Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

That was just not enough money coming back from the Cubs, but it also cost the Yankees very little as a result. And they obviously do not have the same hesitation the Phillies do to bust past the Steve Cohen line (and are under more pressure, being the y are the Yankees and having lost Soto). I was interested in Bellinger but paying Bellinger $45 million in real money (salary + tax) if he's only a 2 WAR instead of a 3-4 WAR would not have been great.

There's still plenty of time and plenty of moves to be made. But if they stay they course and get it wrong, I don't think they will take a step back, I think they'll go crazy at the deadline or next year or both.

[saycheese]

I am fine with running it back. This year is just a tough year to try and retool. Their salary commitments (Still 2nd in baseball in salary although the Yankees are hot on their trail) along with where the prospects are in the system it just didn't make sense. Next offseason they have a bunch of dollars coming off the books, but we also should have a better idea on Miller, Crawford, Marchan, Rincones, Chace, Johnson, Abel, Painter, Otto Kemp etc. In other words we have some young guys who are close. How many of them will be ready for that next step. TBD. I do think Painter will be her this year. Same with Marchan if he can make it through spring training healthy and I still think Otto Kemp has an outside shot of breaking camp as a platoon guy in LF as well as being able to play some other positions.

[bkeich]

Go ahead with minor tweaks. Destructive moves won't help. Schwarber is still very productive. He has only one more season. I am not interested in seemingly random churn, especially if it hurts the team going forward. Trading Schwarber hurts in the present.

Well, I wasn’t saying Schwarber was bad, just that he is tradeable and it fixes a problem.

Mine was a response to what I took as AF’s “What I would do”, so does this mean you just run it back with minor tweaks or would you make a bigger move. (Nothing wrong with that per se, I just don’t think it will work)

I am honestly confused why people don’t see moving one of Castellanos or Schwarber as helping, but to each his own. I picked Schwarber because I think we can get something for him. By getting Castellanos off the field we win the trade pretty much no matter what.

[UnsaltySailor]

There still a lot of offseason left. A lot can happen or nothing can happen. JT Realmuto was traded to the Phillies in February, a week before pitchers and catchers reported.

For what's it worth, Vegas odds already have the Phillies behind the NY Soto Mets and Atlanta Healthier Braves for the division and 2025 World Series.

[zambonir]

By getting Castellanos off the field we win the trade pretty much no matter what.

I just don't see how this is at all true. The Castellanos from May 1 to October 1 was one of the team's three best hitters. There were times he carried them (and he was the only one of the four best hitters to not miss time with injuries). He was third on the team in HRs and 4th in RBIs. And even with his slump and poor defense he still hit enough to put up 0.8 WAR, and a 106 OPS+. Granted, we don't know what he'll be like this year and even Weston Wilson had better numbers, but only in a part-time platoon role (which they still don't seem willing to give him even in LF). It is just not that easy to find a good-hitting corner OF who's also a good defender. The Phillies haven't been able to find a good-hitting corner OF period for three straight seasons (Cave/no one in 2022, Merrifield/Hays in 2023 and now stasis for the moment).

Schwarber's not that different from Castellanos either, except even harder to trade for equal value. He's our second-best hitter and as a DH/pending FA, his trade value won't help you replace him. You probably could have traded him straight-up for Bellinger but why would you? He wouldn't have gotten you Tucker. Unlike Nick someone would take his salary but return still wouldn't be high.

Even Bohm is not getting them anything they want, all these other guys are worth less.

[EDmuch]

Sometimes the anti-Casty crowd gets carried away with their own emotions.

[zambonir]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8v0ecI5uHA

I still don't subscribe to PHLY or listen/watch podcasts but per the email newsletter, talking about Ranger and Boras, they figure so long as Ranger has a similar season to last year overall (in line with his career ERA and typical 2+ WAR) he's looking at a $20M AAV and will be hard to keep. Of course Phillies have already signaled they expect to lose him (if they don't move him first themselves).

