Phillies Prospect Lists

[zambonir]

Well, I'm slightly more optimistic, I don't think this team only has 1-2 years to compete. But it could break that way worst-case, either because a few key guys don't work out or because they trade away some future and then don't get the ring.

For this to be a season that gets Klentak (and MacPhail, I'd hope) fired it would have to be as bad as last year and if that's the case at least they'll be able to re-stock the farm a bit as sellers.

[bkeich]

Yes, but unfortunately it seems more likely that we are once again a .500-.520 team that is a neutral at the trade deadline and neither buy nor sell. Adding that to a terrible farm system and you have a recipe for the START of a rebuild.

We cashed in our rebuild last offseason, traded away our best prospects from the previous offseason (although they all looked like the shine was off them) and got some “soon to be paid” players.

Now we have 3 above average players (Harper, Nola and Realmuto) who are in their prime and a bunch of OK prices around them, a below average pitching staff and only really one young player to be excited about (Kingery, who frankly, may only be average) and 2 guys in the minors and almost nothing behind them. I am not even sure we are a .500 team in 2-3 years.

This might go down as the worst 7 year rebuild ever. We built from 5th place to 4th In a 5 team division.

I am guessing a Klentak will hold on to his job one more offseason, he did after all sign Harper and acquired 4 All Stars in one offseason, but the results on the field have been uninspiring. It really isn’t clear what the problem is (poor drafting, horrendous international recruiting, bad injury luck)?

[Philsmania]

I am in the camp that sees only a two year window of opportunity. We have a bad farm system and a mediocre ML team, exactly where we were in the early '90's. However, Klentak doesn't have Lee Thomas's cleverness and craftiness to wheel and deal his way to a joyride season.

[mdougherty12]

I just noticed that Kiley McDaniel left Fangraphs again and started writing for ESPN.

[Squire]

age of the core is still pretty good

Haseley 23
Kingery 25
Seranthony 25
Hoskins 26
Nola 26
Harper 27
Realmuto 28
Wheeler 29
Segura 29

And as pessimistic as I can be I think our farm is better than it showed last year and am looking for some bounce backs and some emergers.

[zambonir]

The problem is if we don't make the playoffs that means Haseley, Kingery and Hoskins likely aren't the core of anything (and they all strike me as complementary players to begin with, Rhys included - even assuming he bounces back he's not an elite player among leaguewide 1B, just a very good one). And Segura may be done (again, in the scenario where it's a bad team). Though there's still Bohm and Howard obviously.

I don't think Klentak can survive another non-playoff season now that he's lost power and didn't get to pick the manager. And if we are really falling out of the playoffs they will have to unload Didi and Arrieta (if he's not hurt) at the deadline, and consider moving on from McCutchen and Segura in the off-season if not before, not try to make one more run with them in 2021. Another year of being on the fence in July would definitely be bad.

That leaves the Realmuto question. If he's signed, he's not going anywhere. If he's not, there has to be a trade.

All worst-case stuff (and a topic for another thread) but I gather PECOTA projection is 77 wins. So even if that's 10 games off it might not be enough.

[andyb]

That was a few weeks ago. Musical chairs with Keith Law going to the Athletic.

[bigegypt0417]

And as pessimistic as I can be I think our farm is better than it showed last year and am looking for some bounce backs and some emergers.

This is exactly where I am...I am going to give the minors this season to show some improvement because last year was a disaster in terms of players taking steps backwards.

If we are still having this conversation 10 months from now then I will be in panic mode.

[Austinfan]

I'm interested in seeing if the coaching changes at both the major and minor league level pay off.
It seemed the ML pitchers collectively took a step backward last year.

And they've been making major changes at the minor league level for 2-3 years, but you'd expect a lag before a critical mass was reached and had an impact.

The prospects trades really aren't a big deal, Alfaro, Crawford haven't shown enough to think they'll ever contribute as much as Realmuto and Segura, Sanchez maybe, but the same with Howard. The real problem is they haven't drafted/Int'l signed difference makers for an entire decade outside of Nola.

So the real hope is that they can improve the development process, turn players like Eflin, Pivetta, Velasquez into middle of the rotation starters, Howard, Seabold, Medina etc., develop some RPs and turn players like Stott, Simmons, Baylor, Moniak, et al into ML starters. You don't have to hit on the majority, but you do have to hit on more than one a year.

[Squire]

Honestly don't know if this is an updated list or not but BA advertised the expansion of the Team Prospect lists to 30 today so here goes:

1. Spencer Howard, RHP
2. Alec Bohm, 3B
3. Bryson Stott, SS
4. Francisco Morales, RHP
5. Adonis Medina, RHP
6. Rafael Marchan, C
7. Luis Garcia, SS
8. Enyel De Los Santos, RHP
9. Mickey Moniak, CF
10. Nick Maton, SS
11. Johan Rojas, CF
12. Simon Muzziotti, CF
13. Erik Miller, LHP
14. Andrick Nava, C
15. Jojo Romero, LHP
16. Deivy Grullon, C
17. Christopher Sanchez, LHP
18. Damon Jones, LHP
19. Jamari Baylor, SS
20. Addison Russ, RHP
21. Kendall Simmons, 3B
22. Logan O'Hoppe, C
23. Ethan Lindow, LHP
24. Connor Brogdon, RHP
25. Mauricio Llovera, RHP
26. Abraham Gutierrez, C
27. Cole Irvin, LHP
28. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF
29. Jonathan Guzman, SS
30. Connor Seabold, RHP

[andyb]

I think they do this when their prospect book comes out. Pretty aggressive Andrick Nava ranking. He had a really good year at GCL and seems to have a great hit tool. But he is also a little undersized with defensive questions like any 17-year-old.

