Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

I still think it depends on Harper. He'll decide where he wants to play. He seems to like 1B. And he also might want Hoskins back which would mean returning to the OF. But that's a defensively weaker team too (an already-declining Harper going back to RF, a negative if not-as-bad-as-people think-he-is Hoskins at 1B).

We shall see what the Phillies really think of Rojas. I'm still not convinced Pache makes it to Christmas (if not the pre-Rule 5 cull). That would be on obvious tell that Rojas is remaining on the big-league roster.

[andyb]

Do you think Harper would actually say he hates playing 1B? He realizes the team needs to make the decision of where he plays for the good of the 2024 team. Baseball Reference has Harper at -0.9 dWAR for this season and he only played 36 games. So he is NOT a good defensive 1B now. Probably not as good as Hoskins and we could conceivably sign a good defensive 1B too.

Harper will certainly get better at 1B, but he is not that good now and it is not at all clear the Phillies are worse defensively overall with Harper in the OF unless they sacrifice offense to put both Rojas and Marsh out there. Offense matters too on a slugging team that just scored 2 runs in an elimination game.

[JoefromPocono]

Burning question going into the offseason...What do we do with Scotty Jetpacks? lol

[zambonir]

I don't think Harper is going to say anything publicly and it's also not clear what he might prefer. I think we all assumed he'd be dying to get back to the OF but there has been some talk that he's enjoyed 1B and the way he was involved more.

That's pretty startling to me, actually, that he graded out so badly, but (as with people overrating Bohm and Castellano simply because they make a few memorably good plays and underrating Hoskins simply because he didn't, I get it).

But Harper has an incredible amount of power internally. They run signings by him. He lobbies for certain players. Behind the scenes it will be discussed. Like I said, I just wonder how it will be framed, and in what order. i.e. he could easily send word that he's hoping they re-sign Rhys and he expects to go back to the OF (and then they have to discuss which corner and what to do with Nick). Or the team might not QO Rhys and then that will start the conversation with him about whether they are looking for a new 1B or an extra OF.

[allentown]

The reason to trade Castellano is age and contract, in order to get a younger guy and save $. I don't think he's tradeable if that is the goal. Even if you asked for nothing back in return, I don't believe there is a team willing to take his contract. Best value is to keep him and hope he has a good year with the possibility of a trade deadline deal, depending upon how Phillies and Castellano are doing at that time. An OF of Marsh/Rojas or Pache/Harper with Pache and Castellano in the mix is fine. We have no strong rookie candidates.

[andyb]

Always useful to look at Cot's contracts. We are about $7 million under the CBT threshold assuming arbitration awards and not replacing Nola or Hoskins.

MLB Philadelphia 24

And the MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections:

Jeff Hoffman (5.084): $2.1MM
Ranger Suarez (4.112): $4.7MM
Gregory Soto (4.102): $4.9MM
Jake Cave (4.071): $1.4MM
Edmundo Sosa (3.140): $1.7MM
Dylan Covey (3.138): $1MM
Garrett Stubbs (3.120): $900K
Alec Bohm (3.106): $4.3MM

Guessing we don't offer Cave at that price. Think about Soto, Sosa, Covey, and Stubbs. Definitely offer Hoffman, Suarez, and Bohm.

[zambonir]

You'd have to pick up about half his contract. But that still gives you $10 million AAV to play with on a different player (even if that's Hoskins), plus some lottery tickets in the trade return. I don't see how you can hope he has a good enough year to be particularly attractive at the trade deadline. Yeah he made the All-Star team this past year but then fell apart for a while. A repeat of this season barely makes him a valuable DH on the trade market. And there's a much better chance that his 2024 will look like 2022 than 2021.

It will just be interesting to see what they do. They won 90 games. Losing a playoff series isn't a referendum on the overall quality of the roster (and losing to Miami wouldn't have been either). But Dombrowski has made big moves every year he's been here. Is this going to be just the equivalent of his first season (when all he did was re-sign JT and Didi) or will it be like the last two (multiple FA moves and trades between them).

A get back under the CBT year would definitely not play well with the hoi polloi. Or the players, I expect.

[Philsmania]

Considering how up and down, hot and cold, got it one year but doesn't have it the next relievers can be, I would be inclined to hold on to Soto. I could easily see him having a strong bounceback season next year.

[Jazzhead]

Considering how up and down, hot and cold, got it one year but doesn't have it the next relievers can be, I would be inclined to hold on to Soto. I could easily see him having a strong bounceback season next year.

Agree. Soto has the tools to dominate, as well as true closer experience. For $4.9 million, I think he belongs on the roster.

