Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[Philsmania]

I have a feeling 2024 will be a retooling year. Nola gone, new bench, mostly new bullpen. 82-80.

[zambonir]

I don't think so. I think Nola's back and most of the bullpen is already signed (Strahm, Alvarado, Seranthony) or controlled (Hoffman, Soto, Kerkering, even Covey if they want). Maybe let Soto go (non-tender). Kimbrel will still be replaced with at least a mid-range vet, Hoskins probably gone. So then the question is do you merely change up the bench (which you could definitely do, every single guy) and add one new part-time bat (OF or, if Bryce stays there, 1B) or do you be more aggressive? Casty's still got a lot of salary to eat, and Bohm's not going anywhere.

Unless they want to get under the tax it will be another year of going for it. If it's not a blank check for Nola they will sign one of the other guys (I'd still rather not to do that though). And if they are an 82-win caliber team that means they can also be an 86-win caliber team, and those teams go to the World Series. If anything the smart play would be to get under the tax and don't be too aggressive trying to catch the Braves, and then be more aggressive at the deadline for a change.

If they figure out how to play decently in April and May they'll also be ahead of the last two years.

[Austinfan]

I think they have to shift their offensive focus, too reliant on the long ball, too undisciplined against pitchers who nibble. Too many Ks swinging at balls outside the zone - helping pitchers out. Nothing drastic, just move to a more balanced model.

I'd love to move Castellanos, he'll probably never repeat this season, the league is well aware how to attack him (breaking stuff away), but it's not just him, Turner is pull happy, Bohm expands the K-zone.

It's not that you have to have nine disciplined hitters, but you need enough to get on base, to force up pitch counts, to make pitchers show their stuff early out of the pen so the team can see what he has that night. Zona did a far better job of fighting off pitches and working the count. And they were content to settle for singles in a close game and use team speed.

Marsh needs to play everyday, Rojas has to bunt until his hands bleed, and sit in the batter's box and look at pitches off the machine until he knows what the K zone looks like, etc.

[Dirk41]

Does Rojas start the year in the minors?

Marsh bring you another quality starter?

[Austinfan]

Why would you trade a 25 year old plus fielding LF who seems to be just entering his peak offensive years?
These are the kinds of guys you build around.

[andyb]

50-50 Rojas starts in the minors. He really needs a half year of AAA offensive development.

No idea how they replace Nola but they will. Good chance they resign him and I think they hang onto Marsh because he could be the CF again. I guess we'll see if they are serious about the Japanese pitcher if they can't agree with Nola.

One question I would throw out there that I asked last year too: Should we switch Stott and Turner defensively? It may still be so close that it does not matter much, but certainly it is something to evaluate. We have got 2 or 3 years before anyone in the minors like Bergolla would be ready.

[Austinfan]

Stott is golden glove at 2B, not sure Turner would be close if he moved over, but Stott wouldn't be an upgrade at SS.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Rojas was probably pressing in the post season, I think intensive coaching might be more valuable than a half season in AAA, he got a good amount of ML exposure, he has the bat speed to hit, and he will fill out the next couple years to some extent and develop gap power. But he needs to get out of the "hit your way off the island" mindset.

Crawford and Miller might start the season in Reading, and could quickly advance.
Abel, McGowan, McGarry, Baker et al should be the Lehigh pitching staff.

But most of the best talent will be at Clearwater and Jersey Shore to start the season.
So you're probably looking at 2024 and 2025 as "hold the fort" until reinforcements arrive.

[andyb]

There may be nobody currently in the minors (now that Kerkering is in the majors) that plays a significant role on the club next year. Crawford might start at Reading but I would guess Miller is going to split the year between Clearwater and Jersey Shore. Probably start at Clearwater because he has to learn a new position (3B). None of the 3 big pitching prospects seems likely to play much in Philly. McGarry had a mediocre year. Abel needs a year in AAA. And Painter probably won't pitch more than a handful of innings in September or later in Arizona.