The catcher pipeline seems pretty deep with Marchan and O'Hoppe which might make think that going catcher in the draft (which is where that last mock we saw landed) is not the priority. None of these catchers are especially close, but we might not need a starter for 4 or 5 years if we resign Realmuto.

[fish]

I'm not super high on Connor Seabold, but 30? I'd trade half the guys on that list for him.

[andyb]

He is kind of around where Damon Jones is for me. Probably 15-20. I do think his stuff ticked up a bit when he got healthy. I just think it is still 4th/5th starter type stuff. He is certainly useful to have around, like a right-handed Cole Irvin.

They also did not rank any of the high ceiling Latin American arms from the past couple of years like Starlyn Castillo. Victor Vargas might belong. Dominic Pipkin too. We forget he was challenged with an aggressive promotion even though his command was not really ready (his stuff was).

Also I probably am ready to push De Los Santos down the list. He regressed last year and he seems to be getting a pass from previous year's rankings.

We should get a few more lists in the next 10 days. Fangraphs has been promising it for a couple of weeks but got sidetracked by their prospect week and one of their team leaving to ESPN. And Keith Law is rolling out his lists on the Athletic next week starting the 24th I believe. Matt Winkelman has promised his list too.

[nycphils]

The commentary of the BA guys on their podcast when the Top 10 came out was essentially that after the first three guys, there is not that much difference between the 4-10 with many of the next 10-15 names. Unfortunately they were also clear that they did not mean that in a good way...rather that from #4 on they see no real impact players or even regulars, that any of them would do well to be reserves/pen arms. Not great.

[bigegypt0417]

The commentary of the BA guys on their podcast when the Top 10 came out was essentially that after the first three guys, there is not that much difference between the 4-10 with many of the next 10-15 names. Unfortunately they were also clear that they did not mean that in a good way...rather that from #4 on they see no real impact players or even regulars, that any of them would do well to be reserves/pen arms. Not great.

So as much as I think there is a good reason to be down on this system I also think that statement is fairly silly on their part. As I said recently, this is going to be an important year for some guys on that list.

[Austinfan]

When I look back on previous lists, what usually happens is a number of guys jump up, then the next season you hear glowing praise for prospects that were written off a year or two before.

Conversely, "can't miss" guys, especially toolsy guys like Alfaro, dominate the top of the list then fall short. Still waiting for Thompson, Cozens et al.

It's not exactly an exact science.

There's only a couple "real" prospects at any time, players so good you know they'll make it like Nola.
This year it's Bohm and Howard, and even with Howard, durability is a question until he throws 200 IP.

That's why I think luck and development are the keys unless you're devoid of any reasonable talent, prospects have to stay healthy (especially pitchers) and the organization has to be able to help them adjust as they rise through the system (which I think has been a problem for a long time).

[andyb]

Alfaro is a starting major league catcher. That is not exactly a miss.

Of course prospects rise and fall. That doesn't mean the system isn't below average though. Prospects can be evaluated on tools and performance and their odds of making it can be quantified. Then ranked. It is the same for every organization.

[zambonir]

I mean, did the BA guys really completely write off #4-10? Even if they did, unfortunately it's not that crazily negative. Morales is a likely reliever (albeit possibly high-leverage), Medina's stock is down (and also possibly a reliever). De Los Santos shouldn't be in the Top 10 and Moniak still doesn't look like a surefire major league starter. You hope Garcia is actually a future SS but could just be a utility guy. Marchan, could be legit, a back-up, or never really make it, much like Grullon. If any of the above do as well as Crawford or Alfaro (or Haseley) that would actually be success. Maybe one or more will be better. Time will tell.

[allentown]

Conversely, "can't miss" guys, especially toolsy guys like Alfaro, dominate the top of the list then fall short. Still waiting for Thompson, Cozens et al.

It's not exactly an exact science.

There's only a couple "real" prospects at any time, players so good you know they'll make it like Nola.
This year it's Bohm and Howard, and even with Howard, durability is a question until he throws 200 IP.

Cozens was never a can't miss guy. I don't recall BA ever having any great love for him. This board fell I love with him after his one great Reading season, then he fizzled at Allentown. There was something weird about that Reading season with Cozens and Hoskins both having great power years. I hope Hoskins recovers this season after his bad second half last season.

I think you put too much emphasis on 200 IP. The vast majority of MLB starting pitchers do not log 200 IP a season any more. With Howard it is going to have to be quality rather than quantity for a while. Hamels, who also lost a lot of minor league IP didn't hit 200 IP a season until his third year in Philly. We don't know what Thompson might have become. He had injury issues. He did make it to MLB. With pitchers, taking your talent to success in MLB is at least as much about staying healthy as it is about continuing to improve your skills.

"There's only a couple 'real' prospects' at any time." -- For some reason you have been very heavily into defending a Phillies farm system which is as obviously below par as BA and other neutral observers say it is.

[Austinfan]

It's not a great farm system, but it's not where it was under Ed Wade either.

The last few years they've produced Nola, Kingery, Hoskins, Haseley, SD, Morgan, Sanchez. Neris, Knapp, Quinn, Suarez.
They might have Bohm, Howard, Seabold, Jones, Brogdon and E Garcia up this season.

It's not where it should be, but it's not the disaster area that meant when the run was over, there was little in the cupboard. They wanted two years too long for the fire sale, but fortunately were able to land Eflin, Velasquez, Pivetta, Arano, but not enough to lead a complete rebuild.

The key is they need much better coaching in the minors, and hopefully the changes they've made the last couple years will start to bear fruit. You can't turn every sow's ear into a silk purse, but if you can coach up a couple extra players a year into real prospects, that adds a lot of organizational depth over time.