[zambonir]

I don't think Soto had a down year though. I think that's just who he is, and he was never actually that good. He just happened to be the closer on a bad team. He's still kind of a project, like Alvarado was, more stuff than pitching ability. But Alvarado only made $1 million and $1.9 million his first two years. Soto's service time and closing pedigree make him overpaid, and his closing experience is in reality worth about as much as, well... Craig Kimbrel's.

Not that the Phillies can't afford it, but they really need to feel like he can take another step for $4.9 million. He gave them 0 WAR this year. Even Covey had 0.5.

But along the same lines of relievers being up and down/hot and cold, I might still bring Kimbrel back. But at half the money so that he's A) not the default closer and B) releasable. However, given he actually had a very good season (and even made the All-Star team) I'm sure he'll do better than that.

MLBTR also predicts Hector will decline his $8.3 million player option for the Astros; would you give him $10 million?

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

I don't know how you folks do it - CBP is still warm, and you're talking about next year. No criticism, just pointing out your love for the Phillies baseball, and your ability to move on. With a loss like yesterday, I can't even begin to get interested in this team until maybe December or January. It's hard to do this year after year, especially when the team gets so close. I think it's easier when the team doesn't make the postseason.

[bkox]

So Walker posted a cryptic message on twitter about disrespect. Media is assuming its because he was never given a chance to pitch in the playoffs

I dont know if it is or not... But it does make you wonder how Walker is feeling. Lorenzen also finished the season cold and got chances. Will this be a problem between Walker and the Phillies?

Which Phillie is ticked off at Rob Thomson?

[Austinfan]

If they resign Nola, Walker is probably gone. He'd be the 5th starter and only if they didn't bring back Lorenzen.
Probably could garner some assets, 3x18 isn't bad for a SP who won 15 games.

[zambonir]

I was actually having the opposite thought, that it is so much easier to jump into hot stove mindset when you still have success and optimism. From 2012-2020 you didn't even have to wait for the season to end. It hasn't been year after year, it's just been two years. And last year was still a fantastic achievement, with a flag that will fly forever. And this year there was still a lot to enjoy and be proud of even though it's a very bitter taste. But that just makes me more eager to see what they do to try and stay good.

It's also hard not to do it given the context of the roster - i.e. the teams' two best and longest-serving homegrown players both possibly leaving at the same time.

I don't blame Walker if he's mad, though you would think they would have communicated with him. It seems like they didn't want to disrespect him by leaving him off the playoff roster but putting him on and not using him was an even greater dis. I don't think it's fair to compare him to Lorenzen though as Lorenzen had already been converted to relief, and had experience in that role. The killer blow was when Sanchez got the start. And given the style of managing we saw in this post-season a bulk/long guy wasn't part of the plan. Especially not with Walker's first-inning track record.

It's probably something that goes away in the off-season. If it was the NBA of course, he'd demand a trade

What this really highlights is how much the Phillies do still need to sign Nola. Walker is still going to be an acceptable #4 but he's not a #3, let alone a #2. Ditto Sanchez and Lorenzen (who probably isn't coming back).

[zambonir]

Ha, cross post. I doubt they want to bring Lorenzen back and he'll find a better deal somewhere else. And Walker's trade value wouldn't be that high. They're gonna need six starters regardless, as in reality you always end up needing seven or eight. Nobody but Abel even a consideration for depth right out of spring training.

[Austinfan]

Right now I have to think Sanchez is ahead of Walker, better performance, more upside.
Both have questions whether they'd be effective over more than 20 starts, but Walker has proven the answer is no, the jury is still out on Sanchez.

[zambonir]

Agreed, but they are both 4 or 5, not 3 or 2. And Ranger has to both stay healthy and start going deeper into games to take another step. Regardless, Phillies need them all, even with Nola or Lorenzen (if they sign both, different situation).

[Dirk41]

Walker also liking posts criticizing Thomson. Would you be be giving him away at this point?

[zambonir]

They'll get through it. He will probably have to address it publicly (both of them).

[LoneStarPhan]

I hope the decision to throw Kekering into the October cauldron did not break his psyche. He clearly pitched scared in the NLCS. He has stuff to blow guys away, but if starts nibbling all the time, he's just going to be another Wayne Gomes.

If it does break him, he probably did not have the makeup to be a successful big league reliever. I think he will be fine next season.

They will need to add two starters to the mix during the off season. Wheeler, Suarez, Sanchez, Walker plus two. One needs to be the number two behind Wheeler and the other in the 3 to 5 mix. If Nola returns, that fills the second spot in the rotation. Most likely they will need more than six sometime during the season. Maybe that will be Abel or another starter from the system or they could be looking to add a starter at the trade deadline. I also expect they will add a couple relief pitchers to the bullpen by FA signing or trade during the off season.