Phillies Magic Number and NL Postseason Seed Thread

[zambonir]

Saw someone tweet this idea already at the Phillies account today

McCarthy again saying the post-season magic number is 1.

[Philsmania]

T Mac is mistaken about the clinch number.

[EastFallowfield]

Phils win tomorrow the worst they could finish is 92-70.

Braves have lost 70 already. So for them to tie the Phils they'd have to win out, which means the Mets would have at least 71 losses, so that's how the Phils get in tomorrow.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

Sorry, in my mind, all that matters this regular season is winning the NL East so I have a one track mind.

[zambonir]

So it's a win number not a magic number.

[zambonir]

To me the East is over and all that matters is the seed.

[EastFallowfield]

And we have the tiebreakers vs LA and MIL now, so our lead over them is one more game than the math of the W/L numbers would make it seem.

[julio]

Sorry, in my mind, all that matters this regular season is winning the NL East so I have a one track mind.

Don't apologize for that, MJS. Winning the division is what you should be focused on. Wild card berths are for "a bit better than mediocre" clubs that hope to get lucky.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

[bkeich]

Number 1 Seed is down to 9 I believe.

(For some reason it is large and bold​) [fixed it for you, bkeich. the # at the start of a line is code for headline. - J]

[zambonir]

yup, like those unimpressive '22 and '23 Phillies.

Of course it's great to win the division but it was diminished 30 years ago not just by the wild card and the schedule change but by the fact that there are now three divisions. It meant more when it was also automatic entry into the NLCS. Our real, non-mediocre goal it the best record in the NL and MLB.

[EastFallowfield]

I'd say 9 for that. Dodgers win out they get to 100 wins, Phils have 91 right now, and the tiebreaker.

[EastFallowfield]

They just decided to pick the closest number that wasn't Stott

[el-pietro]

The Phillies currently have 91 wins.
The Dodgers have 62 losses. Their highest win total they can reach is 100. Phillies have the tiebreaker so magic number for the #1 Seed is 9.
The Brewers have 64 losses. The highest win total they can reach is 98. Phillies have the tiebreaker so magic number for the guaranteed bye is 7.
The Mets have 68 losses. The highest win total they can reach is 94. Tiebreaker is undecided, so magic number for the NL East is 4.
The Braves have 70 losses. The highest win total they can reach is 92. Braves have the tiebreaker, so magic number to clinch a playoff spot 2.
However as has been stated the Braves and Mets play each other three more times, meaning they cannot both sweep and win out.
If the Braves don't sweep the Mets then their highest win total possible is 91. If the Braves do sweep the Mets then the Mets highest win total possible is 91. That means the actual magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 1.
For me the East is the most important thing, but once that is taken care of the Bye/#1 seed are key.

[Philsmania]

They just decided to pick the closest number that wasn't Stott

Scott Kingery is still in the organization.

[Philsmania]

The Phillies currently have 91 wins.
The Dodgers have 62 losses. Their highest win total they can reach is 100. Phillies have the tiebreaker so magic number for the #1 Seed is 9.
The Brewers have 64 losses. The highest win total they can reach is 98. Phillies have the tiebreaker so magic number for the guaranteed bye is 7.
The Mets have 68 losses. The highest win total they can reach is 94. Tiebreaker is undecided, so magic number for the NL East is 4.
The Braves have 70 losses. The highest win total they can reach is 92. Braves have the tiebreaker, so magic number to clinch a playoff spot 2.
However as has been stated the Braves and Mets play each other three more times, meaning they cannot both sweep and win out.
If the Braves don't sweep the Mets then their highest win total possible is 91. If the Braves do sweep the Mets then the Mets highest win total possible is 91. That means the actual magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 1.
For me the East is the most important thing, but once that is taken care of the Bye/#1 seed are key.

Thanks for the explanation! Most models--including the ones I rely upon--say it is 2 but the fact that the Braves and Mets play each other bring it down to 1.

[zambonir]

I thought I posted him did I put it in the wrong thread or never post?

[zambonir]

Oh I did it was just like 20 posts ago already.

yes apparently the computer models can't look at the schedule with enough granularity.

[EastFallowfield]

I still would maintain that the magic number for the playoffs is one only if it’s a Phillies win. Lose out, end with 71 losses, that means the Braves could lose one game and end up at 71 losses. Mets could lose two or three games and be at 70 or 71 losses. We know the Braves have the tiebreaker, and the Mets would have the tiebreaker too because the Phillies lost out which means they lost four more games this weekend to the Mets

[zambonir]

Luckily we won't have to talk about it for much longer either way. Heck, the media is already penciling in Wheeler for his NLDS Game 1 start.