Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[Austinfan]

Moniak at 25 looked like he was fnally becoming a player before he got hurt.
Haseley at 23 looked like a future starter, then has regressed ever since.
Ortiz was a long shot years ago with that K rate, unfortunately, after a promising year, De La Cruz is following in his footsteps.
Muzzioti may still make it, he faded this season, but that was the first time in four years he played a full year.

[zambonir]

Thomson and DD did indeed speak today

https://www.mlb.com/video/live-phillies-press-conference-89868

Freakin' Eskin asked why Thomson is still going to be the manager this year (claiming to air out the "nonsense" you hear in the media rather than being a source of it himself). Personally I'd have asked if they were going to extend him (since 2024 is his final year).

[zambonir]

Those are reasons why those four players didn't work out. There will be reasons why other players didn't work out.

[BostonRoss]

I feel that Harper was about the same level defensively at 1B in 2023 as Hoskins was in 2022. But I think Harper improved as the year went on and would continue to improve if he gained more experience as the regular 1B in 2024. And I suspect Hoskins will decline defensively, because he is coming off an injury and is a year older than his last mediocre defensive season.

I also think that Harper was as bad a defensive outfielder as Castellanos before his injury and would be worse in the OF in 2024. So, if Hoskins is on the 2024 Phillies, when he is in the lineup he would be replacing Harper, Schwarber, Marsh, or Rojas (or perhaps a new player).

1. When he replaces Castellanos in the lineup, the offensive gain is probably small and is probably offset by Harper replacing Castellanos in RF.
2. When he replaces Marsh (presumably against a LHP), there is a clear offensive gain, but also a sizeable decline in defense going from Marsh to Harper in LF.
3. When he replaces Schwarber in the lineup (presumably against a LHP), the offensive gain is probably significant, and if Hoskins is the DH, no change in defense level.
4. When he replaces Rojas in the lineup, the offensive gain is probably significant and is probably offset defensively by Harper replacing Rojas in RF.

So only scenario 3 provides significant gains, and that happens only against LHP. To me that is not worth $20M. I think a different $20M player would be better, probably a decent hitting OF who isn't terrible on defense.

[zambonir]

But what if the everyday line-up was:

Castellanos/Marsh LF
Pache or Rojas/Marsh CF
Harper RF
Hoskins 1B
Schwarber DH

You would still play Castellanos against RHP most but not all of the time.

It would need some buy-in from all the veteran hitters to play a little less but if they really want Rhys back w/o one of them getting traded, they'll do it.

I don't think it will happen though. There's a three-year deal out there for Rhys, and Phillies are better off adding an OF. However, if Harper really does intend to play RF mostly you still need a 1B instead.

I also think your eye test for Harper and Hoskins is not sufficient. If we don't think those guys are good enough defensively (at either position in Harper's case) neither are Castellanos and Bohm (and neither of them actually outhit their defense as well as Harper and Hoskins do either).

[saycheese]

Somebody did ask that question both of DD and Topper. DD said hasn't thought about it either way, season just ended two days ago. Thompson said doesn't care about contracts, they take care of themselves either way.

My guess is they will extend him another year beyond next at some point this offseason

[saycheese]

I don't think you platoon Castellanos and Marsh. I just don't see how Hoskins fits back without one of Schwarber or Casty being gone. Dombrowski was very non committal on Hoskins, he clearly said Nola was the number one priority and if they can't get him sign getting another top of the rotation guy is.

[zambonir]

Yeah I guess it doesn't really work. I mean, they need a RHB in LF to play against lefties some of the time but Casty needs more ABs than that. But the same issue exists if Harper does prefer to play RF. And if he also prefers to have Rhys back, well....

I'd just rather have Hoskins for $60 million over the next three years than Nick. But you are de facto paying Rhys another $30 million that would still be going to Nick on his new team.

I started watching it after i posted, DD said Rojas's job is not guaranteed, and that if they didn't sign Nola they'd be aggressive about replacing him. Haven't watched Thomson yet.

[Dirk41]

Let's triple down and sign Matt Chapman.....

[zambonir]

I guess you are kidding but if you did that would you trade Bohm or put him at first?

[BostonRoss]

The eye test is never sufficient, but I don't know what the defensive metrics say about Harper's play at 1B and whether it improved over the time he was there. Or whether the sample size is large enough to evaluate Harper at 1B.

But the metrics do say that Rhys has not been good defensively, and that Harper has been bad in the OF the last couple of years. The problem is that with Schwarber at DH, at least against RHP, there is no way to avoid making the OF defense worse by moving Harper out there when Rhys plays 1B. Whenever Rhys plays, the OF defense takes a pretty big hit.

Regardless, unless Thomson changes how he manages, Harper, Schwarber, and Castellanos will play nearly every day if healthy. That could be more problematic as they continue to age.

[andyb]

The metrics are pretty bad. Worse than Hoskins by a pretty large amount. Guessing he has improved over time, but there is a learning curve and he is just starting. Harper has been inconsistent in the OF. Bad the year before he came to Philly. Pretty good in 2019. Below average but not awful in 2021. Did not really play in 2022.

Harper is acceptable in the OF. The reason to put him there is to put a good bat at 1B. He is worse at 1B defensively than he is in the OF (and LF would be easier than RF if that is where he moved).

