I think Hoffman is going to get a three-year deal as a reliever or a starter. He can get the same deal as Holmes as a starter and Tanner Scott hasn't set the relief market yet. Not one major reliever has signed actually, just some trades. Chapman is second-tier and Holmes ceased to be one. Romano is actually the biggest signing other Treinen staying with his team.
I still hope Hoffman falls to us, but the odds of that are near zero I suspect with this trade. Who knows.
Hoffman is very underrated, he was probably our best reliever last year and I don’t see much reason why he can’t start (other than the first ~10 seasons of his career)
I think he's properly rated. He was always expected to cost more than Estevez, and teams wanting him to start is also a sign of how highly he's thought of. The fact that they jumped at Romano also says they thought he would be hard/expensive to sign.
Never say never, but they needed an OF, one high end reliever and a 5th starter and they've gotten all of that, with the Luzardo moving being way more than was expected (even if it was at a cost compared to a Turnbull, or just going with what they already had).
Only way I could see them going bigger on a reliever is if they trade Alvarado.
Caba may turn out to be a solid major league starting shortstop, but that is far from a certainty. I have seen many top prospects disappear into oblivion. One thing that makes for a consistently good organization is the ability to know which prospects to trade while they have value and which prospects to hold onto and who eventually become solid ML starters for your team. How the Phillies are doing that now, we will know in a few years.
Luzardo may not ever give the Phillies much, but he certainly has potential. Again, what he does for the Phillies remains to be seen. One thing for sure, Luzardo is more likely to help the Phillies in 2025 and 2026 than Caba. That is why this deal was done.
I agree that one more reliever is very likely to be added to the roster before spring training starts. There is also the chance of additional trades this off season. I don't think DD every is not looking to make a move if he thinks it makes the team and/or organization stronger.
I know Caba's ceiling could be high (and his floor still good as well) but I find it kind of hard to lament the loss of a 19 year-old whose OPS was below .500 in low A (admittedly in late/limited action). Anytime you can trade someone who is that far away (as opposed to Crawford, or O'Hoppe for that matter) it's not a bad thing for a team in the Phillies position.
Still don't understand why everyone thinks they need another reliever, or where he'd slot?
Romano
Strahm
Kerkering
Alvarado
Ruiz
Banks
optional # 7 spot (Lazar)
long/swingman (Walker and like five other candidates)
This team's success has pretty consistently been with less heralded relievers, whether a total dumpster dive like Hoffman or a journeyman like Strahm. As opposed to Kimbrel (who was decent but not elite) or Estevez (ditto) or Knebel or Soto (an All-Star close). And don't even think about the 2020 team. It's just too bad there doesn't seem to be another Kerkering or Seranthony in the wings, though there still could be.
The coaching staff also deserves a lot of credit for how they've tutored and utilized both the relievers and less heralded starters (just not Walker or all those other guys last year alas).
They could use someone who could upgrade ALvarado (which one do we get?) and especially Ruiz and Banks who are middle innings guys. But not worth an overpay.
They should be bringing the "usual suspects" to ST with opt outs, hopefully they can hit on another Hoffman or Ruiz.
Just weighing in on the Jesus trade. I really like this deal. Caba is really young and pretty far away. SS in the farm system was really a strength. Figuring Miller is still there, they still have Saltiban and Rincon. Rincon is a guy I have heard again Mattingly talk about pretty highly. In other words this is a trade from an organizational strength. Boyd is not really anything, the same with McIntosh.
Jesus at worst is a quality 5th starter for us. At best he adds to staff as a solid 3/4 type. Almost like Joe Blanton to the 4 aces. I have to wonder with the Kepler and Jesus additions does that make a deal of a Suarez or even Marsh and Suarez for another quality bat make some sense. Maybe. Wouldn't surprise me if they look in that direction. Kepler can play some CF, so its almost like they could get a RF or LF and slide Kepler into the platoon with Rojas (which might make more sense)
You need middle innings guys to pitch the middle innings! Banks didn't show much last year but he's better in that spot than Soto ever was just in terms of length, and technically should take what used to be Strahm's role before he rose up the ranks (replacing Alvarado really). Ruiz rose from the 7th or even 8th to 5 or 6.
At this point it's purely about the tax. You sign another $10 million reliever he actually costs $21 million.
