Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[EDmuch]

Rooker's past tow years have been 30 and 39 home runs. Last year he had had a WAR over 5. There is nothing, other than your obsession with Casty, that suggest there is any significant fear of him being a sort of one year wonder.

[andyb]

Rooker's past tow years have been 30 and 39 home runs. Last year he had had a WAR over 5. There is nothing, other than your obsession with Casty, that suggest there is any significant fear of him being a sort of one year wonder.

Well he is already 30 years old and last year was his only career year over 2.2 WAR. And he played DH more than 90% of the time so his WAR if he played in the outfield might have been more like 3.0-3.5. He is almost as bad as Schwarber out there.

Now if we had an open DH slot things might be different.

[zambonir]

Yeah that is the thing, Rooker as a 3.0 WAR DH (if you assume he reverts back to 2023 or worse, which is what players his age do) is just something the Phillies can't use, and he might only be a 1.5 WAR guy in LF (i.e. no better than Marsh or Kepler overall, assuming Kepler's healthy).

Anyway, who do you trade or bench to make room for him and how much would you give up in trade? I might trade Bohm for him if LF was actually open and he could actually play LF, but it isn't and he can't (and you'd still have to give up more than that). Would trade Casty for him but you'd have to include a top prospect in that deal just for starters, and the Phillies would have to pay half of Nick's salary (and then the team also loses Nick).

[allentown]

Rooker's past tow years have been 30 and 39 home runs. Last year he had had a WAR over 5. There is nothing, other than your obsession with Casty, that suggest there is any significant fear of him being a sort of one year wonder.

It depends how you define one-year wonder. As a 5+ WAR guy, I think it highly likely he is a one-year wonder. If you mean can he match the 2+ WAR season of 2023, I'd say the odds are in his favor of doing that at least twice in the next 3 seasons. But, he will be valued as a 5 WAR player and cost us a lot. And... he would mainly replace Schwarber, who has been a consistent 3.5 WAR guy for us last season and hasn't been less than 38 HRs in his time in Philly, and whom we already have under contract for next year.

As for Castellanos, I invite you to explore his splits. During his time in Philly, he hasn't hit at all well at night or against RHP -- really down since his good years. He still hits well enough against LHP and in day games. I think it is management malpractice to start him in a night game against a RHP. At this point in his career, looking at all 3 seasons in Philly, he really shouldn't be a full-time RF. Starting 162 games last season was ludicrous. .

[zambonir]

I'm not sure the day/night thing is really something tangible (SSS if nothing else, though that isn't necessarily in his favor!) Any more than hot weather versus cold. As opposed to home/road or LHP/RHP.

But if it is, it's something that should actually be explored (and already should have been). Is he not seeing the ball well under the lights? Is that also the reason he was their only good hitter in the playoffs this year (when it was day games/shadows) And was it actually an issue from June 1 to October, when he was hitting much better overall?

[Austinfan]

Kemp wouldn't have been in the AFL if they didn't like him.
Had a great season last year after missing a lot of time, he's only had a 1049 minor league PA
548 in college and 277 PA in summer league ball before his senior year with .943 OPS.
Has played 3B and 2B, had the speed and arm to play an OF corner spot if they desire to try him there.

He'll start in Lehigh, up to him to force a promotion.

[andyb]

Kemp wouldn't have been in the AFL if they didn't like him.

Arizona league is really not that good. And teams send a bunch of players there that are not top prospects. Kemp had an 829 OPS in Reading at age 24. That is decent but really nothing special. He is not that great defensively and there is not much to suggest he is capable of something like a 700 OPS in the majors (which again is not great for a corner outfielder that is not special defensively).

He is just not better than Wilson or Rojas at the moment. Injury replacement maybe, but geez - you make a whole lot of posts about a utility guy who probably not have been rule 5 protected if he had been eligible. He has value as an injury replacement but really not much more unless he gets better. Frankly he'd better learn the OF because infield utility guys need to be better defensively.

Matt had him 30th in the organization at midseason. Maybe he has improved a bit to mid-20s, but that is just not a prospect anybody is counting on. Great for him that he improved enough to make the top 30, but guys like him really don't have much value without many (or any) plus tools.

[Austinfan]

No one is projecting him as a future starter.
He's going to be groomed as a utility, RH platoon player.
But he really came on last season, AFL was just the cherry on top.

I think Kroon had a shot at that role, but keeps getting injured which has derailed his development.

[andyb]

He's going to be groomed as a utility, RH platoon player.

Your posts seem to count on him contributing and the Phillies are counting on him for nothing. He just is not a great prospect and right-handed utility guy with below average defense is a pretty useless commodity around baseball.

[zambonir]

Presumably Buddy Kennedy will stay stashed at Lehigh Valley ahead of him (since he would not be optionable if called up) but if Buddy is ultimately released or Kemp significantly out plays him, maybe he gets a look at some point along the injury ebbs and flows. But with Bohm, Turner, Sosa and Wilson all on the MLB roster (and none of these guys really that good at playing LF) RHB utility guy truly isn't needed (and they probably won't be able to keep the LHB utility guy they already have either).

