Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[BaseballCat]

While in general I like this move, I hope we don’t lose Wilson over it.

[zambonir]

You'd rather lose Pache? (I mean, it would make sense to just dump Pache now rather than later but I don't really see Wilson as being that important. And he's a RH IF just like Merrifield (and Bohm, and Sosa). They were going to start trying him in the OF, but instead they got someone with more OF experience.

[zambonir]

Age 32-34 Seasons (Phillies signed Harrison and Merrifield for their age 35 season)
Josh Harrison: .270/.332/.390 102 OPS+
Whit Merrifield: .268/.312/.385 92 OPS+ https://t.co/GPDuTHqJ88

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) February 17, 2024

[BaseballCat]

I just like Wilson. Can’t remember if he has options. If we lose him, we lose him. Still like the signing, even if more pricey than I would like.

[zambonir]

I'm sure he has a lot of options, he's a 29 year-old career minor leaguer! But right now they need a 40-man space not a 26-man space (even though Merrifield will obviously be on the latter and Wilson was almost certainly not going to be initially).

(Looking it up, seriously, this past year was his first. Two options left.)

[jimbomill]

Age 32-34 Seasons (Phillies signed Harrison and Merrifield for their age 35 season)
Josh Harrison: .270/.332/.390 102 OPS+
Whit Merrifield: .268/.312/.385 92 OPS+

https://t.co/GPDuTHqJ88

— Matt Winkelman (

@Matt_Winkelman

) February 17, 2024

I sure hope he becomes a successful version of Ponce de Leon and finds a fountain of youth as $8M for that declining performance is not helpful. But again, I hope!

[zambonir]

Hopefully he and the team are on the same page about his role, and he only plays more if necessary (should he actually produce, or because Marsh and Rojas do need to sit against certain pitchers). Merrifield has generally hit RHP so he could play LF with Marsh in CF once a week, in addition to playing LF against LHP some. What we don't want to see is him standing at 2B or 1B (they say he'll start working out at 3B too but I don't really see the point).

You could also make the case for giving him Cave's spot rather than Pache's but then Stubbs is the only LHB and Pache would really be glued to the bench.

As injury depth it's not a terrible move, just another overpay but that's just not a concern with these Phillies. He's not what he was and he's not really worth $8 million but even in his declining state he can probably still hit major league pitching better than Cave or Clemens or Pache. YMMV on whether those three could do better/improve because they are younger.

[allentown]

just another overpay but that's just not a concern with these Phillies.

Of course it's a concern with these Phillies. They don't have an infinite budget and more needs will develop in-season. They won't have sufficient budget to address them all.

[zambonir]

Just not sure that's true. They have gone past the second tier; if the needs/stakes are high enough at the deadline, they'll go past the next one. Granted, there are consequences to that. We may not agree with it. Or like how they are spending the money. But they are spending it. And some still think they are going to add pitching.

It's also possible they won't need to add any big salaries the rest of the season. They didn't the last two years. That can also have consequences (i.e. you give up more in prospects if you're not taking on $. Or you get a lesser player).

So okay, yeah, it's a concern for us. But not for the people running the team, it seems. Still like it better than the last couple of regime's blind spots.

[allentown]

I also just don't like betting on a guy's age 35 season, when his last two seasons show he faded a lot compared to prior seasons. I keep reading that his positional flexibility is a huge plus, but his dWAR was -0.8 the past two seasons. Earlier in his career he did have neutral to positive dWAR and actually did play a lot of positions. That's not who he is today defensively. Yes, he stole 26 bases last year, but with 10 caught stealing, that's not really a plus. He hasn't had an OPS+ of 100 or better since 2929. $8 mill and losing another young player from the 40-man just is more than he's worth.

[EDmuch]

You like continuing to bet on Cave ?????????

[zambonir]

If Merrifield isn't better than Josh Harrison he'll also be worse than Cave. But that's not really the point of comparison in any case. For one thing Cave hasn't necessarily lost his spot. For the other, with $8 million the bar shouldn't be "better than Cave" but rather, "better than Merrifield."

In both cases, the Phillies are clearly settling for a lesser player (and in Merrifield's case overpaying) because they don't have enough playing time to attract a better player. Inasmuch as that stems from a commitment to Rojas and Marsh, I can respect that.

I don't think it really matters who loses their 40-man spot to Merrifield though. It never made sense to carry both Pache and Rojas so Pache was getting traded or DFA'ed anyway. And if Merrifield replaces Weston Wilson or, who knows, Cave, those guys aren't young either (just younger). Which is really the bigger problem - the Phillies don't actually have any young players in AAA who can help.