OK, Ranger is playing for a big Boras contract in '26. Here's hoping he doesn't burn out midseason again. He could be headed to the sore-armed pitcher's home and there will be nothing to sell. Warrants consideration by Ranger and Boras.
The Phils will be keeping Walker and it will be on Walker to show how much talent he has left. He'll likely create his own role from the pen . If that crowds the pen, some less expensive reliever will be cut.
Is Tanner Scott a possibility?
If only it could be as clear as “bring him up when he is hot, Send down when he is throwing batting practice”. He was one of the streakiest relievers because of one simple issue, anything he threw in the strike zone was big trouble. His cutter was great, but ONLY if he could get guys to swing at it when it was low out of the zone, which was suprisinly often.
I would give him a shot on a minor league deal. We will need more than 8 relievers, maybe he could fill a role for part of the season.
He probably still gets a major league deal from someone unless it's more financially prudent for him to take a non-guarantee. He pitched fine last year for the Cubs, with the usual adventures and them playing games with his contract, but then he fell apart finishing up in Houston.
It's interesting a rotation which had no LHPs for so many years will now have three.
Suarez won't move to the pen any time soon, but if everyone stays healthy the path is now there for both a six-man rotation (for a while) and for Suarez and Painter to have more of a swingman role in the playoffs (Suarez hasn't actually made a relief appearance since 2022 but his starts have often been short by design).
So it seems that, right now, if they do nothing else and have gotten the arbitration figures right (and this article is right), the Phillies could still start the season under the "Cohen" threshold.
I'm a bit late here on this, but I really like the Luzardo trade. There are obviously risks given Luzardo's health and given Caba's defense and on base skills, he has a really high ceiling if he can add some strength.
But that's a massive if on Caba and if he's healthy, Luzardo is a legit #2 or #3 starter.
And given that the Phils clearly decided that they weren't going to be able to upgrade the lineup like they had hope, I like they pivoted to a different strategy.
I also love the idea of a six-man rotation once Painter is ready to lighten the innings load of all of the starters so that they hopefully have more in the tank come playoff time.
In my humble opinion Luzardo is at best a #5 starter even if healthy. His advanced numbers stink. His career ERA+ is over 4. If fans think he's a #1 or #2 starter they are going to be sorely disappointed. Hope I'm wrong...
Seems like most people in baseball see him as a 2-3, and certainly not a 5. Health questions, sure. But who doesn't have those? And he's younger and less expensive than most of the #4 caliber FAs we've seen get deals already this year. Manea is 33, has a career 4.00 ERA and just got three years $75 million. Zach Eflin will be 31, has a 4.17 career ERA and makes $18 million this year (though he has outperformed his contract in terms of both health and results). And of course Tai Walker is 32 and has a 4.19 career ERA and we know what he makes. Luzardo is about youth and upside. There is risk, but clearly the team is holding the line at the last threshold, and if he's only a 5, that's actually all they need. And it won't be hard to outperform last year's guys (even Turnbull given he was no healthier/better than Luzardo after his first magical little run).
I see him as a #3 with a shot to grow into a #2 if he stays healthy. I don't get the #5 at all: I see the stats you quote, but confess that I concluded long ago that nothing in baseball analysis is as seriously flawed as relying upon 'career stats' to predict performance over the next couple years. Luzardo definitely was a #5 type at age 22 and 23 and in his bath health age 26 season last year. At age 24 and 25, when he was converting to starting, he looks like a clear #3: 10.5 K/9, 3 BB/9, 8H/9, of which one is a HR and 3.4 FIP. That's not a #5 pitcher. He was not a full-time starter until half-way through his age 23 season.
Anything older than 3 years ago is irrelevant for most baseball players. Especially pitchers.
What I look at is the trends of his pitches, is his velocity falling off? Is his slider less effective? And so on.
https://x.com/MattGelb/status/1871300654590992583?s=1952
Seems a buy low candidate. Had a decent year in 2024 after several mediocre ones.
Seems that the Phillies lux tax pinch has driven them to mine for buy-low candidates. There seems to be sound logic behind all of them. Given the tax situation, I think DD has done well thus far. I like these deals/signings better than the rumored ones. Red flag on Ross is he's only pitched in 2 of the last 5 seasons, although one of the 3 lost years was a voluntary sitout of the covid year.
