Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[David_Criss]

Former top prospect and 2019 All Star David Dahl signed to a minor league deal as possible Marsh insurance.

[andyb]

If Hall had trade value he would have been traded by now. Frankly I expected him to be in Japan by now because that is essentially where his value is.

[zambonir]

Had the same thought (or Korea). But that's not for everybody. He's got a wife and three kids and his parents were often at his games too.

[zambonir]

Here’s why Matt Strahm expects new Phillies utilityman Whit Merrifield to ‘be a...

But Toronto lost in the wild-card round in each of the last two seasons, with Merrifield coming off the bench and going 1-for-6.

Heck, Jake Cave went 1 for 3 in one season. Pache went 1 for 7.

[allentown]

I hope this doen't turn into a case of 'didn't you used to be Whit Merrifield' but the version of Merrifield which Strahm remembers no longer exists -- he aged out. The 2016-17 Merrifield actually played at a host of defensive positions and did so with a positive dWAR. Recent Merrifield hasn't done that. He also hasn't hit as well. He also has played as much as a starter, including last season. That shouldn't be his role with the Phillies. Is he suited to be a bench player? We have no history to answer that question. Signing him for $8 million really is quite the gamble. Also, far from a given that Merrifield will be a clubhouse positive if he truly becomes a bench player and fails to thrive in that role.

[zambonir]

All of this comes down to what Dombrowski actually promised him, and how Thomson follows through. Of course they could also look like geniuses if he's slightly above replacement level and Marsh gets injured or Rojas flops (to the point where he's hitting so poorly that he need to be back in AAA working on it). Or if Turner or Stott get injured.

Odds are Merrifield will get his 300 ABs without it actually becoming a Thing, because things happen. Harrison plus the players on the bench in that role after he was released certainly did. He just shouldn't get 400 ABs.

Technically he's only getting $7 million, but he's guaranted another $1 million if he's released or neither side takes next year's mutual option. But the money is not incidental - they are paying him to accept a lesser role and a one-year deal whereas the likes of Pham and Duvall are still presumably trying not to do that (and may get paid more too. We'll see).

Marsh is the guy who should be annoyed about this really. They keep saying he's ready to play every day and they keep doing things that say otherwise.

I would personally use this move as another reason to trade Sosa, who is reduced to a more lightly used bench player (especially if they intend to give Merrifield the odd 3B start). Replace Cave with a 3B/OF (not Brad Miller, he's more done than Merrifield) and/or get a LHB SS utility guy. Otherwise bring up Rodolfo Castro and never play him (since Turner rarely sits). Get another utility guy on a minor league deal.

[LoneStarPhan]

I am surprised to see so much negativity here on the signing of Merrifield. It certainly has replaced the negativity of DD not signing anyone of significance for the bench.

[phillychuck]

I'm not that surprised. We paid $8M for a declining, 35-year-old player who was toast in the second half of 2023. It's a pretty long shot that he will regain his form, especially on defense, where he has been a negative player at all positions for half a decade. And we closed off other options at other positions since his salary pretty much eats up whatever space they were willing to use. For me, it was really hard to understand why that gamble made sense.

Grichuck at $2M--I'm in, but I'm not very happy about this signing.

I hope I'm wrong.

[allentown]

I would personally use this move as another reason to trade Sosa, who is reduced to a more lightly used bench player (especially if they intend to give Merrifield the odd 3B start).

That' the big difference in our view. Both Merrifield and Sosa were +0.7 rWAR players last season, although Sosa achieved his 0.7 in fewer ABs. My preference, even discounting the huge difference in cost, would have been for the Phillies to have Sosa's age 28 season, rather than Merrifield's age 35 season. The purported advantage of Merrifield to the team is that he can play so many positions. Sosa can also play many positions but can give better defense. Then you have the extra $8 million to spend elsewhere as a need arises. DD's Achilles heel seems to be nostalgia for now-diminished players, he liked from years-ago prior association. This is a Castellanos-type overpay. $8 million is the correct cost, since I can't imagine the Phillies bring Merrifield back for his age 36 season.

To Lonestarphan:
I never wanted DD to make a significant bench signing. I think that's a prime way a team grows old and shunts its young players to the side. It is the anti-analytical, back-of-the-baseball-card decision making which hurt the Phillies in past years. I see Merrifield as a prime candidate for a very exopensive +0.2 WAR this year.

[zambonir]

While I think there is a lot about these Phillies that does not resemble the old Phillies and we are too quick to respond to some things like it is still the same old Phillies, this one feels like the same old Phillies. i.e., we just signed David Bell, Michael Young, or yes, Josh Harrison, and at a somewhat premium price. I'm sure once the signing is official we are going to hear more about his leadership and experience and versatility as well as the fact that he doesn't strike out a lot (which is not nothing) as the reason why they pounced on him, along with the fact that the other guys wanted more money/years/playing time.

But we'll see how it goes, and how the bottom of the roster really comes together.

Atown, I'm not saying I prefer Merrifield to Sosa. Not at all, and Merrifield also can't play SS. But Merrifield is here, and I think Sosa has trade value. A team with a greater need for a back-up SS, or with more playing time at 2B and 3B, could use him more than the Phillies will. Last year Sosa was basically the top bench bat and glove (and even a starting 3B when Bohm played 1B). Most of those opportunities are gone now, and he's too good for the Wilson Valdez/Eric Bruntlett role.

[phillychuck]

Merrrifield had a .656 OPS, good for a 77 xRC+ in the second half last year, and that included a good July. His OPS was under .600 for August September. He started swinging at everything, which killed his walk rate, and his power has always been below average. At age 34 (now 35) that doesn't look like a slump, it looks like Father Time has arrived.

