Phillies Prospect Lists

[zambonir]

I don't think it will be quite that fast. In two years they might agree to a couple of years of trial/testing, with full-time usage from there. If it does go on a faster track that's not great news for the Phillies' Realmuto extension either, because he's not going to get paid less on a hypothetical.

[andyb]

Matt Winkelman starting his top 50 from the bottom:

2020 Top 50 Phillies Prospects: 41-50

[bigegypt0417]

Josh Stephen at 41 seems....low?

[andyb]

Josh Stephen at 41 seems....low?

That is a tools based ranking and the write-up explains why. He was bumped to Reading as a reserve when he was not really ready (taking Pujols' spot) because others needed playing time elsewhere. And while he hit fairly well, it is a LF-only defensive profile without a lot of power.

I think Matt errs towards the side of ceiling in his rankings. If a player profiles as a backup if everything clicks then the ranking is lower since backups by definition can be replaced pretty easily by minor league free agents. It is a matter of opinion. Someone with more of a performance-based philosophy could have Stephen 10-15 slots higher, though the lack of defense would limit him in any ranking.

[phillychuck]

Stephen was indeed bumped to Reading as a reserve, but he hit well there. He went from being forgotten about to at least on the radar a bit. Too bad he doesn't still play CF as he did when he and Moniak were drafted. He'd better get a lot stronger or move his OBP and AVG up substantially if he's going to make a career in LF.

[andyb]

Getting back to that 41-50 list, the guy I am probably most intrigued with is DJ Jefferson. He seems to be the steal of the draft (technically undrafted). An athletic HS pitcher already in the low 90s that at one point was looking at closer to a million dollar bonus if those 3rd round projections held. He then signs with the Phillies for $125K or less because those are the rules, giving up a USC commitment.

He seems the type of pitcher that we have given overslot bonuses to in the past, but we got him for next to nothing and he was not awful in his brief GCL appearances. I am not sure he is a great prospect, but I definitely want to see more.

[Austinfan]

The one key change to me has been the shift from toolsy players to college players at the top of the draft, with lots of toolsy players later, from bonus overpays to long-shot HS and LA players.

Toolsy guys are long-shots in any case, so better to buy cheap in volume, then invest in development.

Phillies may have had one of the worst development staffs for decades, too many baseball guys with ties with the organization instead of guys who studied the game and how to teach skills. The last few years it seems they're bringing in coaches who understand how to use sophisticated video tools to break down pitching and swing mechanics and teach young players how to optimize their skills - we'll see if it works, but at least they're out of the stone age.

[andyb]

MLB.com Pipeline top 30 list coming Tuesday. Keith Law also rolling out his divisional articles. NL East should be Saturday or Monday (he is doing the AL first and not sure he will release stuff over the weekend).

Here are the new 2020 Top 30 Prospects lists

[schooldoc]

Law's NL East report is out next Tuesday.

[andyb]

Gelb on Rafael Marchan this morning:

Rafael Marchan catches a spring break and is learning,...

[andyb]

A little preview of the Keith Law list on this podcast. He is on around the 24 minute mark:

The Athletic’s Keith Law talks Phillies prospects and farm system

[Squire]

New MLBPipeline Top 30 is out:

Prospect Rankings

[phillychuck]

Good list.

De Los Santos too high, Moniak a slot or two too low, Seabold too low, Ortiz too high, Brito too high at 30, Dohy too low. Pretty good otherwise.

I'd be trying to deal De Los Santos if other teams value him as much as the scouting services.

[flyers19rw]

Not a big KLaw fan here but its hard to argue with his assessment of the farm. In the past there have been questionable selections which most of us understand to be true. The real grind here is the lack of development that draftees/signees have mad in the system. Perhaps some have been rushed but across the board, be it pitchers or position players, the lack of development really stands out as a problem.

[andyb]

Did not see these posted this week. Howard 21 and Bohm 42 on ESPN. As usual, Law's list is a bit different. He really likes Muzziotti at 6 and Guzman at 10. Less of a fan of Moniak (11) and Maton (18) than others. No mention of Johan Rojas even in the others of note section which seems odd for someone in other top 10s (and usually within the top 15 of most lists).

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel top 100:

Kiley McDaniel's top 100 prospects for 2020

Keith Law Phillies list:

Keith Law's prospect rankings: Philadelphia Phillies

[Austinfan]

I don't think any of the lists matter this year.

Looking over the Phillies minor leagues, they seem to have plenty of talent, the problem last year was more coaching and development. Outside of D Jones and Stephens, who took a step up over their projected talent?

The commitment to Driveline, the coaching changeover at all levels are a good sign.
But we need to see some results, to see some talented players make a big jump (Garcia, Simmons, Baylor, Rojas, Morales), to see some diamonds in the rough developed.

Development is key b/c the drafting/signing philosophy seems to have inverted, instead of high tools early and safe later, now it's safe early (Haseley, Bohm, Stott) and high tools/risk later. That means more players with upside but low floors that need a top development staff to reach their potential.

One thing I'd do if I were the FO is feed my minor leaguers - the low salaries means you have kids eating cheap fast food - I'd cater three meals a day for every minor league team and have a roving nutritionist teaching them how to cook and eat healthy. It would probably cost less than one blown LA signing a year to do this - and it doesn't count against any spending caps.

[allentown]

I don't agree that the Phillies farm has a lot of talent. They have very little high-level and not a lot of mid-level talent. They have a ton of lower-level (35 and 40-rating) talent, which thus far they have done not at all well developing. I think they change their development/coaching approach way too frequently and are now trying to turn guys they drafted as the ideal round pegs (like Moniak, who was deemed a great contact hitter by Gillick and company, but now the team is all about launch angle, although we didn't see many HRs last season). Same with pitching and trying to make everyone a high FB pitcher last season. Such abrupt changes in how players are supposed to practice their art is unlikely to work. It takes consistency. It also talks drafting and signing amateurs who have within their skill set what is required to become the sort of hitter and pitcher the Phillies have now decided they want.

A certain amount of safety in the first rounder is not a bad thing IMHO. We had too many long-shot flops as first rounders over the years. We did abominably with first round H.S. position players in the first round. If these guys are naturally riskier, they are totally unacceptably risky in the first round for a team that seems not very able at scouting H.S. position players and totally inept at developing them. If you draft in the first half of the first round, you have to get an average major leaguer out of at least half of your picks, if you wish to succeed. When the Phillies had success and were building up to 2008, they had an excellent success rate on their first rounders.

[bigegypt0417]

I think the issue is the phillies have a good amount of mid level talent with only a small number of above average talent. I've always like Matt Winkleman's list and it seems we have alot of fringe ML level talent with very little that could move the needle.

[zambonir]

I believe the Phillies already made all their minor league diet/nutrition changes and budget increases. That came from Kapler (who did it when he was in development for LA) but I'm sure it stays.

[Austinfan]

Good, because all these changes add up, it may take a few years, but it's easy to forget how much of a good ole boy organization the Phillies have been until recently.