Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

Don't know what you see in him. They don't need another DH and he's not worth a trade price. Maybe in July if Kepler or Casty bust.

[Austinfan]

Wonder if Kepler is an insurance policy for Castellanos falling off the proverbial cliff.
That would allow you to platoon in both LF and RF if Rojas improves. Or if Crawford is ready.

[VoteForKalas]

I think Kepler was available for nothing and willing to sign for a short term.

As we've seen, those are the guys the Phillies can get now due to their lack of payroll flexibility.

I doubt Kepler would ever be considered if the Philliies could have their optimal choice. This is the price of making some poor roster decisions earlier and not being able to rectify them.

[allentown]

As we've seen, those are the guys the Phillies can get now due to their lack of payroll flexibility.

I doubt Kepler would ever be considered if the Philliies could have their optimal choice. This is the price of making some poor roster decisions earlier and not being able to rectify them.

Exactly true on all counts.

[julio]

As we've seen, those are the guys the Phillies can get now due to their lack of payroll flexibility.

I doubt Kepler would ever be considered if the Philliies could have their optimal choice. This is the price of making some poor roster decisions earlier and not being able to rectify them.

Exactly true on all counts.

Well, as "true" as conjecture ever is, I guess.

[zambonir]

I am definitely a bit concerned that the Phillies overrated Kepler (in terms of playing time and weak side platoon production) just like they did with Hays and Merrifield. But, they are still a good enough team regardless, and a great one if Luzardo and Suarez stay healthy. And the other available free agents for LF were not worth the juice, ditto the trade candidates. All either flawed or overpriced. The Kepler signing looks a lot better in the context of them upgrading the pitching. Had they not done that, they needed a bat.

In the end if it doesn't work out they can still attempt to address it with a RHB trade deadline guy. Or maybe Crawford really will play his way into the roster by July.

If father time or injuries catch up to them this season they will have much harder decisions to make about Schwarber and Realmuto, because they still don't have any internal future corner OFs.

[rpmcmurphy]

In the end if it doesn't work out they can still attempt to address it with a RHB trade deadline guy. Or maybe Crawford really will play his way into the roster by July.

But Crawford is also left handed, so he doesn’t affect the need for a RHB.

[zambonir]

No but if Kepler stinks he'll replace Kepler. I think Wilson is probably fine as a weak platoon bat and they have Rojas too. In fact the entire bench save the catcher is RH unless Clemens beats out Wilson.

If Nick craters (or Bohm isn't great) that's another story though I still don't think it's a lefty righty thing, they will just be short a middle-of-the-order bat.

[andyb]

But Crawford is also left handed, so he doesn’t affect the need for a RHB.

Maybe the Phillies really believe in Weston Wilson as a right-handed bat. I never understood the huge need to add a right-handed full time left fielder when the left-handers would have more of a platoon advantage. We were unlikely to be able to afford a right-handed bat that was good enough to be better than Kepler against right-handed pitching. So platooning was always the best choice.

And look at Weston Wilson's splits. He is very good against left-handed pitching. 1025 OPS in a small sample in the majors last year but more importantly in the minors he has been killing left-handed pitching the past couple of years. 1000+ OPS in 2023. More balanced last year but still over 800 OPS. I think Wilson will give us a 750-800 OPS in 200-300 plate appearances skewed to more playing time against left-handed pitching.

We have really good left-handed bats in our lineup. There is definitely pressure on the key right-handed bats (Casty, Bohm, Realmuto) to deliver but since we were not going to upgrade those bats we would have had to pay $20 million plus a year to sign a RH bat better than Kepler. That was never going to happen. Kapler is a 1-year deal with little risk and considerable upside (and they are already into the top luxury tier so who cares?).

[RolenRules]

"and they are already into the top luxury tier so who cares?"

That also seems like an argument to have signed an OF a bit younger and better and right handed, say Tyler O'Neill

[andyb]

Because the caring refers to this season. A 1-year deal for Kepler has no risk in future seasons. O'Neill had a 3 year deal and is younger of course, but is he really better? Here is his OPS the last 3 years: 700/715/847. Kepler is better defensively also.

The salary DOES matter long term. But our issues there are more Nola and Wheeler and Harper and Turner. I just don't think O'Neill is that much better than Kepler and a 1-year deal for much less money gives them protection on that. Would I have been disappointed if they had signed O'Neill? No. He has always underperformed his talent level and maybe last year is real. And its not my money. But none of that changes the likelihood that Kepler could be as good as O'Neill for a lot less money and position themselves for further changes down the road (which might include Turner in the OF in a couple of years depending on Miller).

[zambonir]

Are they actually in the top luxury tier (presumably, pending arbitration)? I assumed these moves were also about staying just under the 110% penalty, whereas a better player than Kepler or a FA instead of trading for Luzardo would have blown them into it (and doubled those theoretical players' salaries too).

Now, obviously it's also better to just be $2 million over than $20 million over, but at that point it's only money. Either way I assume they'll go over at the deadline if necessary (but it might not be if they trade for someone that the other team is picking up $ on, or if they do a deal that can include salary going back (as with both the O's deals last year, or when the Philllies took Matt Harrison in the Hamels deal).

[Austinfan]

I think Wilson is the first half answer. Come July they'll have a better read on Kemp as well.
And Sosa has good splits, maybe they can talk Turner into LF on a part-time basis.

[zambonir]

Based on the Phillies history (with Castellanos, Merrifield, Hays, even Josh Harrison to some extent) I think we can just expect to see Kepler playing nearly every day until June at the earliest, even if he is struggling (unless the team is struggling overall). An approach they still haven't been willing to take with Marsh.

Turner won't see a minute in the OF. If you really give these guys days off you've got Rojas as well as Wilson (and Kepler could also play RF on Nick's days off, however many there are).

[andyb]

I think Wilson is the first half answer. Come July they'll have a better read on Kemp as well.

Does Kemp have pictures on you?

His talent level certainly does not justify all the glowing posts. He is a nice, inexpensive utility bat candidate. Wilson is that with better defense and more offense. Neither are that great. If we actually need a bat in the second half we'll go out and get a better one.

[EDmuch]

A RH bat with 40 home run power and a .280 BA, 15 stolen bases and he can play left field. To me a lineup of Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Rooker would be very potent. If by July Crawford is there to bat lead off, it becomes even more potent: Crawford, Turner, Harper, Rooker, Schwarber. I do not understand how you can dismiss a RH bat with 40 home run power.

[zambonir]

I just don't think he can actually play OF (well, or at all - only 14 games last year, 58 the year before). And I don't think what he did last year is likely to be repeated.

Plus he's not really available. And he'd never play with Crawford because Crawford would be on the A's (and so would two more decent prospects).

Not to mention the Phillies already have a LF now. If Kepler flops and Rooker is available at the deadline, sure, he's on the list. Ditto if Castellanos flops and the Phillies were actually willing to do something about it. Or if, God forbid, our DH or 1B had major injuries. But right now there's no place for him on the Phillies roster.

[RolenRules]

Thank you for your well reasoned reply.

[Callison]

I like Wilson's looks on the field. I'd have preferred to give him a shot rather than sign Kepler. The Phils have whiffed on nearly all their reclamation projects to date. Seems they're due to get one right.

[allentown]

Rooker would be very potent

DD already made a serious error over-paying for a career year from a redundant and defensively-limited Castellanos. Rooker is a serious risk of being a very costly repeat of that error.

Wilson should get significant chances this season.