Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[allentown]

Despite his youth, he doesn’t seem likely to repeat it.

Maybe he repeats or even progresses beyond it with just a full recovery from injury and another year of experience. Merrifield also didn't end the season well. I didn't say Sosa was being replaced here, although Zambonir may well be correct that he is now on the trade block. What I meant to say is that Sosa is in danger of losing a big part of his role and ABs to Merrifield, who likely will be given some IF time and all of Sosa's potential OF time. Sosa may be reduced to little more than the guy who replaces Turner one game a week and comes in for IF defense late in games. Sosa had 300 PA last season; with Merrifield in the fold, I doubt he logs 150 PA this season. Merrifield had 592 PA last season. Being DD's buddy and being paid $8 million, I expect he won't be cut much below 400 PA. Cave will be gone, and I won't miss him at all, but he only had 184 PA last season. The bulk of Merrifield's PAs will come from other players. I expect Sosa to be the prime victim.

[allentown]

He stank in his two brief MLB stints but is only 30, so not a bad experiment for ST. Never a big K guy, at least by current status, and always had a big problem with BB.

[zambonir]

I don't think Dombrowski had any prior connection to Merrifield. And I do have some faith that the Phillies wouldn't make this move if their analytics team and manager/hitting coach didn't think it was a good idea. But that was also true of Josh Harrison last year.

I think Marsh loses the most playing time to Merrifield (followed by Sosa when Marsh replaces him in CF). But yeah, if Stott needs a day off it probably goes to Merrifield now. And they've already said they want him to play 3B too.

Sosa was never going to play as much this year as he did last year (when Bohm had to play 1B and neither Ellis nor Clemens ultimately stuck). I just think he makes sense on a team that needs him more, and it doesn't make sense to bring in another RH utility guy (but then it really never made sense to sign the RH Harrison on top of Sosa either. At least Merrifield is more of a proven OF).

I don't think the presence of Rojas in CF is relevant to the ability of Pache vs. Merrifield in LF. Sure, if Merrifield rediscovers his bat, his defense doesn't matter and he'd be more vaulable than a presumably scuffling Pache. But if they are both 85 OPS+ players Pache is better. And I still like Pache's chances of improving and thriving in a part-time platoon role than I do Merrifield's in a broader role, but he's probably better off on another team where he can play CF more too.

[andyb]

Stott did not play an inning of SS last year. Assume the backup there is still Sosa's job. I really am not too excited to see Stott lose ABs potentially at 2B other than resting once or twice a month. If Merrifield plays it should be mainly in LF even if he has the flexibility to play elsewhere. Sosa should be the main backup at SS and 3B. I guess it will be Merrifield at 2B even though that should probably be Sosa too.

My guess is Merrifield gets 200-300 plate appearances absent injuries or a demotion from Rojas. If Rojas wins the opening day CF job then there is a strong chance Pache is gone. So sliding Marsh over and playing Merrifield in LF is the main backup option. Not sure any of us here feel too good about that.

[andyb]

One more player from the minor league free agent bargain bin.

Phillies Sign Austin Brice To Minor League Deal

Not much success in quite a while.

[zambonir]

Turner started 153 games last year, plus 2 at DH. And that was in a year he struggled! 160 the year before. So even if they did try Stott it wouldn't add up to much, and leaves very little for Sosa. He had 39 PAs as a SS last year, 242 as a 3B.

Of course he also wasn't especially good at 3B. Had his struggles in the field and isn't good at the plate (including against RHP and it's not like they are going to sit Bohm against LHP).

[andyb]

Sosa played much more 3B early in the year when Bohm was at 1B. That should not happen much this year. I DO however think that Sosa has the capability of being good at 3B defensively and Merrifield really doesn't. But the lack of a left-handed backup option means Bohm plays most of the time.

[LoneStarPhan]

I expect that both Merrifield and Sosa will be a part of the four-man bench when the season starts. The other two spots will be a catcher and an outfielder.

Playing time for the bench is very dependent on injuries. Losing any starter for a couple weeks or more will provide a temporary starting position for someone. Who gets how much playing time will also depend on who is doing well or who is not.

[zambonir]

It will all fall together when they sign Bellinger and send Rojas to AAA

[Austinfan]

I think the logic behind Merrifield is that he did play well the first half and wore down. So if you limited him to 200-300 PA, you might get first half Merrifield for the whole season.

Last season, he hit .303/.351/.420 in 396 plate appearances through July 31.
In the final two months, he hit only .212/.250/.288 in the season’s final 196 plate appearances.

So if you can get .771 OPS Merrifield backing up 3 or 4 spots, that's worth adding to the roster.

[allentown]

Let's hope that's the way it plays out.

