Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[flyers19rw]

Then the inmates are running the asylum. This isn't a social club; it's a business where the whole has not matched the sum of its parts. Time to break it up. Detroit has been rumored to want a RH power bat for the OF. That might be a great fit for Nick. He came up there and might not mind a return tour with the Tigers. If JT wants to stay in Philly, he's going to need to lighten his work load and take a cut in pay. DD may say today that o changes are on the horizon but that's just playing poker. If he runs it back, the Phillies are a third place team in the East and out of the POs next season. I can't see Middleton playing that route.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I don’t get all the Castellanos hate popping up in this thread. Yes, he’s got his flaws and it was a signing that was questionable due to the redundancy with Schwarber. But I think Nick was our second best hitter in the second half of the season behind Harper, and we probably would have gone 0-3 versus the Mets in the playoffs if not for his contributions in game #2. Realistically, the Phillies best chance to compete next season is to run it back with most of the same players, unless they want to exceed the next CBT threshold. Getting rid of Castellanos, which will most likely require picking up a good portion of his remaining salary, is going to make the team less competitive next year IMHO.

[phillychuck]

Realistically, in pro sports, the inmates (players) ARE running the asylum to some extent. Pro teams don't trade away players who have high perceived value on the team, they especially don't pay to dump them. This is particularly true in baseball, although basketball has these issues, too. (Right here in Philly the Sixers couldn't dump Harris, at least partly because he was a valued member of a contending team.)

Hockey not so much because of contract-to-value issues with a tight cap and an old-school mindset, and football teams trade good players all the time for cap flexibility (Haason Reddick). Today, it's as much the players' team as it is the owners', especially in baseball. Ask LeBron and Harper and Embiid if they have say in personnel decisions...

[zambonir]

They don't pay Dombrowski because it's easy. Honestly I think they could run it back with minimal changes and still be more or less a post-season lock (wild card at least). The factors that led to the Mets making the playoffs and the Braves almost missing them were not due to those teams making either great or poor off-season moves and it's hardly certain both teams will be better next year (if anything the Braves are more likely to bounce back). Ditto what happened to the DBacks, Astros, Rangers and Indians (two teams that failed, one team that's fading, one that is still playing which nobody expected) this year. You just never know.

But, having tried and failed to sign Yamamoto last year, having essentially failed three times with a platoon LF (doing nothing in 23, Merrifield, Hays) and supposedly having serious interest in both Crochet and a CF upgrade last deadline, I doubt they will stand pat.

And I don't think "hate" really has to come into it. You want to trade players while they still have some value and before you are stuck with them... if you can. Nick is hardly the only player they should consider moving on from. The others are all younger and cheaper and would fetch a better return. With Nick you'd just want some prospects and to free up $10 million towards a new guy.

[xyzabc25]

NOTE FROM MOD (PC): OUR NEW USER HAD 4 PENDING POSTS THAT ALL CAME IN TOGETHER BELOW. TRY TO MAKE SENSE OF WHO HE OR SHE IS RESPONDING TO.

I think the likelihood of getting any of them is pretty slim. I would take Doyle and plug him into CF every day. His batting splits are .257 vs L and .262 vs R. We need two-way OF help in the worst way. All of these players are already proving themselves on the bis stage. I'm not sure we can expect Crawford or Miller to produce these kinds of numbers. I would only pursue players who I think want to be Phillies over the long-term who I am also willing to pay at or above market to retain.

[xyzabc25]

Castellanos can be traded if the Phillies are willing to buy down maybe one of the two remaining years on his contract. I wince when a ball is driven into the corner because Casty is so slow, and often clumsy, he will play it into a triple or an inside-the-park HR.

[xyzabc25]

Congrats to them.

[xyzabc25]

Agreed. Painter performed well in his first Arizona Fall league test. If healthy he's a rotation piece in 2025. Ranger Suarez could bring a solid relief pitcher in a trade this winter. Crawford or Miller plus another prospect in the below 10 category might get a Kwan trade done.

[VoteForKalas]

My takeaway from DD's end of season presser is:

Nothing major will be done. Run it back and hope for better performance.

Some of this may be window dressing (pun intended) and not totally indicative of what DD really thinks or what might be done, but he certainly comes across as someone who is satisfied with the status quo with little urgency to change direction.

Schwarber: 31
Turner: 31
Harper: 31
Casty: 32
Realmuto: 33

Glad to hear they have a specific development plan for Rojas' offensive approach again and also a detailed program for Walker to work on.

[zambonir]

Dave's not always known for showing his cards. I guess they did on Turner (or some SS) but the rest of those '23 moves (Walker, Soto, Kimbrel) were pretty surprising when more modest acquisitions were expected. It also surprised me just how high they went on Yamamoto even if he was never that interested.

I gotta imagine WIP is full of people bashing Thomson and Long right now. I'll watch the replay of the presser later.

