Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

The bullpen was unusually deep this year. There were injuries but nothing catastrophic; there were weak spots but not to the point of DFAing or hiding anyone on a guaranteed contract (last year Knebel was both disappointing and injured while Familia was a bust).

Before the season it seemed like overkill to have signed Strahm, acquired Soto and signed Kimbrel on top of the guys like Vasquez and Marte and the returning Bellatti and Brogdon. Turned out it wasn't and Hoffman wasn't even in the mix yet. So I guess I'm ready to agree they should tender Soto. Stockpile those arms again and see how it shakes out.

They probably only need to sign one free agent unless they do think Kerkering could use a few months in the minors. I would not be surprised to see Kimbrel back. Sounds like he was popular in the clubhouse and a mentor to the entire pen. But is he ready to accept the role and salary of lower-tier arm?

At the top of balance sheet they've already got:

Alvarado $9 million (a big raise from $3.45; also signed for '25 with club option for '26)
Strahm $7.5 million (last year of contract)
Soto $4.9 million (estimated, last year before free agency)
Seranthony $4.25 million (up from $2.5; club option for $8 million in 2025)

So Kimbrel's $10 million has essentially already been spent on the three increased salaries. Which is not to say they won't sign a free agent but it probably won't be Hader or Jordan Hicks. Another Kimbrel or Strahm type deal most likely. Two other ex-Phillies (Robertson and Matt Moore) among the bigger/aging names on the market along with Chapman. Neris may or may not become available too.

[saycheese]

After a few days to process I am starting to turn my attention to the offseason. This team could resign all its free agents and come back exactly the same way next year and be in the same exact contention to win it all like they were this year, no doubt in my mind. But the question is that prudent? Probably not. So I think we
need to tweak around the edges for sure.

Free Agents.

1. Hoskins Qualifying offer - Aside from Otani I don't think there is a better proven power hitter in free agency. Yes Maybe Bellinger but I do think Hoskins is going to get a deal that is worth more than one year 20 or so million the qualifying offer gives them. My humble opinion, I don't see a place for him right now. Harper is a better first baseman, Casty is as good as if not better than Harper in Right Field, Marsh in left is better than Schwarber, so Schwarber is the DH. Yes we only get a 4th round Comp pick but its less about that and more about fit and what can be done with the 20 plus million. ****If the Phillies are willing to move one of Schwarber or Casty this could change, I don't see it happening but ... ******

2. Nola Qualifying offer - I think he is one of the top 3 or 4 starters on the market. I love Aaron Nola just like I love Hoskins but he most likely draws a 5yr deal which to mean no matter the money is too long. Especially for a guy who has shown the propensity to give up the long ball this year. *** They don't have to replace Nola with another ace see below***

3. Resign Michael Lorenzen - He is not going to hugely expensive I would expect something in the 15 mill per year. His versatility which for some reason Topper didn't use much in the playoffs is key. He can serve as the 4th or 5th guy while Abel get another half year or so in the minors. Then they could move him to the bullpen. or keep him in the rotation if he is pitching well.

4. Sign Jason Heyward - Ok I know he is older but I think he is a good fit as a rotational guy in the outfield and a good bat off the bench. He can still field well. An upgrade over Jake Cave for sure.*I want Marsh in left and Rojas to continue on as the CF, I see nothing but good things coming for Rojas but there will be some tuff righties that using Heyward for would make sense

Bullpen - I think that Kerkering is going to continue to improve and move into a much more important role next year. Not so much Kimbrels closer role I think that should be Alvardo but he and Sir Anthony as 7-8 inning righties Strahm and Soto as the 7-8 inning setup lefties. I would think we will sign a couple of more Jeff Hoffman types this year and hope that one has a Jeff Hoffman type year. I think we are still very strong in the bullpen despite what happened in the NLCS.

Starters - Wheeler, Sanchez, Walker, Lorenzen, Suarez is still a very good starting rotation. With Abel on the near horizen and Painter about a 1 to 1 1/2 years out I am not going out and signing another long term guy. I am however going to reward Wheeler with a new contract with some extra cash and an extra year in it. Now we are going to need to get some more organization depth in the top of the minors starting pitching wise for injury etc. Could a Mead for Sanchez type deal be out there (I know Mead is a top prospect now but the trade has worked out ok for both teams) Maybe a Rincones, or Ricketts or Viars for somebody's for a Sanchez type. We have a lot of young outfielders on the come. We have several Catchers on the come some we have heard of, some like Jordan Dissin are not being talked about.