[zambonir]

What metrics are you referring to? According to DRS Harper was +1 this year. Kody Clemens was +2. And I believe both of those numbers reflect the limited playing time. Carlos Santana led majors at +11.

Last year Hoskins +3, when the way people talked about him presumed he was negative.

Harper's UZR was 0. Hoskins 1.0 last year. That 1.0 was ahead of at least 10 big-name 1B (including Alonso, Freeman, Olson).

It's certainly not a bad idea to keep Harper at 1B as he's not going to get any better in the OF. The desire to bring Hoskins back - and the difficulty trading Castellanos - probably not more compelling than adding a new OF. And a Castellanos/Marsh/Harper OF is also not that defensively compelling.

Who are the 1B options if Harper goes back to OF and Hoskins isn't re-signed?

[Jazzhead]

Freakin' Eskin asked why Thomson is still going to be the manager this year (claiming to air out the "nonsense" you hear in the media rather than being a source of it himself). Personally I'd have asked if they were going to extend him (since 2024 is his final year).

I've got a bottle of 13-year old Rosebank ready to open as soon as I hear that Eskin is no longer on the radio. When I drive to the shore on Saturday mornings, I won't turn on WIP until 10:00 when he's off the air.

[Jazzhead]

Who are the 1B options if Harper goes back to OF and Hoskins isn't re-signed?

I think the bottom line is that Harper is adequate at either 1B or a corner outfield spot and will play wherever the team needs him. If Hoskins isn't re-signed it will be Harper at first. But if Hoskins is re-signed I think Julio is right that he will primarily DH if there's any sign that his mobility is impaired. And he really would make an effective platoon with Schwarber at DH.

As for Rojas, his value is that he has one truly elite skill - the ground he covers in CF. His bat is essentially irrelevant, for example, if Thompson wants to take his chances with Schwarber in LF on most days (so Hoskins or Harper can DH, for example). In that scenario, Rojas is valuable, if not essential, even if he barely clears the Mendoza line.

[zambonir]

Like Ross says, there's little indication Thomson and the Phillies are ready to limit the playing time of their highest-paid players, even if that might be a good long-term strategy. And you can't really "platoon" Hoskins with Schwarber as Hoskins would only get like 40 starts that way (and Schwarber isn't even going to sit that much, let alone get PH for).

There is also (per Dombrowski yesterday) every indication that Harper will get to decide where he plays, which will then dictate the team's needs. I think what he has already said publicly (that he wants to be in the OF but will happily play 1B some of the time) is probably where it ends up.

So, that means either Hoskins is the 1B (you can give him 10 or 20 games at DH but not much more than that) or someone else is.

I'm sure it will still be a conversation with Harper. And if they want to get a particular OF he'd probably sign off on it.

I suppose Bellinger is probably the best person the Phillies could sign instead of Hoskins given his versatility. But that's also a higher-end move than they are probably considering.

[fish]

I think the bottom line is that Harper is adequate at either 1B or a corner outfield spot and will play wherever the team needs him.

True, though I wonder if he ever feels it in his back when he's bent over playing in the dirt. Granted, his swing is 1,000 x more stressful on the back than bending down to play D at first.

[Austinfan]

If Harper insists on playing RF, they HAVE to trade Castellanos and bring back Hoskins.
Even if they have to take a bad contract back, as long as it's a position of value (RH OF, 5th SP, etc. that would fill a hole, even if overpriced), they'd be better off.

[Callison]

aka "The Recovery Thread" ...

Hoskins has been a great Phillie, but the way the team has developed, IMHO there's no role for him next season.

I'd prefer to keep Harper at 1B. Apparently the stats say he's not that good there, but I think that's the best position for him. The one thing that concerned me when he started to play 1B was how he would handle crap throws from the IFs. He looked pretty good. Even if you're against it, as the Phils look to improve, it looks like there are several OF upgrades available but few 1Bs. There are surely some faster OFs. Bellinger might be expensive, but he looks like he would fit this team like a hand in glove, and I hope the Phils sign him. If you're the Yanks or the Dodgers and you see top talent available, you go buy it and suffer luxury tax with a smile.

Rojas looked like he was starting to hit during the regular season. Let's remember what the Phils' hitting coaches did for Stott and Marsh. IMHO, two quick fixes are available. First, just teach him to lay off pitches that are too high for him to hit. Second, teach him to bunt. I don't know how many bunt attempts he popped up, but it was plenty. Won't be long before the defending 1B and 3B play on the grass when he is up.

Nola has said he likes it with the Phils and it's mutual, so I expect he'll be re-signed and the Phils will have to overpay, cause other teams have already expressed interest and there will be competition. The devil we know. Be nice to acquire another starter.

Many here think the bottom of the pen can be full of projects, as the Phils pen is, but with a little judicious shopping in the bargain basement, some stronger arms should be available and I hope the Phils will sign a couple. And lose a couple projects.

[zambonir]

While we're talking about Hoskins and whether Rojas should start in AAA, every article I read today speculated that if the Phillies don't sign Nola they'd likely include one of Marsh, Rojas or Crawford in a trade for a starting pitcher. When you put it that way maybe signing Snell or another QO FA isn't so bad.