Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[andyb]

The 100 was not meant to be an exact number. Also at the end some of that was against teams that were out of it or after the division was clinched. Even the Braves games the last couple of weeks did not mean that much.

The comment on the league figuring him out was much more about the playoffs. Better opposition of course, but one could also see from the way he was pitched that he really did not have much of a chance at the plate. While I like certain hitters to be aggressive, Rojas was swinging early because he probably did not want to face a 2-strike count. He could not handle high heat as well. So the 100 is just a figurative comparison to say "first time around the league". Remember he also got benched for a few weeks and played heavily against right-handed pitching at times.

Rob clearly loves the defense in CF, but if Pache had hit at all after he came back I think it would have been Pache getting the starts in the playoffs along with Cave if the matchups dictated that.

Answer this question - if you ignored the 164 major league plate appearances that Rojas got, is there anything in his 2023 (or previous) record that suggested he was ready NOW for the majors. The answer to that is a pretty obvious no when you combine the stats and the scouting reports. Scouts always noted the holes in his offensive game, mostly in lack of power but also that his contact skills were still developing (as in not there yet). There was some improvement in AA but not much power when you consider the environment. Then in the majors that K/BB ratio suggests there is work to do on the contact side.

[julio]

On the subject of options, guys on the current 40-man roster who aren't obvious locks to be on the active roster, but who are out of options:

Cristopher Sanchez (OK, he'll make the roster!)
Andew Bellati
Dylan Covey
Rafael Marchan
Rodolfo Castro
Edmundo Sosa (probably on the roster)
Jake Cave
Simon Muzziotti
Cristian Pache

You all may want to factor this into your 2024 roster speculations.

[andyb]

Hall, Cave, Clemens? Guys who are mediocre in the field, and who live or die with their bats...which seem to have holes.

The point was that none of them are good major league hitters. All were much, much better than AA Rojas but they did their work in AAA. I am not endorsing any of them as more than situational major league minimum bench players. Rojas can be more than that but he is NOT more than that today.

[julio]

Fair enough, andyb. The question of Rojas seems more "when" than "whether." (Unless he just utterly fails to progress.)

I guess I wanted to comment on Rhys Hoskins, as well. I don't know whether he'll be back, whether they'll make a QO, or what. But, if he is back, my (humble) opinion on how to use him would be as half of a DH platoon with Kyle Schwarber. Both of these guys are "OK" without the platoon advantage, but pretty much monsters with the advantage. It's a bit steep to carry two guys who have limited use in the field... but if they bring him back, this seems the rational way to use him.

Notwithstanding Bryce Harper's comments, I don't see the Phils going back to Hoskins as a regular first baseman; he's just too much of a liability out there, and his mobility is not going to be improved by the injury and a year of not playing.

[bkox]

Notwithstanding Bryce Harper's comments, I don't see the Phils going back to Hoskins as a regular first baseman; he's just too much of a liability out there, and his mobility is not going to be improved by the injury and a year of not playing.

But the fielding metrics (if they are to be believed) say that Harper was worse than Hoskins. I guess the thought is that Harper could get better with more experience but hes also aging so not sure how much better

[andyb]

Rhys was better on defense in 2022. Hard to know whether that is a quirk in the defensive stats or he got better. I don't think his defense at 1B is the issue. It is more that he'll want to be paid more money than the Phillies should pay him and he forces compromises elsewhere in the lineup with Schwarber really tied to DH.

There is a real case to get a cheap 1B (ideally right-handed) that is nothing more than a platoon bat and then rotate Bryce there half the time as needed. Trading Castellanos would create more balance to get Rhys back, but that might be impossible to do in a way to help the team (i.e. paying Rhys $20 million and Casty $10 million to play for somebody else is a lot).

If only we still had Joey Meneses. Weston Wilson is probably not quite good enough though I could be sold on him as the last guy on the bench.

[julio]

Weston Wilson is probably not quite good enough though I could be sold on him as the last guy on the bench.

Yeah, if that doesn't force them to try to outright, and lose, somebody with more future value.

All of this, of course, will change, when Dombrowski starts making changes - and we know he will!

[zambonir]

I think Rhys could play 50-60 games at 1B. If he comes back and Nick stays you have created a situation where Rhys, Nick and Schwarber all have to give up 30-50 starts if healthy. But that is not a bad thing.

I'd rather see Rhys at 1B 100 times than Schwarber in LF 50 times. I'll say that.

Lundquist had a loooooong run with the Phillies organization including in the minors and under multiple pitching coaches in the majors. Perhaps he sees no opportunity for advancement or perhaps the new-ish pitching regime want someone of their own choosing finally.