Rojas of course was pressing. Because he is simply not ready offensively. Hot early before the league had a book on him. Really think they go with Marsh and Pache to start the year. Defense will be fine with those 2 on the roster and we still don't know where Harper will play and that could affect the ability to carry Rojas on the roster.

[zambonir]

I'm skeptical that Rojas will start in the minors, but doing so would allow you to sign a bigger bat for LF, and worry about how all the pieces fit together in July. I have a hard time believing the OF is Marsh and Pache. Pache is no more ready to play every day against RHP than Rojas is. Great guy to have on the bench and starting against LHP if you don't have Rojas though.

A lot depends on Harper. But then, so does who they sign. Has this team ever not signed or re-signed a player Harper wanted them too?

Hoskins or no Hoskins I just wonder what the chicken/egg situation is going to be. Will Harper commit to a position and they will build accordingly, or will his position depend on how they build.

AF is not wrong that they could use one more disciplined high-OBP bat in there though. Like, if you could swap Castellanos for, oh, I dunno... Rhys Hoskins. In the end Nick didn't have that great a year and it wasn't even as good as Rhys's 2022, by a lot if you go by WAR (and about the same by OPS+). If Harper does want to play RF (or you can sign a different OF) and there's a deal to be made for Nick (while picking up $ obviously) I'd do it.

Not worried about moving Turner to 2B yet I don't think. He had a rocky season in general, hopefully the fielding will bounce back just as the hitting did.

I do think it all starts with the bigger philosophical question. Is the goal to win more regular season games or is the goal to just get to the playoffs again, and if the latter, what else can you do to get a better result. We're not even talking about these Game 6 and 7 failures if a few relievers don't fall apart, but you can't ever guarantee a few relievers won't fall apart.

[Philsmania]

I hope the decision to throw Kekering into the October cauldron did not break his psyche. He clearly pitched scared in the NLCS. He has stuff to blow guys away, but if starts nibbling all the time, he's just going to be another Wayne Gomes.

[Jazzhead]

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it"

That's largely how I feel. Baseball's a sport where the best teams still lose a third of the time. We had leads in three of the four games we lost, including two in the 7th inning or later. I suspect Kimbrel will receive most of the Phans' ire, but Turner's and Castellanos' bats went cold at the worst possible time.

I'd concentrate on re-signing Nola and perhaps trading Castellanos to free up some salary to do so. With Harper in right, we'd have a spot for Hoskins, especially on a short term deal where he can re-establish his value. I'd consider resigning Hoskins even if we keep Castellanos. We'll also need a replacement for Kimbrel, but it doesn't have to necessarily be a closer because I think Hoffman can fill that role.

Our goal next year should be to beat the Braves for the eastern division crown. I want a pennant, and a division championship at least secures that. It stinks to win two series, one against the best team in the league, and have nothing but "wild card winner"to show for it.

[zambonir]

I feel like the pain of Games 6 and 7 have made Kimbrel a distant memory.

The playoffs aren't really that different from the regular season. One blown save, one lesser outing by a starter, a few slumping hitters for two games - they all cost you a series. In this case it was just the biggest one. But it does feel like the Phillies got outplayed and outmanaged (less so Lovullo vs. Thomson tactically than the fact that their hitters and pitchers adjusted and got better as the series wore on).

I also wouldn't let the mid-tier offensive players off the hook. Harper and Schwarber did their part. Turner was the best hitter in the first two rounds. But Castellanos went missing and Stott and Bohm did not do enough for where they were in the order. And of course as we long feared, Nola had one non-ace type start in him.

The Phillies don't need to free up salary to do anything, and if they trade Nick it probably won't free much up (since they'll still be paying half of his). You trade him to trade him, and upgrade in some other way.

It is too bad there's no pennant this year (unlike last year) but I don't see how this team can close the gap with the Braves. It will be hard enough to just win 90 games again given the aging core. They'll be fighting off the Marlins too though the front office dysfunction there might be our friend.