[andyb]

If Wilson or Kennedy are not doing well and Kepler requires a platoon bat the most likely scenario is the Phillies go out and find someone for that role ahead of their mediocre internal options. Finding a RH bat is really not that hard. Hays did not work out for us, but the concept of that trade or something similar is really easy to do if the Phillies are picking up the salary of the player they get.

[julio]

Presumably Buddy Kennedy will stay stashed at Lehigh Valley ahead of him (since he would not be optionable if called up)...

Buddy Kennedy currently is on the 40-man roster, and has no options remaining. It's not clear he can be "stashed" in AAA. He either sticks on the Active roster (26-man), or he's DFA/outrighted (if not claimed).

If he is outrighted (if he clears waivers) in March, it's not unreasonable to assume tht he might clear waivers a further time if DFA'ed later in the season - but he might opt for free agency at that point?

[andyb]

Stashed is still probably the right word for Buddy Kennedy who is a AAAA player that right now is depth for Weston Wilson but few think he is actually better. I think the Phillies were the 4th team to claim Kennedy off waivers. Such is the life of a AAAA player really not good enough for the majors unless a team has an injury need.

Whether the Phillies will be successful in trying to get Kennedy to AAA is another story, but they probably would want to "stash" him there for another year if he clears waivers.

[zambonir]

Oh I agree if they need a platoon it is not Kemp or anyone. But if they just need a bench player it could be anyone.

I was thinking Kennedy could start the year in AAA and only be subject to waivers if he got called up and sent down, my mistake. Clemens is in the same boat, some think he'll have trade value.

Weston Wilson is in the awkward position of possibly being the best player of the group, but also the one with an option. Would not surprise me if Clemens is the one who breaks camp, even if it isn't permanent. Kennedy I'm sure they don't care what happens to him, even if they need him around to talk Mike Trout into playing here

[Austinfan]

Wilson made the team b/c he showed significant improvement at Lehigh, even though he was overaged.
That's why you have an AAA team.

A mix of legitimate prospects, older players bouncing back from injuries and AAA plus types trying to take that step up that will land them in the Show for a few years.

[andyb]

Of course the AAA roster is there to supply players to the major league roster and it will be a combination of prospects, older AAAA players that can contribute, and filler. That does not mean the Phillies are counting on Kemp or Matt Kroon or Buddy Kennedy or Dalton Guthrie or Oliver Dunn (MLB OPS of .597 last year) for anything other than emergency help.

If they improve or emerge like Wilson did they are a great story and helpful to the team. But that does not mean the Phillies consider them real prospects where they are anticipating roles like you seem to.

I would not be surprised if the Phillies bring in another major league veteran or two to training camp (probably on minor league deals) to compete with Wilson and anybody else for that roster spot. It really feels that they do not trust even Wilson with the role. They seem to praise Clemens more for instance and while I have nothing against him being the last guy on the bench, a right-handed bat is really the better fit if the team wants some insurance on Kepler.

[julio]

I was thinking Kennedy could start the year in AAA and only be subject to waivers if he got called up and sent down, my mistake. Clemens is in the same boat, some think he'll have trade value.

More or less the same boat. Kennedy was outrighted once before in his career, so has the option of declining an outright assignment and electing free agency; Clemens has not been outrighted before, so he would have to accept such an assignment (assuming he cleared waivers).

Neither of them is critical to the Phillies; other similar players are pretty much always available.

[zambonir]

I think the Phillies value Clemens more as an IF (and really that is also still Wilson's primary position) though that value is still somewhat limited. But if there's a minor injury to Schwarber or Harper, Clemens is the 1B (or Bohm is and that opens 3B), and the platoon option with Sosa at 2b or 3B (with either Sosa or Stott playing SS) with any other injuries.

And let's not forget his pitching.

If they are truly fungible it won't matter, and if they are truly not, they might have modest trade value (maybe not as much as Tyler Gilbert).

[andyb]

They traded for Clemens largely because he had 2 options remaining. I get that he is insurance for a left-handed bat getting hurt, it just is not that important to the team. Somebody at AAA could fill that role. Cal Stevenson or Rojas could play CF and shift Marsh to LF with Kepler going to 1B (he only has 3 appearances there but as a 6'4" left-handed outfielder he is actually ideally positioned to do that more later in his career. And I actually think Rincones is more likely to contribute in the second half among the AAA pseudo prospects.

Clemens probably does have a bit of trade value. If we got something sort of decent for Tyler Gilbert we can probably do that for Clemens (whereas they probably will need to hope Buddy Kennedy gets through waivers if he does not make the team out of Spring Training).

[fish]

In a BA scout poll, the Phils tied for 6th as the most “scout friendly” orgs. That’s reassuring (Mets were tied for last with no votes)

Tied for 5th with the orioles in ability to identify talent (ironically, the orioles were tied with the Mets as least scout friendly).

And while not necessarily a ranking, Brian Barber was listed first in the “Most impressive scouts” list, and Brian Harmon in the “up and coming” scouts list.

Of the 12 sleeper prospects who deserve attention, 3 were Phillies- Jean Cabrera, Aidan Miller, and Eduardo Tait.