Or maybe he told them Kimbrel looked good

The Rojas question has nothing to do with any of those other guys (unless we're still wondering why they didn't pinch-hit for him. I'm not). It's solely about what's best for him. The Phillies already have two credible alternatives (Marsh and Pache) and will also have one that is currently unknown for LF. But it ain't gonna be Cave or Clemens or Weston Wilson.

[zambonir]

Castro is not out of options, they made that clear in how they handled him.

[andyb]

I think Castro fell short of the 20-day limit in the minors for the option to be exhausted.

Pache actually gives them that half season to allow Rojas to grow in the minors if they so choose. I am open to Rojas beating him out of course, but we probably don't want to see him only in a short side platoon role. Pache is fine for that role.

[julio]

Castro is not out of options, they made that clear in how they handled him.

I think Castro fell short of the 20-day limit in the minors for the option to be exhausted.

Spotrac says he is out of options. I'll delve into the transactions records and see what I can find.

[zambonir]

If Spotrac isn't wrong the Phillies really embarassed themselves! But seems more likely they don't get that granular about the days spent in MLB, and default is just that this was supposed to be his last option year w/o that loophole.

[julio]

Spotrac appears to be wrong. By my count, Castro spent 19 days on optional assignment in 2023:

7/16: optioned
8/2: recalled
9/30: optioned
10/2: recalled

The day optioned counts; the day recalled does not. So, 16 days in July, one day in August, one day in September, one day in October.

Sigh. This suggests I should check the option years listed on Spotrac for pretty much everybody... which would be a royal pain. I think I'll only do that if there are questions!

[Austinfan]

Kroon, Dunn, Muzzioti, Hall and Marchan will get chances to win jobs in ST, it's not like Caves, Castro or Clemons locked up anything.
Is Pache a better hitter than Rojas? Rojas at least has more upside, but both may just be placeholders for Crawford.

Crawford will start at Jersey Shore, but if he makes progress next spring, will soon be at Reading. Will in Philly sometime in 2025 if he continues to progress, and platoon with Rojas before taking over CF - a little optimistic, but he makes contact and should develop gap power the next couple seasons as he fills out his frame - the speed and defense are a given.

Can't play Schwarber or Hoskins in the field, nor both Harper and Castellanos in the OF at the same time.
We've seen the value of improved defense, and with pitching at a premium, saving their arms with good defense has extra value above mere defensive runs saved.

I would dump Castellanos, start Marsh every day, keep Harper at 1B, add a LF (Marsh can handle RF) and fake my way in CF - they can carry one weak bat. Hoskins is unlikely to be able to handle 1B next season coming off that knee injury.

[andyb]

it's not like Caves, Castro or Clemons locked up anything.

None of them are on the prospective bench. Marchan will compete and maybe replace Stubbs but that is a wash as they both are not starter quality. There will be a defensive OF backup (Pache or Rojas), a defensive IF backup (Sosa for now) and then one more player. That last spot is probably more of an offensive threat off the bench though ideally somebody who can play multiple positions (IF and OF). Kroon and Dunn and Wilson could compete for that, but guessing they bring in a better bat from somewhere. It is not that important so it will be among the last things the Phillies think about.

We won't get anything from the minors next year other than maybe Marchan in the backup catcher role. That is why we probably sign a bat somewhere.

[andyb]

This suggests I should check the option years listed on Spotrac for pretty much everybody

FWIW Fangraphs Roster Resource seems to have the options right along with updated major league service time. Nice, pretty colors too!

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/phillies

[julio]

Thanks, andyb! I'll check it out, see how much it differs from what I have.

[zambonir]

I appreciate your diligence and fact-checking but I think we probably could have viewed the multiple local media reports that the Phillies were keeping him on the major league roster for two months solely to avoid him going over the limit - and the fact that they optioned him the minute that was no longer a concern, but then still called him back up to be with the major league team in the playoffs despite not being on the playoff roster - as reliable.

I mean, we can't be sure Spotrac's salary info is correct either since their only source for any of that info (except from Atlanta) is also media reports.

[zambonir]

Rojas at least has more upside, but both may just be placeholders for Crawford.

If Crawford and Rojas both reach their ceiling there will be a place for both of them. And those are both still ifs. They may both be looking a lot better than Haseley, Ortiz, Muzziotti and Moniak ever did but I'm sure that was your 2024 OF at some point.

[zambonir]

Rob Thomson says he hasn’t talked to Taijuan Walker yet about the tweets Walker liked. He said their relationship isn’t fractured at all, and that he admires Walker’s competitive spirit.

“I love Taijuan,” he said. He plans to call him at some point soon.

— Alex Coffey ( @byalexcoffey ) October 26, 2023