Phillies Prospect Lists

[nycphils]

No reason to give up, but highly unlikely. Find examples of all star caliber players over the last 30 years that had nearly as bad seasons in their first couple years - i doubt you will find many.

[Austinfan]

Probably everyone that went to college, the primary reason top talents go to college is that they're not top talents at 18, i.e., don't get drafted in the top 10-15 coming out of HS. Most don't play big time minutes as freshman, so they tend to break out their sophomore seasons and dominate as juniors, then get taken at the top of the draft.

[zambonir]

I'm still catching up on those Ringer articles and this seems as good a place as any... according to Part 3 the Phillies had the same # of full-time scouting staffers (33) in 2016 as they did in 2009. Now they have 60.

The Evolution of MLB Scouting Is a Threat to the Profession Itself

(This story says that in most cases a team needs 4-5 years of data before they can really truly evaluate how good a scout is at grading, and how well they sync with the overall operation.)

[fish]

S

I'm still catching up on those Ringer articles and this seems as good a place as any... according to Part 3 the Phillies had the same # of full-time scouting staffers (33) in 2016 as they did in 2009. Now they have 60.

theringer.com

The Evolution of MLB Scouting Is a Threat to the Profession Itself

In the final part of our deep dive into more than 73,000 scouting reports given to us by a former Cincinnati Reds front-office exec, we look at how technology and sabermetrics have changed player discovery and development—how to maintain a position...

(This story says that in most cases a team needs 4-5 years of data before they can really truly evaluate how good a scout is at grading, and how well they sync with the overall operation.)

Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen were discussing this a bit on their podcast- one eye opening element that some teams are doing to get an edge is to get agreements to provide trackmans to Juco’s and sub D1 schools that can’t afford it, then the mlb team can use the data collected to scout leagues they otherwise don’t get thorough coverage on. They wouldn’t say which teams they know to have done such a thing.

[Austinfan]

It sure looks like Klentak has them making major investments in scouting, though I suspect many of those additional 27 are statistics guys. It'll be interesting to see how this impacts their drafts and LA signings going forward.

[allentown]

No, that count doesn't include the stat guys. About a handful of those additional scouts will be in new countries, largely Asia, but Brazil and Mexico as well. The closing of the MLB scouting bureau likely also requires more in-house scouts to generate the same level of coverage the Phillies had with the bureau.

For the above article -- let's hope that the Phillies are among the teams giving equipment to colleges and sharing in the data.

[andyb]

It is a little bit of a strike against Amaro that the number of scouts did NOT increase under his rule. Some of the new increase is international. Some is catching up to the rest of MLB. Some is realizing we are a big market team that can afford a larger-than-average number of scouts. What Philly is doing really is not special. It should be expected for a high revenue club.

Of course one can have a thousand bad scouts. At some point the teams needs to be judged on its results. We probably are doing a bit better than average with low round prospects which is where one might see these results. We have had less success at the top of the draft of course, relative to drafting position.

[tom81]

What really is special is what Houston is doing, they are going all in with analytics and getting rid of scouting, especially at the MLB level. From 52 in 2016 to 18 this year. It will be interesting to see their results down the road.

[Austinfan]

What Houston is doing is less reliance on "analytics" than on using video and video analysis instead of eyeballs, that is, using spin rate instead of a scout trying to rate a breaking ball, actual placement of pitches instead of a scout's judgment of command, variance in release point instead of a scout's opinion on repeatable mechanics.

This makes total sense, you try to eliminate as much subjectivity as possible, and allow your best talent judges to have access to far more data than have to rely on mediocre talent evaluators. So instead of a scout trying to rate power, oh he's a 50 with 60 potential (and how do you compare that with another scout?) you look at bat angle, exit velocity off different pitches, etc., and have metrics that are easily comparable across players. You put together a database of eighteen year olds with different measurements (wrist size, etc) and follow them through age 25 and note how they physically mature instead of relying on eyeball guesswork. And so on.

[zambonir]

Remember the scouting department also includes pro scouts. Both MLB and minors. That was a big part of Houston's reduction too. They are not drafting based only on video and stats.

It's certainly not surprising nothing changed under Monty and Amaro, Middleton hadn't stepped in yet, we know they also didn't even have an analytics department ready until the end of Amaro's final year.

I give them no credit for finally doing it, but that huge jump after 2016 reiterates that even the Moniak draft year was still being based largely on the previous regime's work.

