prime, a terribly wasteful 'savings' of $9 million, which cost the team way more in the long run. It's difficult to judge the inherent value of GMs who work for stupid, short-sighted, cheap owners. I thought back I the day that Thomas could have been a good GM for us. Of course so could have Dallas Green, but Giles was just a terrible owner who sacked them both and destroyed revenue by 'saving' money on salaries and young talent. I liked Ruly Carpenter's approach as an owner, but in the end, his determination to fight the players ability to increase salaries led to his disillusionment and sale of the team to the penurious Giles who could be counted upon to help the commissioner fight salary increases. Having such a $-short managing partner set the Phillies back decades and the Giles influence persisted through the Monty years.

[schooldoc]

Keith Law's top 100 prospects list comes out tomorrow in The Athletic.

[bigegypt0417]

he has Howard at 22 and Bohm at 38

As usual...his list is very different than others.

[andyb]

And Fangraphs finally with their list:

Top 39 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies

[allentown]

Grullon unable to make top 39?

[andyb]

After the top 20 it really does not matter that much. Grullon really does not have a great profile for more than a backup role (if he picks up framing). They also skipped Seabold who belongs in the top 40 somewhere. Every list is different. And every single evaluator will miss some people near the back of the list if they have to do this for all 30 organizations.

[bigegypt0417]

So is it your opinion that his offensive production at AAA doesn't translate to the majors?

[andyb]

Predicting production is not a simple age/level equation. Grullon is helped by the magic baseballs in AAA which make his power first profile more important. He increased his walk rate, but that could be a product of gun shy pitchers as much as Grullon learning the strike zone better. I think scouts see a bat that will be more of a 230/290/420 major league profile. As for defense, bulky catchers often do not profile well defensively in the future (like Cameron Rupp).

I would have ranked Grullon higher, probably in the 30 range. Proximity and the certainty of being a decent backup catcher are worth something. Kind of like we will probably discuss Nick Maton in the middle infield in the near future. But I agree the profile is just not that great as a starter and once you get beyond the top 20 one is probably splitting hairs on these rankings anywhere.

To pose a flippant question to you - do you rely only on AAA stats to make your judgments? The point here is that everything matters and one cannot evaluate every prospect the same way without looking at their complete profile and skillset.

[bigegypt0417]

To pose a flippant question to you - do you rely only on AAA stats to make your judgments? The point here is that everything matters and one cannot evaluate every prospect the same way without looking at their complete profile and skillset.

I mean...the magic baseball does seem like a good part of a complete profile but it seems yoyu do alot to dismiss a bunch of things about Grullon that seem similar to a caertain catcher with the Marlins who you seem to like.

Grullon at 24 has had at least 2 solid AAA seasons and to say that profiles to a back-up catcher but Alfaro is a ML catcher?

I'm not sure how those numbers and the profile doesn't translate to a ML catcher...even if there is a drop-off from AAA to the majors.

Even if he hits in the 240's and has a an OPS in the 700's he's essentially an average ML catcher.

[andyb]

Even if he hits in the 240's and has a an OPS in the 700's he's essentially an average ML catcher.

Not if the OBP falls below 300 and the defensive tools regress because of his body.

And there is literally zero comparison with Alfaro. Alfaro is a great athlete, not an inferior one. His tools (throwing, power, speed) are all superior to Grullon and he became a decent framer. This is why he profiles as a guy who can still improve and scouts doubt Grullon will improve that much. He may not because of the strike zone judgement, but that also fits within his profile as a guy who might be really good, but if he isn't can still be a regular ML starting catcher because of his physical tools.

[nycphils]

To put Fangraph’s list in context of our division, here are the number of projected average everyday regulars on the lists in our division:

Braves - 6 prospects

Mets - 3 prospects

Marlins - 7 prospects

Nats - 2 prospects

Phillies - 2 prospects

[bigegypt0417]

so basically if everything about Grullon goes wrong then your assessment of him is correct?

that makes sense.

I do like you picked 3 random tools to illustrate your point.

[andyb]

I could have picked most of his tools. Are you even reading the scouting reports? I am just echoing the consensus assessments. And visually he is a heavy guy that does not move particularly well.

I suspect you are just being argumentative rather than trying to make a substantive argument that he is a good prospect. Why, other than home runs (which spiked in AAA when he was there and are always easy to hit in Reading) do you think he is a good prospect. Even the more positive assessments consider him a backup catcher projection (which I do too).

Instead of being argumentative, how about trying to at least make an actual argument in favor of him being more than a backup. Pick any random tools you want.

[allentown]

It's been a long time since I thought he could be more than a back-up, but a back-up MLB catcher ought to be good for at least position 30 given the not very tough competition once you get out of the top 3-8 on this list.

[bigegypt0417]

I'm not being argumentative...I'm just stating that your assumption is based not on his level of production but the idea he'll fall off across the board and none of that production carries over.

If that's your opinion then so be it but if he even does fall off he's a ML catcher.

[andyb]

It is also based on his high strikeout rate and relatively low batting averages at most of his levels. 29% K rate last year. That was a warning sign that Cameron Rupp's batspeed was not good enough as well.

The power is nice, but as I said, everybody hit for power in AAA last year. HRs increased by almost 60% in AAA last year. If Grullon only hit 15 HRs in AAA would we consider that special? His AAA performance was decent, but by no means great (and his throwing was the best part of his fielding - the rest needs work).

You have also not answered my questions about his tools. He is a heavy, slow guy. Do you consider him the rare exception that gets better at the major league level in spite of his tools and why? He could be more than a backup catcher, but it sure does not look like that from both his "production" and his scouting report/tools.

[Austinfan]

"Framing" will probably be obsolete in two years.

[nycphils]

Framing" will probably be obsolete in two years.

Very true.