And I guess Ken Rosenthal did some podcast where he says he still thinks Bohm is gone. He also says it's just not Dombrowski's nature to stand pat, though I actually think that is an outdated take, just as that old nickname wasn't really true of Gillick for many years after he got it.

https://x.com/FoulTerritoryTV/status/1869100049382478023

[saycheese]

Dombrowski pretty much stood pat last year. Aside from bringing in Merifield. He brought in Romano this year. So he is good :).
The thing about Rosenthal podcast was this was his opinion. No inside information just he has heard Bohms name out there a ton (paraphrasing) . Well yeah, the Topper did say teams were calling on him. When you bench an All Star player in the playoffs teams tend to think he may be available. Topper said they were not shopping him. Honestly if even half the rumors of what they are asking for are true, then what Topper is saying is true. You don't sell players like Bohm for pennies on a dollar. If you can win a deal like getting a Kirby etc then you may pull the trigger. We are not trading Bohm for Castillo. The salary and age on Castillo don't make sense for someone who is going to be their 4/5th starter. Taking on his salary plus paying the highest level of tax, will also cost you the ability to replace Bohm. An offense we think needs to get better probably gets worse. Love him or not with Bohm he still drove in 97 runs last year, was up the top of the league in doubles for most of the year. Yes he struggled down the stretch but without him you don't win the division. You can't trade him for a 32 yr old starting pitcher who has a 4.25 era outside of T Mobile Park. Rosenthal also insinuated we would have to add more to that deal. I would be stunned if the Phillies made a deal like that.

I think they start the season with Ranger, outside chance they deal him at the trade deadline depending on how our pitching prospects develop

[zambonir]

I still go back to what Matt and literally every journalist in Philly and America has reported - he was very very available and every team knew it. The inside information was the opposing GMs telling them Bohm's been offered to them, not that they were calling to try and get him. What Topper said was basically damage control - likely a flat-out untruth even - since they were unable to move him.

Castillo is signed for a long time and has a much bigger track record than Bohm (or Ranger) so long as you think he won't decline more with age he'd be a good pick-up and ultimate short-term replacement for Ranger. But it still only makes sense if you have the right deal for Ranger, or a clear plan for 3B (you certainly can't sign another FA for 3B or LF if you take on Castillo's salary, even with Seattle throwing some in. Unless they take Walker back).

[bkeich]

By getting Castellanos off the field we win the trade pretty much no matter what.

I just don't see how this is at all true. The Castellanos from May 1 to October 1 was one of the team's three best hitters. There were times he carried them (and he was the only one of the four best hitters to not miss time with injuries). He was third on the team in HRs and 4th in RBIs. And even with his slump and poor defense he still hit enough to put up 0.8 WAR, and a 106 OPS+. Granted, we don't know what he'll be like this year and even Weston Wilson had better numbers, but only in a part-time platoon role (which they still don't seem willing to give him even in LF). It is just not that easy to find a good-hitting corner OF who's also a good defender. The Phillies haven't been able to find a good-hitting corner OF period for three straight seasons (Cave/no one in 2022, Merrifield/Hays in 2023 and now stasis for the moment).

Schwarber's not that different from Castellanos either, except even harder to trade for equal value. He's our second-best hitter and as a DH/pending FA, his trade value won't help you replace him. You probably could have traded him straight-up for Bellinger but why would you? He wouldn't have gotten you Tucker. Unlike Nick someone would take his salary but return still wouldn't be high.

Even Bohm is not getting them anything they want, all these other guys are worth less.

I didn’t say getting Castellanos out of the lineup was the goal, but instead getting off the defensive side. (At least that was my intent). His appx.. -2 dWAR alone makes any deal for Schwarber or him a success (probably, within reason). My point was just replacing him in the field with a 0 dWAR outfielder (agreed, not necessarily a slam dunk easy) is a success.

I think I am not making the point, by trading one of them, the other is the full time DH and neither of them takes the field.

[zambonir]

No, my bad, I kind of lost track of your logic there, but I can't agree that anything is worth losing Schwarber. Anything realistic, at least. He could only be replaced by another $20 million+ FA or by trading Crawford (at minimum). And not only is he our second-best hitter he is one of the top two hitters with the approach the Phillies claim to need more of, not less of.

One thing we haven't considered is the Phillies might extend Schwarber and/or JT before the season even starts. They'd have to really want to do it and be ready to take pay cuts, but on the team side, it would be a way to lower this year's CBT number (by rolling this year's deal into a new AAV. At least I think that's allowed).

[saycheese]

So you are saying Topper, Dombrowski and Boras all lied. And if they did that is fine, why keep propagating a rumor that no longer is there? I put the chances of them trading Bohm at less than 20%. They are simply not going to trade him for pennies on the dollar.

Honestly if they do trade Ranger or replace Ranger its not going to be with another high priced pitcher who is 3yrs older like Castillo. If they wanted to pay 20 mill plus for a pitcher why not just sign Ranger?

[bkeich]

No, my bad, I kind of lost track of your logic there, but I can't agree that anything is worth losing Schwarber. Anything realistic, at least. He could only be replaced by another $20 million+ FA or by trading Crawford (at minimum). And not only is he our second-best hitter he is one of the top two hitters with the approach the Phillies claim to need more of, not less of.