[phillychuck]

I'm not sure that the projection runs that way when you are talking about a player who was always a regular. Maybe less playing time translates to less fatigue, but for many if not most players who were formerly regulars, less playing time translates to being less sharp, and you get their floor rather than their ceiling. I don't know how to predict which of these effects will prevail in Merrifield's case. I don't know that I would spend $8M trying to find out...

[zambonir]

The PHLY guys love the signing and predict he gets 3-4 starts a week. He would have to be back to his first-half self if that's the case (though that would still only add up to around 200-250 PAs, not 399, especially if he's pulled for defense routinely).

I don't think it will be a problem for him to be sharp with less playing time though. It really all depends on his body and bat speed (and foot speed for that matter). The idea that he is benefitting from fewer reps is at least a good theory. He may also just benefit from the off-season.

More reading:

Phillies Take the Walt Whit-Man Bridge

On the wisdom of the Whit Merrifield signing, and a familiar philosophical...

[andyb]

3-4 starts a week in a 26-week season would be close to 90 starts. That would be in the 350-400 plate appearance range because he will probably pinch hit or pinch run in his non starts as much as he loses at bats for defensive replacement.

That is way too many. I want 2 LF starts a week and 2 2B starts a month. That would get him in the 250 AB range.

[zambonir]

Yeah I meant 200-250 in the first four months of the season (or at least the first half). Last year he got 399 before July 31, as AF noted, and was still good. Then he finished with 592 total while being terrible for those last two months.

4 starts would be too many. But he will almost certainly end up with 400 PAs if he is a semblance of his former self. Jake Cave would have last year if he'd been on the roster for 162 games. Sosa had 369 and Merrifield will take some of those too. And there will likely be injuries.

The reality is, the deal is done, he is the #1 bench player, and I just hope they manage his usage both to get the most out of him and so that it doesn't come at the expense of Marsh/Rojas/Stott. We'll see how the other OF bench spot plays out. And if Merrifield turns out to be the guy he was last August/September, we'll see how much rope the Phillies leave him. Shouldn't be more than Harrison if that's the case, money or no money.

[dicemen99]

I don't understand the angst at all about this. If someone is going to tell me that Merrifield is not an upgrade over Cave based on the SSS of the last two months of 2023 you're too deeply invested in your advanced stats.

Bottom line is they upgraded that position with a veteran willing to move to a bench role that has a reputation of being a hard worker with the only cost being money. And money doesn't matter here as they are far under the penalty apron with plenty of room to add pieces. Plus, if DD wants to clear a few million at the deadline do you think he's not creative enough to do this?

Maybe it's his COVID stance from a few years ago that is coloring some of your stances on this. I don't like it either, but you can be pretty sure that he'll likely fit right into that clubhouse with his views.

I don't care. There's really no downside to this. Nobody here can show me a viable alternative that is available.

[Austinfan]

Veterans can adjust to a bench role much easier than young players, who don't understand their bodies and don't have a long memory of dealing with different types of pitchers and how to adjust to them. So that part doesn't really worry me - just whether the dropoff was fatigue due to age or a sign that the "end is nigh."

[phillychuck]

The claim that "veterans can adjust to bench roles better than young players" is one of those things that makes sense superficially, but is not supported by any evidence. In the one study I've read of this issue, position players younger than 27 performed better in non-regular roles than players over 27 with both groups adjusted so that the age discrepancies from 27 were equal. I don't think this has been studied robustly, so either claim could be right. Again, $8M is a lot to bet on either side.

[zambonir]

There's no indication he's replacing Cave. And nobody's using advanced stats, just the same ones from 1950. And we have discussed viable alternatives: Grichuk. Pham. Duvall. Rosario. Given this signing establishes that the Phillies weren't holding out for a $2-4 million player (though Grichuk was that) they could have done better. The fact that Merrifield was willing to accept a bench role is not a testament to his character, it's a testament to the fact that nobody wanted to offer him a better role. The Phillies can afford the overpay if he does turn out to be better than Josh Harrison or Jake Cave, I'll grant you that.

Actually didn't realize Merrifield was (I assume) an anti-vaxxer. Don't think that topic has come up here in a while (certainly didn't see anyone saying Nola shouldn't come back.

[allentown]

just whether the dropoff was fatigue due to age or a sign that the "end is nigh."

Could be both. In any case, it's obvious that 'the end is nigh' for him. It may not slam him this season. As a Phillies fan, I hope the end of his ability to play credible baseball comes after his age 35 season. Also, regardless of how well he does or doesn't play this year, I hope this is his only year with the Phillies. But I regard it as a certainty that for any but the rarest of baseball players, your age 35 season is 'the end is nigh'.

It's an ironic part of baseball's salary process that he will earn more this year than in any prior year of his baseball career, including several years which were legit very, very good.