The bottom line to me is that the Phillies basically appear to be stuck. They simply don't have enough expendable valuable assets to trade. So, as a result, it's either buy free agents or run it back.
I don't think the difference between Casty and Bellinger is that hard to understand. Nick is going to be 33 years old this season and shouldn't own a glove. Bellinger won't turn 30 until July, can still play CF (as well as both corner OF spots and 1B) and has been both a ROY and an MVP. Both of which are ancient history but so is Nick's time as a true star. Bellinger's also put up 8 BB WAR in the past three seasons to Nick's 2.4.
If you're the Phillies you still want both. If you're another team, the price you are willing to play - or having interest at all - for one or the other is completely different.
What's wrong with running it back, then evaluating at the AS break whether you should sell (everything fell apart), buy (you need one or two players) or the kids have pushed their way into roles (Crawford tears up AAA and forces a promotion, etc.).
The issue with trading Casty at his mildly overpriced salary is that to replace him with something better would cost even more money or prospects. Alternative A is trading him while picking up $10 million in salary to get midlevel prospects. Then we need to fill the starting position and then we might be signing a $20 million player in addition to that $10 million in salary you pick up. Alternative B is trading Casty for a more expensive player and using the salary as part of the offset. But if we have to add prospects to Casty to get Bellinger, is that really worth it. Alternative C is trading Casty to get a younger player. Really hard to do that with including top prospects.
This is why each option of trading Castellanos really leads to trading better prospects or spending even more money. Both of those options may be inferior to just keeping him and adding a LF platoon bat.
Bohm and Rojas and a midlevel prospect for Rooker ?
By midseason the batting order could be ;
Crawford, Turner, Harper, Rooker, Schwarber, Casty, Stott. Realmuto and whoever you put as 3b. That would be a pretty formidable lineup.
BK has some really good ideas.
Turner would have to like the idea. Are the Phils afraid to ask him? Ask him already. Like this: Trea, you're one of the stars on this team and we want you to be fully satisfied where you play, but we'd like you to consider moving to LF. We feel the team could be a level stronger that way. How do you feel about the move? If you dislike it at all, you're our SS.
You don't have to insult the guy with the question. IMHO Sosa is the best IF on the team and he should play SS. Stott is nearly as good a fielder and better than Turner. Sosa has shown he can play 3B, SS and 2B equally well. Then the Phils don't have a crater in the lineup as they do now in LF and they can devote resources elsewhere.
The Phils' talent evaluation scouts have been whiffing for a while going after players with potential and having down seasons. The Phils biggest need is in the pen and they better get a proven arm or two. This is where they should spend a buck.
Not even Boras could sell Walker. Efforts to sell him would be disconnected faster than a telemarketer. He's ours for 2 more years. At the end of the season, it seemed that the Phils and Walker had an understanding that he needed to be rebuilt, in particular, get a lot stronger. He should be on a hellacious conditioning regimen like he's never imagined. He should be motivated to save his career. Let's watch and wait and hope for the best.
This move is a season late. With more rest, JT might play a level better. Marchan could be the catcher of the future, too. I love Stubb's D, the game he calls and his hustle, but he's another .200 hitter. Proved it all last season. Can Marchan stay healthy?
Marchan will be the backup this year or could be gone. He is out of options. They could stash him on the IL for awhile, but really the decision point for him is now. The Phillies could very well choose Stubbs in Spring Training and try to get Marchan through waivers (50-50 to lose him), but if they make that decision they are essentially saying Marchan is not that good anyway.
If you trade Cody Poteet and get Bellinger plus $5M, that's a deal. Wouldn't care about the plethora of lefties as that's a no-brainer
The fact that DD is letting potential targets go off the board suggests he's already talked to Middleton about essentially running it back unless someone "makes him an offer he can't refuse." Don't feel any urgency, which is a good thing - teams get in trouble when they feel they have to make a big move to win this year.
This still feels like DD wants to add a younger, cheaper outfielder. He does not want the salary situation to get out of hand in ways that will limit him in the future. Running it back with tweaks still means the ability to go after an outfielder better than a cheap platoon option is still there.
