Phillies Magic Number and NL Postseason Seed Thread

[zambonir]

(And now tied with LA for the top seeds. Three up on Milwaukee)

[zambonir]

Barkann also noting that if Phillies play .500 ball the rest of the way Braves (or Mets) would have to go 19-3 to win the East.

[EastFallowfield]

If we win the season series vs the Mets then our magic number vs them is one fewer than vs the Braves?

[zambonir]

Yeah but I don't think any of the calculators are factoring that in (even the ones that use a tiebreaker) since it's not in force yet. Phillies need to go 3-4 against the Mets which means a home sweep would clinch it early. By the time the second series is concluded the number should be in the low single digits (hopefully it will be zero).

Mets have basically stayed where they are relative to the Phillies, both teams were 15-13 in August and are 4-0 in September (they trailed by 12.5 at the All-Star break though).

[kmc1019]

Not sure if posted elsewhere......good breakdown of tiebreaker rules and scenarios for all teams in contention:
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-picture-and-bracket-2024

Key passage: "The Phillies hold a critical tiebreaker advantage over the Dodgers and will clinch it against the Brewers if they win just one of three games in their series in September."

[zambonir]

Would be disappointing if Brewers even catch up at this point. We are three full games up on them so even if we only take one game of that series, would still be three games up on them if they both play at the same clip otherwise.

Of course it would be nice to have home field in the NLCS (and the World Series) but I think the biggest playoff x factor is the division match-up. As of now the first seed would face either Padres or Dbacks; second seed would face either Brewers or Braves. Not sure there is right answer, and there's travel/jet lag to consider as well as quality of opponent.

[zambonir]

Feeling safe here

[EastFallowfield]

[zambonir]

Hard to believe, Harry!

[EastFallowfield]

(I believe the 'clinch a playoff berth' magic number is 11 btw)

[zambonir]

According to this - and maybe it changed since you posted - it's 10 wins (not sure how you'd calculated the loss side for what is still seven or eight other teams.

MLB National League Winning Magic Numbers

I assume this year they won't celebrate clinching a mere playoff spot. Last year it was more of a grey area since division wasn't in reach (and they were pretty much set at #4 too).

[EastFallowfield]

if the Braves win all their remaining games, they finish with 96 wins. (Currently have 66 losses).

If the Phillies win 10 games they're at 96 wins, but if the two teams tie, Atlanta has the tiebreaker, that’s how I landed on 11.

But for Atlanta to win all their games means the Mets lose at least 3 times, so we finish ahead of them in the "Phils win 10 while the Braves never lose" scenario.

[zambonir]

I follow you. I was thinking about all the other teams. But obviously they are all likely to be eliminated as soon as this weekend, and then it will only be the Braves/Mets

[EastFallowfield]

My back of the envelope bad math makes me think the playoff berth magic number is really 8 or 9 since either the Mets or the Braves is guaranteed 2 or 3 losses from their head to head matchup. But hopefully we just chip away at all the magic numbers and I can throw the envelope in the recycling.

[zambonir]

yeah if you start thinking about the remaining schedule it becomes more complicated. Same goes for our magic number over the Brewers for #2 until we play them.

[RolenRules]

Well we need more pics! I want to see JRoll!

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I want to see JRoll!

… and Al Oliver!

[EastFallowfield]

[EastFallowfield]

[Philsmania]

I like how this thread is being executed with current guys and retired number guys like Allen, Bunning and Rollins.