[Austinfan]

What I think they're doing is automating basic data that can be extracted from today's video, and the remaining scouts focus on more "judgmental" tasks, including eyeball confirmation of the analytics. So you don't need the guy with the radar gun, or flying guys all over the place, because you've collected all this data and can focus on the guys who fit your criteria.

On the other hand, if you have the money, you can use it to spend that money more efficiently, send scouts to places where they don't have that kind of video coverage and use scouts like the NFL to gather "soft" information like talking to coaches, friends, teammates, bartenders (NFL teams cover where the team hands out to pick up gossip about behavior). Intangibles matter, some guys have high work ethics and are ultra-competitive, some guys are complete A-holes, etc.

[andyb]

Not sure about that theory. Having more scouts probably means we are seeing more prospects of all types. We are not automating scouting reports. One can use all the analytical data and still need more scouts to judge tools and skills.

[julio]

Not sure about that theory. Having more scouts probably means we are seeing more prospects of all types. We are not automating scouting reports. One can use all the analytical data and still need more scouts to judge tools and skills.

This. The smart thing is not to replace scouts with technology, but do both. Do more of both than most (or any) other organizations.

That said, I suspect that part of the expansion of scouts is driven by dissatisfaction with the performance of the crew they (MacPhail/Klentak) inherited, and the realization that it takes several years' performance to evaluate a scout's quality. Want to get better ASAP? Put on lots of new scouts, evaluate their performance over the next half-decade, and weed out the poorer performers. The ultimate target number of scouts may be lower than what you see today, if they're assuming not just normal attrition, but serious weeding.

[xogfog]

Matt Breen, Scott Lauber and Bob Brookover put out their top 25 prospect list, which they will update mid and end year:

Phillies top 25 minor-league prospects: Spencer Howard, Alec Bohm lead list

[andyb]

That is a really poorly reasoned list. How can one ignore Francisco Morales and rank soft-tossing fringe prospects like Ramon Rosso? Damon Jones ahead of Gowdy? These guys really are emphasizing stats (and often a hot 2 weeks from this season) over scouting reports.

Spencer Howard might be a bold choice for a number one prospect, but I really don't think they have a clue as to why. His stuff is actually not really that comparable to Sixto at this point other than velocity (and even there Howard is a tick behind).

[zambonir]

There is really no reason to think those three guys know anything about prospects (Breen probably knows the most). Or to treat it as anything other than entertainment, where crazy picks and inspiring second-guessing is a feature, not a bug. I mean, there's not even any indication that they talked to people around the game (Phillies or otherwise) to help inform their analysis.

[bigegypt0417]

Howard and Bohm make the list...

Top MLB Prospects Hot Sheet (4/29/19)

[fish]

That is a really poorly reasoned list. How can one ignore Francisco Morales and rank soft-tossing fringe prospects like Ramon Rosso? Damon Jones ahead of Gowdy? These guys really are emphasizing stats (and often a hot 2 weeks from this season) over scouting reports.

Spencer Howard might be a bold choice for a number one prospect, but I really don't think they have a clue as to why. His stuff is actually not really that comparable to Sixto at this point other than velocity (and even there Howard is a tick behind).

I'd put Jones ahead of Gowdy too until Gowdy starts to show better than average stuff. The most telling thing about the list is suddenly how uninteresting it is. Moniak, Haseley and Ortiz in the top 10 followed by Irvin and Suarez at 11 and 12- barf.

[schooldoc]

Fortunately the core players on the major league club, with the exceptions of McCutchen & Arrieta, are still in their mid-to-upper 20's. While those guys are going to get expensive over the next few years, it also means the club has 3-5 years to get some replacements in the system ready to go. Buying guys who are still in their prime such as Realmuto, Segura and Harper has also bought Almaraz and company a little more time to get this right down on the pharm.

[andyb]

I'd put Jones ahead of Gowdy too until Gowdy starts to show better than average stuff.

My comment was much more about Jones than Gowdy. 4 starts at High A from a 24-year-old that we know does not have better than average stuff is not enough to vault him ahead of a top choice like Gowdy (whose stuff is represented by having 3 or 4 pitches that grade out as average or better more than pure velocity). Even if Jones does this all year he is 24 and the likelihood of him being a decent prospect (and Rosso) is small. Older minor leaguers often have good results in the minor leagues if they are polished and change speeds well.

Have we seen enough from Gowdy to know he is completely back? No. But we also know he started from a much higher base and has not really shown us that he is not back. He has basically shown us he has inconsistent command, but also the potential to miss some bats. The lack of new information, but showing that he is healthy, just puts him in another category from a guy like Jones.