The rest of the team. I think I would look to get a guy who can catch a little more than Stubbs has. I would like to see Realmuto get a little more breaks either in the DH role or just a few more days off to keep him fresh. Marchan is a good defensive catcher who was hurt most of last year but played well upon his return. Is he ready for a bigger role. Least we forget he just turned 24. I know Stubbs is a clubhouse favorite but.... I think if we can get a Heyward type the outfield should be a pretty good on with Marsh, Casty, Rojas, Pache and Heyward. I like Cody Clemens and think he should be here as reserve as well as Sosa. Schwarber stays as the full time DH.

The biggest thing is to me is this team has the talent. Getting to and winning a WS is so difficult. They need to find it in themselves to not press so much in some of those critical at bats, maybe as Mike Schmidt used to say with two strikes stop swinging for the fences as much and shorten up your swing and get the ball in play. So many runs were left out there with no outs or one out and a runner on third with the next two batters striking out. To me that was the difference in the Diamondbacks series.

Ok my I am off my soap box, I return you to regular scheduled programs

[zambonir]

I think the Phillies would be delighted to give Nola a five-year deal even if they'd prefer 4 with 5th-year option. They'd rather do that than a three-year deal, even.

Rodon (five years, $140 million) is the measuring stick and no reason not to play in that ballpark even if it's $150 (or maybe you go $160 six years for AAV purposes). Gausman got five $110 the year before which is now viewed as low. Verlander (age) and deGrom (injuries) got three-year deals but Nola is much younger and a picture of health (though that could change any time of course).

I just do it, though I see your argument that in the wild card age they could just afford to tread water (and then hope a Scherzer or Verlander becomes available at the deadline if need be).

But I think $15 million on a multi-year deal is too expensive for Lorenzen, I'd rather find a guy at that price or less for just one year (then you can go get a big FA pitcher in 2025 if need be, depending on the Painter/Abel situation). And if you view him as a swingman you want it to stay around $10 million.

I agree you sign Wheeler if you don't sign Nola. But, sign Nola.

I also agree there's little risk in QOing Hoskins. Also not the worst thing in the world if he takes it. You could figure it out from there. He could still be traded mid-season if the logjam was too big. You can't assume it will be (i.e. someone could get hurt).

Definitely plenty of OF candidates out there to fill out the roster if they don't keep Rhys.

Would definitely consider Marchan. Though if they still love Stubbs that much, just play him more. Somehow he still had a slight positive WAR in his limited playing time despite the awful bat. I suppose last year was a real anomaly at the plate, and he's no spring chicken either.

I still trade Sosa, unless you're ready for Clemens to play 3B at least once a week as a LHB and view Sosa solely as a middle IF (but playing time still really scarce there).

[VoteForKalas]

I'd re-sign Nola, keep Lorenzen if possible and let Hoskins walk.

I keep Harper at 1B, Casty in RF and Schwarbs as the main DH.

I'd then focus on trading for or signing a good bat in LF and slide Marsh back into CF.

Rojas needs more seasoning in AAA and could certainly have a bench role later if he improves.

The bench is the other focus - we need a much better PH option and I never thought Sosa was worth keeping so I'd replace him as well.

I'm not sure how they feel about Walker, but it was really weird that they never pitched him and from reports he is not happy. I think we need him or someone as a #3/4 with Suarez; if not what are they going to do with him? Trade him? Strange situation indeed.

Pen is pretty set, but they do not seem to trust Soto either and I'd let Kimbrel go. With Hoffman, Alvarado, SD, Kerkering & Strahm, we have the foundation and need 1-2 other options.

If Nola is back, the rotation also seems pretty set with Walker, Suarez, Sanchez and Lorenzen battling for spots with the pen as the alternate spot.

I'd like to see Rob change the lineup so it is not so top heavy and hopefully the new LF can help lengthen it more. We have a good mix of LH (Harper, Stott, Schwarbs, Marsh) and RH (Turner, JT, Casty and Bohm) hitters. If we get upgrade LF, we could be even better offensively.

[Jazzhead]

Of course, that good bat in left field could be Harper or Casty, with Hoskins re-signed to play first base most days. That leaves Marsh to patrol center assuming Rojas is in AAA to start the year.

I think this approach works especially well if Hoskins takes a one-year deal to help build back his value. If the offense is there and the defense is acceptable, then solid. If not, we have good options in AAA (including Rojas) to play the outfield and Harper can play first. Schwarber remains at DH where he mostly belongs.

I'd target Hoffman to be the primary closer, with Alverado as the main set up guy and SD and Straum for other high leverage matchups. Sosa is worth re-signing, too. Kimbrel I think I've seen enough of.