Some players just aren’t worth what they, their agents or their clubs think that they are. There’s no need to hit the panic button and make questionable moves in order to “win the off season.”
Nothing wrong with a club that easily won their division running it back except that isn’t exactly what the Phillies will be doing. A healthier Harper, Turner and JT improves their fortunes. So does adding a starter such as Painter in order to get away from the fifth starter mess that they had going last year. Until the Braves and Mets show that they are better than the Phillies on the field and in the standings, they aren’t.
That was just not enough money coming back from the Cubs, but it also cost the Yankees very little as a result. And they obviously do not have the same hesitation the Phillies do to bust past the Steve Cohen line (and are under more pressure, being the y are the Yankees and having lost Soto). I was interested in Bellinger but paying Bellinger $45 million in real money (salary + tax) if he's only a 2 WAR instead of a 3-4 WAR would not have been great.
There's still plenty of time and plenty of moves to be made. But if they stay they course and get it wrong, I don't think they will take a step back, I think they'll go crazy at the deadline or next year or both.
I am fine with running it back. This year is just a tough year to try and retool. Their salary commitments (Still 2nd in baseball in salary although the Yankees are hot on their trail) along with where the prospects are in the system it just didn't make sense. Next offseason they have a bunch of dollars coming off the books, but we also should have a better idea on Miller, Crawford, Marchan, Rincones, Chace, Johnson, Abel, Painter, Otto Kemp etc. In other words we have some young guys who are close. How many of them will be ready for that next step. TBD. I do think Painter will be her this year. Same with Marchan if he can make it through spring training healthy and I still think Otto Kemp has an outside shot of breaking camp as a platoon guy in LF as well as being able to play some other positions.
Well, I wasn’t saying Schwarber was bad, just that he is tradeable and it fixes a problem.
Mine was a response to what I took as AF’s “What I would do”, so does this mean you just run it back with minor tweaks or would you make a bigger move. (Nothing wrong with that per se, I just don’t think it will work)
I am honestly confused why people don’t see moving one of Castellanos or Schwarber as helping, but to each his own. I picked Schwarber because I think we can get something for him. By getting Castellanos off the field we win the trade pretty much no matter what.
There still a lot of offseason left. A lot can happen or nothing can happen. JT Realmuto was traded to the Phillies in February, a week before pitchers and catchers reported.
For what's it worth, Vegas odds already have the Phillies behind the NY Soto Mets and Atlanta Healthier Braves for the division and 2025 World Series.
I just don't see how this is at all true. The Castellanos from May 1 to October 1 was one of the team's three best hitters. There were times he carried them (and he was the only one of the four best hitters to not miss time with injuries). He was third on the team in HRs and 4th in RBIs. And even with his slump and poor defense he still hit enough to put up 0.8 WAR, and a 106 OPS+. Granted, we don't know what he'll be like this year and even Weston Wilson had better numbers, but only in a part-time platoon role (which they still don't seem willing to give him even in LF). It is just not that easy to find a good-hitting corner OF who's also a good defender. The Phillies haven't been able to find a good-hitting corner OF period for three straight seasons (Cave/no one in 2022, Merrifield/Hays in 2023 and now stasis for the moment).
Schwarber's not that different from Castellanos either, except even harder to trade for equal value. He's our second-best hitter and as a DH/pending FA, his trade value won't help you replace him. You probably could have traded him straight-up for Bellinger but why would you? He wouldn't have gotten you Tucker. Unlike Nick someone would take his salary but return still wouldn't be high.
Even Bohm is not getting them anything they want, all these other guys are worth less.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8v0ecI5uHA
I still don't subscribe to PHLY or listen/watch podcasts but per the email newsletter, talking about Ranger and Boras, they figure so long as Ranger has a similar season to last year overall (in line with his career ERA and typical 2+ WAR) he's looking at a $20M AAV and will be hard to keep. Of course Phillies have already signaled they expect to lose him (if they don't move him first themselves).
And I guess Ken Rosenthal did some podcast where he says he still thinks Bohm is gone. He also says it's just not Dombrowski's nature to stand pat, though I actually think that is an outdated take, just as that old nickname wasn't really true of Gillick for many years after he got it.