[zambonir]

If what Harrison was in the second half last year is what he is this year they should really give Scott Kingery more of a chance.

[bkox]

If what Harrison was in the second half last year is what he is this year they should really give Scott Kingery more of a chance

You mean Merrifield?

[LoneStarPhan]

I am 100% behind trying to work young players into positions on the active roster including bullpen and bench roles. I also can appreciate that an older player may fill a need for a limited time, especially in a non-starter role. I expect that Merrifield's role will expand or contract based on how he is doing this season.

I think the Phillies look at him as a potential injury replacement for six starters as well as the more traditional bench role where his starts could give a normal starter a day off. I expect that he will only play second or left field, but Stott could move to short to give Turner a day off, and Marsh could cover center or right field, for a day off for those starters. Merrifield also could start in left, Marsh moving to right, and Castellanos to DH to give Schwarber an off day. Of course, this all fails measurably if Merrifield struggles in the field and with the bat.

As I understand it, the Phillies had already passed into the second tier of the competitive balance levels and even with the Merrifield signing, have plenty of room to make additional moves before hitting the next level, which would involve penalties other than paying the additional tax. While I don't want to see them waste money, they seem to have an owner who is willing to commit crazy money to the team. I think they can still take on payroll in deadline moves if necessary.

Bringing in players in the mid to late thirties remines me of the measurable period following the collapse of September 1964. More often than not, it doesn't really work out.

[zambonir]

Haha yes. I think I will just call him Harrison for the rest of the season.

[BostonRoss]

I am still baffled by the negativity about the Merrifield signing. Why are people so concerned about a guy who is replacing Pache, or maybe Cave. Is it really a risk that those guys will be so much better that it hurts the Phillies in 2024?

It seems that people are dissing Merrifield because he used to be much better than he is now. But he's still better than Pache and Cave (and he was better even in September 2023 when he was so bad). Pache cannot hit RHP, and Cave cannot hit LHP.

It also seems that people are concerned that Merrifield will take away playing time from Rojas or Marsh. If he does, and it's not because of injury or poor performance by the others, then that's a bigger worry than Merrifield's presence. Do we want to keep Cave and Pache so that Thomson won't be so tempted?

I know he's 35, and so do the Phillies. He wasn't signed to take a regular role. If he has fallen off a cliff a la Harrison, then he won't play. Is there evidence that most 35 year olds who fall off drastically from a nearly 1.000 OPS at 34 1/2 for only two months are completely finished?

[zambonir]

As I understand it, the Phillies had already passed into the second tier of the competitive balance levels and even with the Merrifield signing, have plenty of room to make additional moves before hitting the next level, which would involve penalties other than paying the additional tax. While I don't want to see them waste money, they seem to have an owner who is willing to commit crazy money to the team. I think they can still take on payroll in deadline moves if necessary.

My understanding is that the Merrifield deal plus the official Bohm salary took the Phillies from the first tax threshold to the second, though that's not a new tier for them. And they were probably going to spend that $7 million (which is all that counts against this year's payroll and AAV) on someone (or two someones). So it doesn't really change the picture at the deadline, nor were they ever likely to take on enough salary at the deadline to reach Tier 3. If they end up needing something really shiny and expensive there will be money paid by the selling team.

My issue with Merrifield is I wanted a different player. A better player, even if it meant potentially taking away playing time from Rojas or Marsh. Never thought both Pache and Cave would make the Opening Day roster and would be fine if neither of them do (but I do still believe Pache would put up more WAR than Merrifield in LF). For $8 million I think there will still prove to be better options and I'm not so sure that Grichuk wasn't a better one for $1.5 million. A LHB with Merrifield's fielding skill set also might have been good. Yeah, he's shown he can hit RHP but that was when he could hit. That might still make him better than Bohm against RHP but he hasn't actually played much 3B.

Is there evidence that most 35 year olds who fall off drastically from a nearly 1.000 OPS at 34 1/2 for only two months are completely finished?

I would say there definitely is that evidence. Like, most of them, yes. The entire body of work on players over 33 and 34. The ones who aren't are outliers.

[allentown]

But he's still better than Pache and Cave (and he was better even in September 2023 when he was so bad). Pache cannot hit RHP, and Cave cannot hit LHP.

Well, as intimated by Zambonir, I think Merrifield is actually replacing most of Sosa's role. It's not just 26-man roster spots, it's also playing time. I agree that Merrifield is unlikely to be worse than Cave and that Cave really doesn't have a Phillies future, but... I think Pache is a better player than Merrifield and, at age 24 last year, has a chance to be a lot better going forward. We just paid $8 million for a below-average fielder's age 35 season. Note, that in 95 ABs Pache had the same rWAR as Merrifield. He didn't cost much. Also, note that between Pache and Merrifield, only one had an OPS+ as high as 100 and only one had a dWAR which was positive. In both cases, Merrifield was not the one on the positive side of the comparison.

[BostonRoss]

I guess I disagree that Sosa is being replaced here. The Phillies have two backup outfielders and want to replace one with someone with more positional flexibility.

I agree that Pache is much better than Merrifield defensively, but that’s much less important with Rojas playing CF. And Pache’s period of good offense was very short, and nonexistent after his injury. Despite his youth, he doesn’t seem likely to repeat it.

[LoneStarPhan]

Another pitcher signed to minor league contract

RHP Ricardo Pinto reportedly has signed a minor league contract with the Phillies. Ricardo pitched in the Phillies minor league system from 2012 to 2017.