[zambonir]

Soto and Sosa are both tradeable I think. But I also think Soto's affordable enough - that arb projection is no more than they paid Familia last year, or Brandon Kintzler in 2021, to name two much older and far less effective pitchers - to keep him if they think a second year with Cotham et. all can bear fruit (just as Alvarado continued to get better).

I'm not crazy about moving Marsh back to CF. I think that costs you more runs (along with demoting Sosa) than any new leftfielder adds. Because even if that LF is a big bat he's probably not good defensively (and far worse than Marsh in LF too). If Rojas does start in the minors I still play Pache every day in CF against LHP and maybe once a week against RHP, split Marsh's time between the two, and add a LF who's somewhat better than a bench bat but not a surefire everyday player.

Does the team do end-of-season meetings/interviews (which would presumably be today or tomorrow) or do they just get the heck out of there after losing in the playoffs? I gotta think the Walker thing will be addressed at some point either way. Thomson will apologize for poor communication (if that's true) or just say something very complimentary and neutral (including, perhaps the white lie that he was going to start a WS game, which might also be true) and Walker will apologize/say that unthinking social media activity in the heat of the moment doesn't reflect his true feelings.

[zambonir]

I'd target Hoffman to be the primary closer, with Alverado as the main set up guy and SD and Straum for other high leverage matchups. Sosa is worth re-signing, too. Kimbrel I think I've seen enough of.

Putting aside the fact that this team doesn't typically use a closer (Kimbrel only became that for a combination of unique reasons, including his 400th save, his strong preference for it and injuries) that is absolutely not the role for Hoffman, who is good at both entering a game with men on base and pitching more than one inning (even if it's just four outs). Alvarado and Seranthony would be the guys most likely to pitch the 9th, depending on leverage and match-ups. Strahm could do it too.

[andyb]

Gelb on the offseason. Harper is talking a little like he is going back to the OF but would also play 1B occasionally. Rhys seems very interested in coming back.

“I don’t mind giving them the option, even if (Rhys) does come back, if Rhys needs a day off,” Harper said last week. “Give them the option to put me at first base and they know, ‘Hey, we can put him there at any point and he’ll be fine.’”

How will Phillies reshape roster for 2024? Key questions on Nola, Hoskins,...

Nola seems likely to test the market but the Phillies will have interest in bringing him back or trading for another top arm (Burnes, Glasnow). Trading Casty to make the lineup also mentioned with the reality that he is untradeable unless they pick up lots of salary or take back a bad contract at another position.

[saycheese]

Why are people thinking Rojas is starting in the minors? Kid put up a 2.4 war in 150 abs got the big hit that got them into the playoffs and plays elite defense. Sure he struggled some with the bat in the playoffs but he is a young kid that is only going to get better. He is and should be their everyday centerfielder. Now does that mean he shouldn't get some days off here and there against a tough righty sure, because that is all part of the maturation process. I really do not get the thought process. I am not sure what else he needs to prove in the minors. Yes he probably needs to get stronger and I am sure he will in the offseason. I believe he will continue to get better with the bat.

If you factor out his stats from this year would you take a 300 BA, 75 RBI's 40 stolen bases and 10 home runs, a war above 2, OPS around 775. OBP around 350 from your 9 hole hitter. I would take that and that along with his elite defense.

No reason why Soto shouldn't be back. His projected arb number isn't bad.
Hoffman as the closer Nah, Alvarado has the best closer stuff out of the team. Seranthony at times could do it, I think Kerkering as he gets his feet a little more wet could do it. They have choices, just don't think Hoffman is one of them. Although Hoffman can be used in some other high leverage situations.

[bkox]

The biggest thing we need for Rojas... is an elite bunting coach. Im not sure how someone with the elite speed Rojas has, went almost 2000 minor league PAs without learning how to bunt. The threat of a bunt for someone like him is such a huge advantage... fielders end up playing a step or two in so reaction times are slower on hard hit balls..

Over 500ABs, the difference between a .250 Hitter and a .280 hitter is 15 hits. I believe Rojas becoming a skilled bunter could get him 15 hits a year between bunt singles and hard hit balls past an infielder that was playing in a step or two.

And it could provide a weapon for him against pitchers hes over matched by, but you dont want to pinch hit and lose his defense

[andyb]

Why are people thinking Rojas is starting in the minors? Kid put up a 2.4 war in 150 abs got the big hit that got them into the playoffs and plays elite defense

Because those stats are misleading and based on a small sample size. Add in the playoffs and his OPS was sub 700 and he is just as likely to hit .190 next year as .250. He was just overmatched in the playoffs. He was good in Reading, but that is a park that helps hitters. He really needs at least a half season in AAA.

