Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

I think it's already been proven that what he did in the minors last year, especially in the inflated AAA environment, didn't mean much (and is also a small sample). Ditto spring training. And the the data we have for his six previous seasons doesn't make him look any better even if the career OPS is better than the SSS 2023 OPS.

At 31 I just don't know that he has potential. If he was a truly viable CF then he's a Jankowksi or something. If he was an IF, a Phil Gosselin type. But still basically a AAAA player and depth piece. He made the team last year on merit and then got more chances because Schwarber was already hobbled coming out of the WBC; he also got demoted on merit, and only made the playoff roster because there was literally not another LHB in the system who was better. And so it would be today if the season started tomorrow.

But all of this really gets to the core of the issue doesn't it? When I mentioned that last year's team got by without a fully operational bullpen last year you pointed out that they could have stood to have a better team from Opening Day and won more games by June 2. Playing Cave and Clemens instead of Harper and Hoskins was also part of that. If Marsh were to miss 4-8 weeks of the regular season at any point LF production would be ugly. Pache is your glove guy and 3rd CF, Cave is your bat guy who won't ever actually play CF (even if there's one injury). He needs to have a better bat if so.

He also got nearly 1/3 of his ABs as a 1B last year. So certainly they did prefer him to Clemens in the end - and Darrick Hall too. But I'm still not sure I buy it.

[zambonir]

Can't help but wonder how good Salisbury's sources are too, though he's probably on better terms with Dombrowski than he was with Klentak.

Salisbury says the Phillies are very much in on Montgomery, allude to a RHP bat like Merrifield being signed, and a bullpen move likely happening at the trade deadline @JSalisburyNBCS https://t.co/Usyr7M8TIx

— The ️hight for Red October ( @PhightForRedOct ) February 10, 2024

[allentown]

Other than very frail and very old hitters, I think most hitters perform better as starters, with perhaps a day off per week. When looking at stats of hitters we like, it's very typical to give a positive correction to poor SSS numbers, especially if past or minor league numbers with consistent play are significantly better. I know I've certainly done this with many young Phillies OF prospects in their short MLB careers. The reverse holds for guys we don't like.

DD seems to have a very realistic take on the Phillies OF situation: Cave or Clemons are fine as reserve OFs, but you wouldn't want any of them to have to fill-in as the starter for even 5 weeks. DD seems to want a guy he'd be happy having as a 3rd OF, but realizes that an OF with that ability is now willing to sign as a 4th/5th OF and brand himself as such going forward. He needs to wait and hope that somebody with that ability and needing to reprove himself might become available.

The issue of how many players over 33 we have notwithstanding, the Phillies are becoming an older team and i think DD is doing what he must in counting on our young OFs.

[zambonir]

Well, Cave isn't young and Clemens isn't really in the OF mix. The good news is our two youngest players are the CF and the LF, and Pache is right there with them. Muzziotti never got his chance, Moniak wasn't able to stay healthy (or, before that, productive) for his. Maybe De La Cruz eventually gets the call.

Of course if they just went out and signed Duvall or Pham on the terms they want then we'd have a young OF in AAA again - Rojas.

Wonder if Bellinger is going to end up missing a couple of weeks of spring training by the time he signs (like Harper before him) If so, some guys (and teams) will probably stop waiting for him.

[LoneStarPhan]

The starting pitching depth has been greatly improved with the additions of Max Castillo and Kolby Allard. Both have an option and likely will join Nick Nelson in the AAA rotation. They, along with Mick Abel, Griff McGarry or another break out starter at AA or AAA, provide reasonable depth for the projected 5 starters.

I expect that DD will add someone to the bench mix and the bullpen mix, but would not be surprised to see additions that have option(s). If there were a long term injury to a key player, the Phillies might make a move to bring in someone better to fill the vacancy.

But then, since DD has been in charge, I have been surprised by some pretty significant moves, so there is always the chance that something unexpected happens this spring.

[RolenRules]

Phillies To Sign Spencer Turnbull

Thoughts?

[gmwannabe]

money for an often injured pitcher! Makes sense to me. I guess the Phils have more money to spend. looks like I could have sold Dave some unused Farmland in Alaska.
gm

[LoneStarPhan]

Speculation that Turnbull replaces Covey as the long man in the pen and emergency starter. FanGraphs has already displaced Covey and added Turnbull to the Phillies bullpen on their Roster Resource - Depth Chart for the Phillies.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/phillies

Phillies continue to bring in arms to compete for the roster slots this spring.

[zambonir]

That's like buying a cup of coffee. Of course he's a guy DD drafted.

Speaking of cheap players, one of the blogs noted that only $500K of Cave's $1,000,000 is guaranteed. Not sure exactly what that means, other than they could DFA him and pay him that if he takes an AAA assignment (which he presumably would given the money and every other team would have passed on him in that scenario).

This signing would seem to threaten Covey's spot as well, if Turnbull does make the team that is.

[Aquapong]

Sure…pile up arms and play whomever performs.

[zambonir]

It's also insurance. If our current rotation 1-5 breaks Clearwater in perfect health, let Covey and Turnbull fight it out (though it probably can't make Covey feel too good that the other guy makes more money and has more incentives). If not one of these guys (or Allard) is the 5th starter (Strahm presumably stays in the pen).

[zambonir]

This points out Turnbull has option but can refuse the assignment.

Phillies and right-hander Spencer Turnbull agree to a one-year deal

[fish]

This points out Turnbull has option but can refuse the assignment.

Pretty similar stuff as Lorenzen…when he’s healthy.

[andyb]

Clearly they wanted starting depth. All it takes is one injury also for the staff to carry another pitcher (i.e. Covey and Turnbull). They are spending money on players they might not use, so that is interesting and a little refreshing.

[phillychuck]

Covey projects to about 0 fWAR by the prediction engines, Turnbull to about 0.5 fWAR. On that basis he's an upgrade. They have Covey at about 50 IP and Turnbull at about 75, although there is some variance in Turnbull's projected workload which is probably injury-related.

Throw them both at a wall and see who sticks, I guess...

[zambonir]

We kind of saw that same willingness to spend with all the 60-day DL moves in 2022. Technically they could still release either Turnbull or Covey before their salaries become guaranteed in ST though teams rarely seem to do that.

With full health one of them plus Brogdon still has to be traded or snuck through waivers if they want an optionable arm at the bottom of the pen.

Both of them a lot cheaper than Lorenzen who projects to about their combined innings and 1.3 or 2.0 WAR, if he can actually find that job (and he might not be as expensive as once thought. Not that I think the Phillies should have kept him).

[Austinfan]

Turnbullis is also another year away from TJ surgery, which makes him a good upside play. Maybe he comes to camp and surprises with his old velocity.

[zambonir]

Also a Boras client. Phillies like Boras clients.

[andyb]

Both of them a lot cheaper than Lorenzen who projects to about their combined innings and 1.3 or 2.0 WAR, if he can actually find that job (and he might not be as expensive as once thought.

I am wondering if Lorenzen will be reduced to something like a 1 year/$5 million deal with incentives because I think most teams look at him as a swingman rather than a starter. He just has not shown he can handle starter innings.

[zambonir]

In a vacuum I would have thought he could still get $7-8 million (Matt Strahm makes $7.5) but the fact that he wasn't able to even show any value as a reliever for the Phillies had to hurt him. I would think there are still some jobs out there though, market is still just frozen by Boras, just like with the OFs.

Also, MLBTR reminds that Phillies roster is full. Not that there aren't plenty of candidates, but someone's gotta go for Turnbull.