My only concern about the money is when you start paying a guy that kind of cash and he's a vet, you also tend to play him more. Harrison rarely played but he wasn't making much (and thus could also be easily released).

[BostonRoss]

I don't understand the criticism of obtaining Merrifield. He was a 2023 All-Star on a team full of All-Stars. It's for one year, and not big money; we don't have to worry about his age 36 season. He is not getting a regular spot, and he is better than all of the bench players the Phillies have now. Sure, he could fall off a cliff like Harrison, in which case they can dump him like they did with Josh, but more likely he is a little worse than in 2023. He could play LF when they want to sit Rojas (Merrifield's platoon splits are almost nonexistent) or DH against a tough lefty. He could pinch-run for Schwarber or Castellanos when it makes sense, and if he stays in the game, there's no loss on defense.

He's basically taking Pache's spot, who has no role unless Marsh isn't ready to go, they send Rojas down, or there's another injury. The Phillies have filled this spot with someone useful.

[BostonRoss]

I mean, it would make sense to just dump Pache now rather than later

I think it would make more sense to wait until they are sure Marsh will be ready for Opening Day and that Rojas is hitting enough to retain his CF spot.

[fish]

I think Pache has a chance to build up some real value by the end of the spring- he’s going to get a lot of ABs and if he shows that he can hit like he did last year (granted it’s just spring) he’s either a godsend to the Phillies if their outfield depth looks shaky in the big leagues or another guy you can claim as a reclamation and flip for a real prospect(s) to help rebuild depth in the system.

[zambonir]

I just think there's not much concern about Marsh - and if he were to be out longer or reinjure himself you probably still prefer Cave (both because he's lefthanded and because he can still outhit Pache, especially from that side). And Thomson has already said Rojas could hit .200 in spring training and still won't lose the job, as long as he's having decent ABs. Heck if Rojas doesn't make the team I don't like any of the LF options! Three sub-average offensive players, only one of whom plays good defense. That "competition" for CF is over already.

I'm not sure Pache can really fool anyone with a good spring training either (any more than Jake Cave did last year). The most you can hope for with him is someone gives you a lottery ticket to keep you from DFAing him (or you DFA him and get a lesser lottery ticket off waivers). It's unfortunate he got hurt so much last year but he was only good in the first half, he had no bat when he finally returned (or in the post-season).

I'm certainly all for keeping Pache and just cutting Wilson or Darrick Hall loose but if you already know for sure that there's no roster spot for Pache and do want to keep those guys, may as well get on with it. If you wait until March 30 every team will know they might get him for free. Give a team a chance to actually have him in ST and they might give you more now.

[Austinfan]

I think Hall has trade value, a team that wants a LH 1B/DH should value him, he has legitimate ML power and isn't a bad hitter - just no place for him on this team. Instead of signing Merrifeld I'd have tried to package Hall and a young arm for a solid reserve.

[zambonir]

He has not shown any ability to hit major league pitching except for that one first-time-through the league stint, even if the injury wrecked his chance to try again last year. The Phillies also could have used him in the Matt Stairs role either of the last two post-seasons and didn't. Heck they started playing Jake Cave at 1B during the season too!

I would imagine they keep him as Harper/Schwarber insurance this year though.

[RolenRules]

I am with Allentown on this signing. Merrifield is now the oldest guy on the team, and faded badly in the second half of 2023. I am afraid that if Rojas goes into even a mild slump, the Phils will plug Merrifield into LF and move Marsh to CF. That move would weaken us defensively in two positions, and I don't think it would be offset by increased offensive production.

[zambonir]

That aspect of it doesn't worry me. Rojas will have to fail spectacularly to lose his job because he's going to AAA if that happens. His job would have been threatened more by the signing of an actual LF.

A mild slump, he'll ride out. A couple of days off a week if he's not hitting RHP? No big deal and might have already happened just with Cave or any LHB bench guy. And he can still have a .650 OPS if he's playing Gold Glove defense.

Sure, if Rojas does go to AAA then I would rather have Pache and Tommy Pham.

I think some of this might go back to last year and losing Hoskins and Harper. Merrifield isn't exactly guaranteed to replace anyone's production any more adequately than Cave or Sosa or Clemens did, but his presence does give them options for just about any injury, including middle IF.

I think it's still going to be interesting to see what the Opening Day bench actually looks like.