The WAR is impressive though I think overstated. The offensive WAR going forward will likely be close to zero if one uses standard projections that incorporate his minor league data too. And on defense, while he is elite, the WAR has been the subject of a bunch of articles that really suggest his defensive WAR will settle down on a larger sample. He could be a 2-3 WAR player on defense alone, but he also needs a minor league environment to develop offensively so he can become a 4+ WAR player in a couple of years.

[zambonir]

I think if he can hit .225 and then do what bkox says (to get his average up to .245) he's still obviously a 2-3 WAR player. I just don't necessarily buy the idea that it will break him if he had to continue learning on the job/struggling at the MLB level, especially if there's no pressure on him to hit better right away. I don't imagine Long has even begun to really work with him.

Not the end of the world if he does go to AAA, but also not the end of the world if he starts in MLB and gets sent down. It happens to a lot of prospects and we only remember the ones who fail amidst that trajectory, when just as many if not more succeed.

Spring training performance will likely say something about it, though off-season moves will also tell you what they're thinking. If he does really well it won't necessarily translate to the bigs but it also will mean he wouldn't be challenged by AAA.

[bkox]

If he does really well it won't necessarily translate to the bigs but it also will mean he wouldn't be challenged by AAA

We also have no idea what changes in the ball or the rules or the strike zone will happen in AAA next year. Remember how skewed the hitting stats were this year in AAA because of the automated strike zone.

[zambonir]

Also in that article, Gelb addressed the Walker thing, though only questions not answers.

[julio]

Add in the playoffs and [Rojas'] OPS was sub 700 and he is just as likely to hit .190 next year as .250.

I don't know what to expect from Rojas in 2024, but I think we have to note that, in the post-season, Rojas (and everybody else) was facing the best pitchers on the best teams in all of MLB. No fourth and fifth starters, etc. No Washington Nationals. No Pittsburgh Pirates. It's not too surprising that he struggled (and frankly, that any of our hitters had more difficulty than in the regular season). That's the nature of the post-season.

[zambonir]

And the best relievers too. And a managerial style that treats every AB like it's, well, the playoffs.

Though I also think that part can be overstated, and you just dismiss the post-season as a SSS regardless. Yes, legends are made (and lost) in October, but when a player struggles in two relief outings or one start or five games, you just notice it more than when those things happen as blips amidst 162 games. It's also very easy to just have two or three good games in October and stink the rest of the time without anyone noticing, if you come through at the right time. Rhys kind of did that last year.

[andyb]

But everyone ignores his minor league record. His AA stats are good but not great. They suggest he is learning to be a major league hitter but is not quite there yet. We saw what Hall and Cave and Clemens all did in AAA and they are not more than AAAA hitters themselves.

There was zero reason to expect Rojas was ready when he was called up as an injury replacement. He did well in his first 100 at bats and was great defensively as advertised. The league then figured him out though. It is not as if a 5/42 BB/K ratio even in his good stats suggested he was ready. Add in 1/15 from the postseason.

The goal here is to develop a good major league hitter. He just has major holes in his offensive game (little power, strike zone judgement, can't handle velocity, bunting). He is talented enough to close those holes but he probably will have trouble doing that at the major league level. He should have been benched for the first 7 innings for Cave at times in the postseason. Pache might have lost years of development by being rushed to the majors. He was the right callup for the Phillies when they did it. That is very different than suggesting he was ready.

[andyb]

MInor coaching changes for next year. No idea what it means.

The Phillies announced that bullpen coach Dave Lundquist and assistant hitting coach Jason Camilli will not return. The remainder of the major league coaching staff will return in 2024.

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) October 26, 2023

[bkox]

He did well in his first 100 at bats and was great defensively as advertised. The league then figured him out though

Actually... this isnt true unless you count the post season. His Last 50ABs in the regular season were better than his first 100.

[julio]

But everyone ignores his minor league record.

Not everyone. I noted I have no idea what to expect from him in 2024.

What we do know is that Rojas is a world-class defender. As such, he isn't going to have to be a great hitter. I don't think it's unreasonable to suspect that he can develop into enough of a hitter to keep him in a lineup, given his presence in CF. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean "from Opening Day in 2024."

Hall, Cave, Clemens? Guys who are mediocre in the field, and who live or die with their bats...which seem to have holes. Hall and Clemens each have one option year remaining, and that's the only reason why either of them may remain in the organization in 2024. Jake Cave is out of options (per Spotrac), and heading for arbitration (3rd time). My guess is he's headed for the waiver wire and an outright, if not claimed (assuming he's not just non-tendered).