Phillies Prospect Lists

[andyb]

Of course, Alfaro is all BABIP as we

But he has a multi-year history of high BABIP and high exit velocity. Grullon is this year only.

[andyb]

A numeric FV value ranking from Fangraphs has our system 20th overall now. One saving grace is we have a lot of 35+ FV prospects (13 of our 34 that make their ranking) so there is some potential for improvement.

Pre-Draft Farm System Rankings

[julio]

A numeric FV value ranking from Fangraphs has our system 20th overall now. One saving grace is we have a lot of 35+ FV prospects (13 of our 34 that make their ranking) so there is some potential for improvement.

Pre-Draft Farm System Rankings

Define your terms. What is an "FV"? Your post doesn't tell me, and neither does the linked article.

[andyb]

Fangraphs assigns a FV (future value) to each prospect which is their projection of how good he can be based on tool and perfomance. It is on the 20-80 scale. 50 being major league regular/average, but if you notice in the rankings this is not their ceiling, it is the mid-line projection.

Then each FV is assigned a dollar figure in terms of the value of a X FV prospect.

If you click on the "Craig Edwards values" link you get an explanation of how they turn rankings into dollar values. Vlad Jr. is number 1 at $112 million. The system had Sixto valued at $53 million, Medina at $40 million, and Bohm at $25 million (note they just had Bohm ranked after Medina before the season. It is possible they have changed that).

Then they show the value of draft slots that theoretically will be added to the system. The number one pick has an average value of $45 million. Our number one is valued at $19 million. This is based on the expected WAR for each draft slot and the value of WAR. Plus some complicated math.

Obviously it is a numeric-heavy system crafted on top of subjective player rankings (i.e. the FV designations). But at least they are transparent about how they do it.

[julio]

Thanks for that, andyb!

Now all I need to do is actually digest all that material about how they generate dollar values - and of course it's all dependent on the credibility of their FV projection. I would define credibility as measured by as demonstrated predictive value over time - e.g., do they get it right? When they miss, how badly do they miss (in standard deviations, I would think)? Have they been doing this long enough for third parties to evaluate whether their projections hold up over time?

[andyb]

And to that I really have no idea how good they are. It would be really interesting to see all these prospect rankings over time. You really need to look at rankings at least 10-15 years ago to see how good they are. And I am guessing that it was different people who did the rankings then at virtually all the web sites (BA, BP, FG, MLB, etc.).

That means it is not a question that really can ever be answered, though you could assess them year to year.

[julio]

That means it is not a question that really can ever be answered,

Finest kind, at least from the perspective of those doing the projections!

[Squire]

My pre-draft Phillies Top 10

1. Alec Bohm
2. Spencer Howard
3. Adam Haseley
4. Enyel De Los Santos
5. Adonis Medina
6. Simon Muzziotti
7. Deivi Grullon
8. Cole Irvin
9. Luis Garcia
10. David Parkinson

11-15 would be Moniak, Morales, Maton, Marchan and Ortiz

[Lawman]

At what point do you take them off the prospect list? I mean, De Los Santos is in the majors now, is he still a prospect?

[Austinfan]

I think once they've hit the rookie minimum they're no longer prospects.

[phillychuck]

I think you take them off when they aren't doing the NE Extension shuttle anymore. I think De Los Santos still has rookie status; that could be a dividing line.

[julio]

At what point do you take them off the prospect list? I mean, De Los Santos is in the majors now, is he still a prospect?

Actually, De Los Santos is on optional assignment to AAA; he was optioned again on the 28th. I think that answers part of the question.

[bkeich]

I think you take them off when they aren't doing the NE Extension shuttle anymore. I think De Los Santos still has rookie status; that could be a dividing line.

Rookie Minimum make more sense to me. The simple fact is that any reliever will be on the Turnpike Express as long as they have options and are not extremely dominant. I am surprised Dominguez hasnt been doing it also, but he is clearly a guy that Kapler (and I) think could be "special" if things go right. Virtually every other reliever with options gets to visit Iron Pigs stadium (at least on paper) every once in awhile.

[LoneStarPhan]

Dominguez is not being bounced back and forth because he is one of the most reliable relievers left on the active roster. Had all the veterans with no options been active, it is much more likely that Dominguez would have ended up in the shuffle between AAA and the ML roster, although I do think they really like him in the pen and would likely want to keep him with the big league club.

With six relievers on the IL, several of the young relievers are going to get ML innings. If nothing else, the Phillies get a better evaluation of the potential value in the future.

[Austinfan]

And it helps the kids' development to get a taste of ML hitting, and understand some of the things the coaches are trying to teach them, like what might work against AAA hitters can end up 400' away in the Show.

[schooldoc]

Howard's dad posted this afternoon on Phuture Phillies that Spencer "feels fine" and that the Phils are being very cautious with him which they appreciate. He said Spencer is throwing bullpens and soon will face live batters.

Presumably if there's any thought of moving him at the deadline....or more accurately another team wanting to acquire him....he'll have to make some appearances fairly soon in order to prove his health. That's not a reason to rush him back, but I think something to be aware of. If no setbacks occur, it sounds like he is on track to do that.

[Austinfan]

Why would they even think about moving Howard?
Sell low?

This team is going to need pitching in the near future, as Arrieta's deal expires and a number of veteran RPs leave, this is not the time when you'd consider moving pitching prospects.

The team's core is in their middle to late 20s, you certainly don't want to strip the farm system to make one or two runs.

[schooldoc]

I'll just say that I think the team who acquires Madison Bumgarner will pay a price in prospects equal to or higher than the value of Spencer Howard. I'm not sure I would, nor am I sure the Phillies would. But SF will ask that much and I think they'll get it, from somebody.

The reality is, Spencer Howard just cracked the BA top 100 and is now hurt. The Giants absolutely will get at least one top 100 prospect for MadBum.

[andyb]

Updated top 124 from Fangraphs also has a top 39 for the Phillies (though probably not meant as a ranking because it is a database with broad categories). Gessner clocks in at #39! Which is of course a placeholder.

Top 124
Bohm - 57
Howard - 58
Medina - 75

Our 4-6 are Garcia, Haseley , then Stott.
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list?sort=-1,-1&pageitems=100&pagenum=0&type=0&team=phi

And the 1-liner on Gessner: "Maxed-out frame, smart kid, works 92-95, has advanced feel and below average slider/changeup." The video I saw on him was more 90-92, so maybe he has picked up a bit even though he is supposedly maxed out.

[bigegypt0417]

I cant remember the last time the phillies had 3 prospects on BA's hot list...

Ortiz-9
Bohm-11
Moniak-16