Phillies Prospect Lists

[andyb]

Baseball America with their first top 100 update of the season:

-68 Bohm (down from 59 though there have been some graduations since preseason also)
-79 Howard
-82 Garcia
-99 Medina

[fish]

My comment was much more about Jones than Gowdy. 4 starts at High A from a 24-year-old that we know does not have better than average stuff is not enough to vault him ahead of a top choice like Gowdy

Jones is a big strong lefty that sits 92-94 and touches 96. His secondaries aren’t better than average, but I’d say a lefty with that kind of fastball and pretty good control merits more consideration.

[kmc1019]

The real pain of the Randolph-Moniak-Haseley picks will occur whenever a player that the Phillies passed on is promoted to or succeeds in the big leagues while the Phillies draftee continues to tread water or struggle in the minors. Yesterday was one of those days as the Reds' Nick Senzel (passed on in favor of Moniak) hit two home runs in his 4th major league game after several years of consistently strong showing in the minors.

Granted, Senzel is a college draftee and Moniak a high-schooler, but the difference is that Senzel has demonstrated a strong hit tool with high OBP and increasing power in his minor league body of work whereas Moniak has a 2-month hot streak at High-A ball and pretty much nothing else of which to speak.

[teabag259]

The hard truth is that our system is in the bottom 1/3 of baseball. We are essentially bereft of impact bats.

[zambonir]

There's always a what-might-have been draftee. I'd say the pain of having not one sure thing in three years is greater!

[nycphils]

There's always a what-might-have been draftee. I'd say the pain of having not one sure thing in three years is greater!

This is my complaint...I get missing on picks, bypassing someone who does better...what is amazing is that we have 4 #1 picks in a row (including a 1.1.) and none of them are very good bets to become above average regulars. Perhaps Bohm is on that track now, but I don’t think you can say that yet given his age and having just now reached a level that is even remotely appropriate.

[Philsmania]

The hard truth is that our system is in the bottom 1/3 of baseball. We are essentially bereft of impact bats.

The last Phillies' rebuild (post-'96) was successful because of the Phillies scouting and development. If the current rebuild (post-'14) succeeds it will be despite the Phillies' scouting and development. Jordan walked the plank after last season. If the current batch of prospects don't improve under the new development guy, it may be time for Almaraz to walk the plank. I think it may be a fair question whether Almaraz has really drafted better than Wolever when he had comparable draft position.

[kmc1019]

Another painful debut from 2017 draft this week, ironically against the Phillies:

At #8, Phillies passed on college hitting machine Heston Kiura in favor of Adam Haseley. They are basically the same age, Haseley being a few months older.

Kiura has been called up by the Brewers and will see his first action against the Phillies.

Minor league stats comparison (current year):
Hiura at AAA 408/698/1106
Haseley at AA: 339/376/716

Career (3 seasons):
Hiura 379/537/916
Haseley 357/418/775

[allentown]

I have no doubt that our scouts/upper-level execs are below average in assessing amateur position players. I believe that when the guys your baseball people totally fall in love with are lacking, that you have a serious problem. Do they look for the wrong things? We too often seem to give the big bonus to guys with one tool. Often that tool is the suspect tool of batting practice power or running speed.

[Squire]

I don't think its power or speed. I mean Randolph, Moniak and Haseley were all premium "hit tool" guys and not just by our guys...by BA, and Law and Callils/Mayo, etc. Maybe its development or whatever. But I think we're also at the point where we ought to know what we are good at developing and what we are not good at developing and start drafting to our strengths to get some value in the system.

[zambonir]

It's just hard to know who really pulls the trigger and what criteria they use, especially given all the turnover the past five years. At this point you would think Klentak has formulas and decision trees, even if at crunch time, he still has to take anecdotal opinions and make the call. But Gillick (and the old scouting apparatus in general) still seemed very involved in the Moniak pick. And obviously Klentak has stuck with Almaraz.

I wish when we got gossip about people going to watch the current potential draftees that we knew who was actually doing the watching. I mean, Mackanin and Gillick and Charlie are still among that group, in between the GMs and Almaraz and the actual scouts.

[bigegypt0417]

Haseley makes the hotlist

6

[Austinfan]

It would be funny if Haseley and Moniak take it up another notch in June, and even funnier if Randolph becomes a power hitter with good contact.
Or it ain't over until it's over.
Grullon is a good example, who thought he'd go to Lehigh and take a big jump over hitter friendly Reading?
At 20-21 at Clearwater, he looked like a backup catcher at best, and that was a stretch.

On the other hand, I think we can safely say that Cozens is a lost cause. Same with Walding.
Generally, late bloomers show something you can hang your hat on by 25-26.

Then there's Altherr, who's probably the biggest disappointment, looked like he was rounding into a .750.-.800 OPS OF with plus defense, then he imploded. Progress, unfortunately, can be hard to predict.

[andyb]

Grullon is all BABIP. If he had a .300 BABIP he'd be hitting around .250. His power is close to what it was last year though seeing it 2 years in a row means it is real, but the K rate is up and the .442 BABIP is very out of character with every past season where he is generally a little below .300. Cozens has a .226 BABIP when historically he has been higher than Grullon. In other words, if they had the same BABIP Cozens would have better stats now.

None of that means Cozens will make it, but he probably has about the same shot as Grullon.

[bigegypt0417]

None of that means Cozens will make it, but he probably has about the same shot as Grullon.

I don't think that's true.

As a .250 hitter with pop and a good defensive profile, he's far more valuable as a catcher.

[andyb]

As a .250 hitter with pop and a good defensive profile, he's far more valuable as a catcher.

If he can sustain the power he would be. Still a second tier regular profile at best. Grullon will rise on prospect lists this year, though he is probably not the prospect people think he is from the stats. I am not sure he will be as good as Knapp yet, and I am not the biggest Knapp fan. Hopefully we hear good things about his defense from neutral sources.

[bigegypt0417]

A second tier catcher is a top 10 catcher in the majors...that is not really a bad thing.

[Squire]

Considering he is probably our # 2 prospect, it would be cool if there was a Spencer Howard update soon.

[bigegypt0417]

9 days ago it was a sore shoulder...I would imagine that could be a while.

[Austinfan]

Of course, Alfaro is all BABIP as well.