Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[Squire]

More intrigued by the fact that nobody has signed Jeff Hoffman yet either.

[andyb]

ESPN article from yesterday predicts us as landing Santander (3/69 projection).

MLB free agency reset: Predictions for Burnes, Bregman, other top remaining...

Still in the mix for Bregman too (though assume not both).

[fish]

ESPN article from yesterday predicts us as landing Santander (3/69 projection).

for all the guys they weren't willing to spend to go over on, Santander makes even less sense.

[Austinfan]

What may make sense is waiting until enough teams have spent their way out of the market.
Then you can find bargains as players/agents realize the market has dried up.
Given their situation, the Phillies may prefer players who want one year deals if that happens so they can hit the market again next fall.

When your GM feels no urgency (his job is secure) you can be more patient.

[zambonir]

Yeah Santander certainly thumps but would not change the offensive or defensive dynamic.

[saycheese]

Yeah Santander at 23 mill per year year, plus the loss of draft picks and the international signing bonus money (which takes the longshot of Sasaki out of the picture). And also going over the last threshold by about 10 million bucks I don't think they will do that.
No question he would be an upgrade but is he that much of an upgrade? I don't think the juice matches the squeeze on this one.

[andyb]

Not saying it is what I would do. Just expectations for what DD would do. I do have some concerns about Santander defensively and with his overall offensive game. Not too patient at the plate and relatively unathletic (18th percentile sprint speed).

I just think there are probably better ways to fill our LF hole. I am definitely open to dealing Bohm if the return is substantial. There is logic to filling the LF spot with more offense and then getting a better defensive 3B.

[Austinfan]

That's the problem with being a good team.
If you have glaring holes, it can make sense to overpay to fix one, going from 0 WAR to 3 WAR.
But if you're trying to upgrade Rojas, doesn't make sense to pay $20+M to go from 1-2 WAR to 3 WAR.

If Painter wasn't healthy, it might make sense to invest real money in another SP, going from -1 (Walker) to +2.
But if you think Painter gets 20 starts, and maybe another kid emerges, now you're spending to upgrade 10-20 starts overall. The value of that upgrade is diminished.

[andyb]

Question - if the Phillies sign a compensation free agent like Santander is the loss of international bonus money for the 2025 or 2026 period? Answering the question was probably easier when the period started in July. The 2025 period starts before the free agent period is completed though, so maybe all international slot compensation questions are pushed to 2026.

[saycheese]

I agree, is there a Brandon Marsh type player out there that is right handed that he may pursue. As much as I think the Angels got the better of the Ohoppe trade, I still think it was worth while gamble for the Phillies. I am think that may be more of what they are looking to do at this point .I don't think they are trading Bohm right now.

[Matt_Winkelman]

It affects 2026 pools, the 2025 pools are already locked because of this. So it won't affect Sasaki, but given we know they have agreements it is something that will factor in on some level.

Which isn't to say they shouldn't sign QO, but lets say Body Cellinger was available in trade for 2/$57.5M and Heoscar Ternandez was available with a QO for 3/$66M it would factor into what you would actually offer for Body, and keep it at least under your QO penalties. Essentially it becomes like a trade you are force to make to sign the player.

[fish]

Question - if the Phillies sign a compensation free agent like Santander is the loss of international bonus money for the 2025 or 2026 period?

It’s where they finish at the end of the season for budget in the next signing period.

[Aquapong]

I think we’re mostly going to be running it back. Signing Hays back at a lower rate wouldn’t be a bad idea if he’s amenable to it. Perhaps something with several escalators to dangle in front of him.

The Phils will certainly have some interesting decisions to make with QO’s for JT, Schwarber, and Suarez next year.

[allentown]

Since we traded Seranthony and haven't re-signed Huffman we aren't running it back. We have a significantly less capable bullpen than we had last season. I'm happy to run it back but the pen is short, at least on quality.

[zambonir]

But Ruiz had passed Seranthony on the depth chart last year, and Romano replaces Hoffman. They didn't have Estevez for the entire first half of the season and he was really replacing Alvarado more than Seranthony. So what they need is for Alvarado to earn his role and salary as one of the Top 4 guys, with Ruiz 5th. Your 6-8 guys are never big money or high leverage, which also opens the door for another Hoffman, Ruiz or Alvarado (when he was first acquired) to emerge. The last time they tried to gild the bullpen lily was Soto, who was worse than those three guys (and Seranthony too).

[zambonir]

The Phils will certainly have some interesting decisions to make with QO’s for JT, Schwarber, and Suarez next year.

That would be the dream scenario if all three of those guys got QOs and took them. I don't think any of them will. JT will probably be extended. Suarez will reject it (assuming he has a good year, if not he doesn't get it). If Schwarber wanted to just do a one-year deal that would be perfect.

[flyers19rw]

I suspect that JT and Schwarber will be here on re-ups for two or three years and then retire as Phillies. There really is no need for them to move on and face the hassles of getting involved with new organizations. They’ve made their money and established their legacies here.
Ranger is in a different situation. He’ll be thirty in August. He carries some health issues and never pitched over 150 innings. If he has a good 2025, the Phillies would probably QO him. Maybe a team would grab him; maybe not. His best deal would be a three to four year extension with the Phils. His situation is interesting. The organization has been good to him and his family getting them out of Venezuelan.

[BostonRoss]

Trading Seranthony actually improved the bullpen as he had negative WAR. He was better in Baltimore but still had a 5.33 FIP and gave up 6 homers in 22.2 innings.

I would say the pen is presently a bit worse than in 2024 without Estevez and Hoffman, but they may yet re-sign one of them, and they added Romano.

[allentown]

But Ruiz had passed Seranthony on the depth chart last year, and Romano replaces Hoffman.

Romano is an interesting, cheap flyer, but not at all clear that he replaces Hoffman.

[zambonir]

Well, we dont' know if he'll succeed, but he has a longer track record than Hoffman did (or does, even), and makes a lot more money right now than Hoffman did last year (or Estevez). Also the second-highest paid reliever on the team. He's akin to the Kimbrel signing who was cheap relative to his own history; with Romano they simply had to match the expected arb number his old team refused to risk.

I think Hoffman's going to start somewhere and I don't see how the Phillies have $8-12 million for the bullpen if they are trying to stay under the last threshold, and maybe even more so if they do go over, because then it costs double and they'll already be paying that on whichever position player put them over.