Over the previous two seasons this team rode out a lot of time without Harper and then without Hoskins all of last year, but with Realmuto plainly not a top offensive player anymore and Turner wearing down this year, the margin for error is thin. At least they finally figured out a way to keep JT under 100 games; will they stick with Marchan and Stubbs next year (since Marchan is always hurt and Stubbs can be optioned) or sign whole new back-up?

[Austinfan]

DD is sort of in a corner, went all in and came up short.
Now his core is aging, but his youth is 2-3 years away.
Doesn't have the cap room for a big splash unless they want major penalties (not just fiscal, but hurt the farm).

He'll run it back with tweaks b/c he has few viable options.
But Painter, Crawford, maybe Ricones might be able to contribute post-All Star break, a lot of teams like this make runs when a couple young players come up and fill holes.

Maybe one second tier move, and a bunch of Hoffman/Ruiz type ST invites.

[zambonir]

They will take the development penalties if they have to. It would only be for one year (with JT and Schwarber off the books next year, followed by Casty and Walker). You can either spend money in free agency and take that hit, or spend prospect capital in trade (whether in the off-season or at the deadline). I'd rather drop 10 places in the first-round than trade one of our Top 5 prospects.

[allentown]

Yes, this is what I mean by the Phillies being a collection of coddled stars, rather than a team -- a team which makes decisions based upon increasing the odds of winning, not ceding control to mutually-supporting fading stars.

[VoteForKalas]

I think Turner is the under the radar problem.

They paid him like a super star and he has not been close to that so far.

He was overall better in 2024 than 2023, but still a .807 OPS is.not enough for what should be expected. At 31, one has to surnise his peak is past and we'll be paying mostly for his decline.

I understand this is the nature of long term deals for most MLB FA because you're paying for what they have already done, not for what he will do during the contract, but it is possible to mitigate risk and select players who have skill sets that age better.

[julio]

Agreed. Painter performed well in his first Arizona Fall league test. If healthy he's a rotation piece in 2025. Ranger Suarez could bring a solid relief pitcher in a trade this winter. Crawford or Miller plus another prospect in the below 10 category might get a Kwan trade done.

wyzabc25 - Welcome to Philliesphans!

Personally, I think you're optimistic about what we might acquire in trade, and I'm not convinced that we should, in general, assume that a 27-year-old player with three years service time is a "long term" solution. Steven Kwan has three seasons (all arb-eligible) prior to free agency. Three years really isn't "long term," in an environment where your own prospect is under your control for six years, and free-agent contracts typically run 4-6 years as well.

[phillychuck]

One of the problems we have looking at players is not taking into account how dramatically offense is down everywhere. Turner was a very good offensive SS this year. 7th in the majors by offensive fWAR among regulars. 124 wRC+ is really quite good. A shortstop whose offensive production is 24% better than all batters is pretty valuable. He was second to Harper on the team in overall WAR at 3.9. He's not remotely part of the problem.

[Austinfan]

Yet. His approach to hitting may not age well as he loses a little bat speed.
The bigger problem is his defense is steadily declining at the most important defensive position.
His two peak seasons were 28-29, he's a 4 WAR player right now, but 9 years to go.
Will he be above replacement level at 35?

[bkox]

He was overall better in 2024 than 2023, but still a .807 OPS is.not enough for what should be expected.

Again I feel we arent realizing how much offense has dropped league wide.

Turners .807 OPS was 28th best in all of MLB.

In 2022.. the year before we signed him he ranked 32nd.

In all of MLB only 29 players had an OPS better than .800. That number was 61 as recent as 2021 and 76 in 2008.

[andyb]

Will he be above replacement level at 35?

There is a very good chance though probably not at SS.

We'll be through the Wheeler contract by then. It is not your money. Turner and his approach are really not the problem. We just won the division and 95 games. The complementary players can be a little better, but there just is not a major problem with the roster.

[zambonir]

This is the reason OPS+ exists, after all. Turner was third on the team at 124, making him 24% better than the average hitter, and that's also what he did in 2021 (last year he was 110). He is still a Top 20 hitter in MLB by OPS+ and WRC+ (and as BKox noted even by raw OPS he was 28th). Harper and Schwarber are both Top 10 in all categories.

Doesn't mean he isn't overpaid (and the fielding remains a surprise/disappointment, at least to me). This is just the problem that is built-in to buying at the top of the free agent market, and with the injury and slump inevitability of older players.

To me all of the above also highlights why Castellanos is merely a very good hitter not a star, without even considering his defense (his 106 OPS+ was still lower than both Marsh and JT, obviously due to the poor early season).

They desperately need Bohm to be able to be around .800 next year, and for Stott to get back to his 2023 levels, but neither of them, nor Marsh, are ever going to be elite-level offensive producers. And obviously the system hasn't produced anyone else who is even close. But that's the organization Dombrowski inherited, and going all-in is the course he and Middleton chose, not incorrectly given what we've enjoyed for the last three years.

Saw Dombrowski said that the team does not need to go out and get another star, but also that he's not opposed to trading good players for good players.