One thing we haven't considered is the Phillies might extend Schwarber and/or JT before the season even starts. They'd have to really want to do it and be ready to take pay cuts, but on the team side, it would be a way to lower this year's CBT number (by rolling this year's deal into a new AAV. At least I think that's allowed).

Schwarber is probably my favorite player on the team right now, so I hate the idea of trading him. He is fun to watch much in the same way Howard was, sometimes you just see the sparkle in their eye as they realize they guessed the pitch correctly and are about to obliterate the ball.

I was just doing an exercise in “what would I do to improve the team” and he is the one tradeable guy that I think improves the team pretty much no matter what if you get something for him and move Castellanos out of the field.

I will be sad if it happens.

[Jazzhead]

The bottom line to me is that the Phillies basically appear to be stuck. They simply don't have enough expendable valuable assets to trade. So, as a result, it's either buy free agents or run it back.

"Stuck" with a team that easily won the NL East, boasts three ace-caliber pitchers and an upcoming rookie phenom, and at least five hitters capable of 30 homers or 100 RBIs. There simply isn't all that much that needs to be done this offseason other than bolster the relief corps, which DD has begun to do.

Our ability to make splashy trades is hampered both by our overall payroll (second in MLB, I believe) and because so many members of our lineup are more valuable to us than to another team (e.g.,Casty and Bohm). Fine - let 'em drive in 100 runs apiece for us again next year.

I continue to believe it was a mistake to non-tender Hays, who could have combined with Marsh on a cost-effective platoon in left. But no big deal; Marsh is going to get the bulk of the ABs there anyway.

I hope DD signs at least one more good reliever, and retains Suarez, who can either start or relieve depending on whether Painter can assume a spot in the rotation.

[fish]

The only available 3B option to replace Bohm is Bregman, and they can’t afford to sign Bregman without trading both Bohm and Ranger, but then they wouldnt have money to replace Ranger or do anything more to the bulllpen. Ranger means so much to this team in 2025 the only reason to trade him (short of getting another viable piece with longer team control) would be at the trade deadline if they are out of it. Otherwise it’s better to keep him for the playoff run and take the draft pick comp.

[saycheese]

The decision on Hays was because they wanted to upgrade in that area. Remember these non tenders happen so early its hard to have a read on the market. That said they probably said, Worst case for what we got from Hays we can get that from Westin Wilson for less dollars. Right wrong or indifferent that makes some sense.

I do believe they will continue to add arms to the pitching staff. mostly by minor league signings. But if a Carlos Estevez or one of the other 10 or so back end of the bullpen guys is willing to take a short term (1-2yr deal) at little less than market value I can see them doing that.

I still continue to think that guys like Otto Kemp and Gabreil Rincones are going to get a hard look in Spring Training. Kemp at age 25 should be ready to contribute. Coming off the season last year and his Arizona fall league that could be a good bet.

[jimbomill]

if they do trade Ranger or replace Ranger its not going to be with another high priced pitcher who is 3yrs older like Castillo. If they wanted to pay 20 mill plus for a pitcher why not just sign Ranger?

Bingo! Gotta make sure that the guy you're bringing in is BETTER than the guy you're letting go.

[andyb]

The only available 3B option to replace Bohm is Bregman, and they can’t afford to sign Bregman without trading both Bohm and Ranger,

There are other options out there. One could do a platoon with Sosa. One could add to the middle infield and move Turner to 3B. Yoan Moncada is an interesting injury flyer candidate.

There are options out there if they want to be creative and also think Bohm is more of a 2 WAR bat than a 3 WAR bat. And of course if Bohm is dealt, something comes back in that trade.

[zambonir]

In the end, we don't know anything. I personally think they are still going to try and trade Bohm, in hopes of getting back an OF who doesn't make too much money (unless he's traded for a pitcher and they trade Ranger for that). Barring that, they might still deal Crawford for an OF but I'm not sure there is one who would merit that price.

Otherwise, they aren't going to exceed the threshold in the pre-season and other moves will be modest. Platoon OF. No reliever of any note (maybe a minor league deal comeback candidate or the usual cluster of Jose Ruiz types) unless they trade Alvarado. A fifth starter Turnbull type which might be the biggest need unless you really want to see someone from last year's Aug/September group in April (because it isn't going to be Painter).

Or who knows, maybe they turn around and sign Bregman and blow past the threshold (while still trading Bohm obviously).

[Philsmania]

They could always end up resigning Hays.