[Austinfan]

Don't sleep on Miller, He dropped due to the wrist injury, but seems to be fine, and a year away and he may tap into that power. He's a SS eventually moving to 3B, an easy transition if he has the arm. Would have been a much higher pick without that injury. 6'2 205 at 19, so unlike Crawford, he's already close to physically mature, will get stronger but not much bigger the next 2-3 years.

Phillies need to hit on Crawford and Miller, Stott is the best player they've developed internally for a decade.
They need to develop some homegrown elite talent, hopefully by 2026 we'll be talking about these two and Abel and Painter, and not another big money 30 year old FA.

[andyb]

I don't think it is hard to see an OF of Harper, Marsh/Pache, and Castellanos left to right. It does all depend on Harper and what they do at 1B. There just should not be a physical reason why Harper cannot play the OF again.

[andyb]

Who is sleeping on Miller? We all acknowledge he is a top prospect. The Phillies have said he is a long term 3B. It is just going to take a few years. There is zero reason to think he would start at Reading.

[Austinfan]

My bad, forget he was a HS kid. Yeah, he'll probably start at Clearwater, though it depends on FI work in the fall and ST in the spring. It would be nice to see a Phillies prospect shoot up the system instead of having to hit every rung.

[Jazzhead]

It is too bad there's no pennant this year (unlike last year) but I don't see how this team can close the gap with the Braves.

Not playing like squat the first two months of the season would go a long way. From June onward, the gap between us and the Braves wasn't all that insurmountable.

[zambonir]

Well sure if Harper is in the OF that's a very different situation. And then you either keep Hoskins or sign a 1B. But if Harper is at 1B, Pache is not an everyday OF, at either spot, and you have to go get a LF instead of a 1B.

But I also still think that if Harper is on the OF you could let Marsh and Castellanos split LF (with Marsh playing CF). That would mean reducing Nick's playing time though he could probably still DH once a week. Or learn to play 1B himself.

And Rojas is still just as good if not better an option as your part-time CF/4th OF. Pache would likely benefit from a AAA reset just as much as Rojas needs to be there for the first time, except with Pache that's (literally) not an option. The Phillies can afford to play Rojas every day, the only question is if Rojas would become a better hitter with more time in AAA instead of learning on-the-job in MLB. But it's still hard to argue with the value he adds even as a .650 OPS guy.

I just think an OF of Marsh/Rojas/Harper is probably fine and of itself. Trade Nick and keep Rhys or trade Nick and get a new 1B or keep Harper at 1B and replace Nick.

Not playing like squat the first two months of the season would go a long way. From June onward, the gap between us and the Braves wasn't all that insurmountable.

Fair point. And no World Series hangover this year. But it was also the injuries to Harper and Hoskins and I'm afraid that's just a thing that happens to a team when so much of its core is over 30. The Braves continue to have youth more on their side (including when young players get hurt and come back more easily/quickly. Even if Bryce still seems like some kind of miracle). If Harper, Schwarber, Turner and Casty all show up in the spring next year it would be a very different start. It was May that really killed them this year (along with the first four games).

[andyb]

Never said Pache is a starting OF outside of a platoon. There just is no reason to not consider Harper in the OF and it probably depends upon whether the team chooses to add a 1B (Hoskins or other).

Everybody is just overrating Rojas' offensive current talent level. An 845 OPS in Reading rarely translates into anything near 700 at the major league level. He could be a positive force with a 650 OPS in CF with his defense, but that is just not the player you try to develop. Rojas with a 725-750 OPS is a star. There is little chance that is what he is now though. He needs to improve because he could easily be sitting at a 500 OPS next season in May when they would have to send him down.

[Austinfan]

Think they have to start shipping over 30 players out. Otherwise they'll soon be an expensive aging team that's ripe for a series of injuries and dings that buries them.

Marsh should play every day, he hit lefties better at the end of the season, but won't improve until they commit to him, .800+ OPS and plus fielding LF at 24 is a player you want going forward.

Don't want to see Schwarber or Hoskins on the field, I think Harper is already a better 1B and should improve.
If you move Castellanos, filling RF is an issue in the short-run, Caves deserved a shot but didn't take advantage of it.